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Overall about 25% of OMU is its holding in Nedbank.
The NED share price has increased 4x since lows of last year which means OMU is trading in low 52p plus 18p Nedbank. The distribution is currently just over 11p per share.
When OMU was about 110-120p, Ned was about 30p.
That the regulators are happy to reduce the investment shows they are comfortable with the balance sheet of the group…..security is their first priority…..OMU is secure and market confidence should mean trading improvements flow quickly into the SP.
There is a risk they will make more covid provisions, but these should be lower than in the past and operating cash flow looks robust to be able to cope f they do without impacting the capital position of the company.
Overall I think the outlook is improving.
Thanks for highlighting the RNS
It is a continuation of the deconstruction of the old mutual group.
Nothing wrong in giving it to SH. The distribution makes up about 16% of the current Value.
Last time it happened, my platform did a bulk sale about 3m after that I opted into.
There are three options
Receive and hold Nedbank
Receive and sell nedbank or
Sell before the distribution
It depends how your shares are held and whether you want to hold A South African bank directly.
I will review in October…..if the sp has gained i May just take profits and buy back after the distribution.
Hi Jatw
Did you notice the 'unbundling' RNS after close of play today? We are to receive some Nedbank shares (possibly)! Any opinion on that? Seems an odd thing to do to me. It is a strange time to offload a banking asset.
I agree with your sentiment andsoforth.
I have been adding recently for a long term recovery……however we know markets look forwards and can run the sp up anticipating recovery, hence I would not want to be out of the market at the moment. Equally the markets punish unexpected bad news….so this is one to have on the more speculative end of a diverse portfolio.
IMO it is a buy at current levels, but worth waiting to see if the HY results include major new provisions.
Recovery is happening, but VERY slowly. There is continued uncertainty, especially around potential payouts in life assurance due to the pandemic. However management seem to be coming good on their promises to keep shareholders informed and to effectively mage capital. This is not one for widows and orphans, but in a couple of years this should come good.
Looking across the globe many life assurers / asset managers are trading at pre covid levels. OMU is an exception it is still 30-40% off. Southern Africa may be different to other parts of the world in its ability to deal with the pandemic, but it does not seem to warrant such a discount for OMU.
I anticipate much of this discount to unwind this year.
My target is 90p at the year end.
Other views?
I am pleased OMU is embracing the market and providing quarterly trading updates.
I would have liked a comparison of Q1 21 vs Q4 20 to show continued progress, but the comparison with Q1 20 is highly favourable.
Early trading shows OMU.JO rising strongly.....may that continue throughout today.
I feel this share will respond well once the RSA makes progress with tackling the pandemic.
There are mixed reports in the press reporting a new wave and also inoculation starting for 60+.
The southern winter is commencing....the next few months will be important but they should be on a better path come October and their hot season.
Quite a substantial buy signalling undervaluation of OMU.
Last year the CEO of the company I work for bought and the stock has doubled. Directors are quite good at recognising under valuations.
Hoping to get back to 90-100p this year.
I like the positive AUM and the NEt customer cash flows. These point to better times ahead once the claims and disruption of the pandemic pass.
The dividend was a surprise....clearly the business has sufficient capital and is performing well enough to pay it......I doubt the PRA would let a UK company whose profits were down 75% and 85% in operating profits to pay a dividend, even a much reduced one.
35c dividend just declared. almost 3% yield. Not bad considering the circumstances. Hopefully quickly back up to approx. 100c divi next year
When the market only drops 3% on a massive profit warning, you have to think this is at the bottom and can only go up from here.
Seems to react to Covid vaccine news.....bad news yesterday about AZ now the govt has moved on to other vaccines it recovers.
Spotted by management....when the pandemic eases in Southern Africa ther will be a bounce in this SP.....
Hoping for 90p later this year.
Emerging markets set to be a beneficiary?
Can’t see anything specific on the news sites.
Most likely some macro economic reason....has RSA been downgraded? Or published a new budget?
Any one have news why this has been battered today ?
Someone is going to take advantage of this low sp to bulk up in Africa..£.4bn probably gets a sale....and looks like a bargain in 2-3 years time.
Possibly the bottom has been reached..
Probably not worth it after all! All metrics down 70%.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/old-mutual-ltd--omu-/rns/trading-statement/202008240700099427W/
Sales down, claims up, income down.
Yes definitely.
Hopefully back into 60s this week.
A direct play on the health of South Africa....which has been poor and not helped by the pandemic.
A long term play
The trading update on 28 May suggested EPS would be significantly lower than last year, with an expected decline of 20%. This WILL be reflected in a reduced ongoing dividend. But the company also stressed its strong balance sheet, which must have been helped by the recent demerger. The final results in March, though now very much historic, were remarkably decent. Return on NAV was 15% and the solvency ratio sat at 166%. Uncertainty reigns, but with the price here at c50p, it strikes me this could be seen as cheap in the longer term.
Just received my dividend today .
One of the few banks still paying a divi.
It’s difficult to say but I have purchased a few over last couple of weeks definitely a keeper.