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Agree completely. Profitable, debt free, growing steadily and it was indeed quite an accolade to receive such a prestigious award. Yes this is a rare beast on AIM ie. a genuinely good investment! However it's held very tightly so poor liquidity and pitiful volume. On the upside it wouldn't take much to get this moving up from here though. Some would say this is fairly valued at the current time but I take the view that since growth record has been good it is cheap looking forwards and pays a dividend. I see the SP ticked down slightly purely on lowering the bid - ask remain same - I call that a 'false fall' and 'may' indicate something's moving! Strong hold for me.
Awarded second place in the European Small and Mid-cap Awards in the 'Rising Star' category. Good to see recognition in Europe for the quality of this company. Hopefully the market will catch on eventually I'm sure although this is a profitable, debt free and growing company. That seems to count for little on the AIM casino lol.
Im buying here again now. Undervalued IMO. Worth about 18p based on current forecasts i think. Anyone disagree ?
this is heading towards buy price again.
cloggers, I didn't realise you were invested here too! what did shares mag say?
Got us some interest :-)
This has gone quiet. Anybody know if we are likely to see movement soon?
(from preceding message, posted at 23:36) In the past, I have read some of the novels of the distinguished Victorian, Mr Anthony Trollope, who is plainly less well-known here than in England. Although I do not understand all of the political aspects of the novels of Trollope, the subtle, recurring Trollope theme of propinquity is quite special. Why do I make this point? I am struck by this coincidence: Out of the dozens of shares that I have evaluated, I mentioned JIL to you. And your dad knows the chairman. Maybe this is not an endorsement of JIL per se, but JIL may well be a sound investment. I sense that JIL are quite careful about the decisions to invest in various litigation matters. Getting back to the great author, Mr Trollope, my thinking is that a QC who happens to know the father of a brainy young poster justifies, at least to a limited extent, the confidence of this potential investor. That is all I should say about JIL for now. ----- On Monday in London and on Tuesday in Sydney, OEX (Oilex) had a little pop. I would have liked to see a little follow-through in London today, but I think that it is fitting to acknowledge here that "Rome wasn't built in a day." A favorite expression of mine. ----- Market sentiment in NY seemed to repair itself on Tuesday afternoon after much weakness late morning through lunchtime. I think the pundits would describe the trading day here as choppy. I wonder whether it is a good sign that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a correction is in view. I never short stocks because it calls for a discipline that is different from the one which I practice, but I found a recently floated share that looks expensive to me. Called Venture Life Group plc. I think the symbol is VLG. I think the market capitalization is about 27 million GBP. The offering document is replete with references to prospective products and revenues, but the prospects seem a little too unclear to me. Only if you have a little extra time, I would be pleased to know your assessment. Rob
Hi Dan, I am glad that my short disquisition regarding A/R made sense; but a small clarification might still be warranted. Something that you had asked called upon me to explain as follows: that revenues are customarily booked onto the income statement when (a) services are provided and when (b) goods are shipped. If financial reporting were a little stricter, companies would not book revenues until the payments arrive. But companies never postpone the booking of revenues until the payments arrive. Because revenues are booked upon the occurrence of the above-described (a) and (b), it is a little aggressive to analyze a balance sheet as though 100% of A/R will be turned into cash. Most companies have some small percentage of A/R that will in due course be written off. I should have drawn your attention to this point when I was writing. ----- I see the pop in SPSY. I looked at this company because it was the subject of one or two General Chat posts of yours. I do like the quiet corners of the market (e.g., Camellia plc), but I think we both know that the quiet shares can stay quiet for a long time. So I was indecisive re SPSY. ----- After I wrote to you very late last night (Tuesday a.m.), I stayed up a little more. My buy order for ACTA was the first execution of 15.04.2014. Then I quit for the night. Now that British summer time has started, the difference is back to five hours. On Monday, I had tried to buy some ACTA a bit below 7p, and when they would not execute my order, I decided that I am willing to pay the offer price. I think some orders were executed @7.10p or 7.15p after my buy. In the long run, this may mean nothing, but there is something about ACTA that feels good to me. Within the past six months, I have watched two comparable, clean-energy Toronto shares (viz., Ballard Power and Hydrogenics, symbols BLD.to and HYG.to, respectively) do very well, so I am thinking that ACTA may soon have its day. But very speculative. So please study before making any decision. ----- I am struck by your statement that your dad knows the JIL chairman. I remember that the chairman is a QC named Lord Daniel Brennan. I think it needs hardly be said (in harmony with one of the past discussions between you and me) that a prominent individual such as Lord Daniel Brennan is likely to try hard to ensure that JIL continues to be properly managed. That does not guarantee that the shares will soar, but it means to me that the shares are likely not to be brought low by nefarious activities. I do wish that, by reason of the risky nature of the investments held by JIL, the shares were quoted at a discount to tangible book value, but I still like them. I will make a comment that might seem faintly off-topic, but it really is not off-topic. (continued)
Hi Rob, CAM sounds like a good board for us to move to. I’m happy with that, and thanks for sharing a bit of history with me there. No problem re: VLK. As for your following comment: I was 100% fundamental analysis based at one stage but I’ve recently started paying more attention to the charts because 1) some shares look incredibly undervalued but are perhaps at risk of being that way for months, potentially years, in which time you could have put your money to better use therefore I recently was weighing up whether to buy into AEO or SPSY. I chose the former because I thought it was more likely to rise over the next 12 weeks than SPSY. 2) I’ve seen some of the gains people have had from using reading the charts and would love to emulate them. So far not so good though because, as I said, I chose AEO over SPSY. AEO rose at first but has since fallen to just below my buy in price, whereas SPSY has risen 37% since, and the buy in price has moved from 19p (when I first spotted it) to 26p! Ah you already own some CAP shares? Haha great minds think alike, eh? I will look at ACTA soon but I can tell you now that the London townhouse is most certainly overpriced. The housing market in London is absolutely ridiculous and has totally priced me out of living anywhere too near where I work. That explanation of A/R was superb. Thanks for that mate – I can totally understand why you see it as such a negative when it is rising! JIL is so under the radar and yet you’ve managed to find it! Well done. I spotted it previously but only because of my dad. My dad, a qualified but not-practicing lawyer, knows Juridica’s chariman y’see. JIL pays a superb dividend and has recently embarked on some share buy back scheme but I’ve never gotten close to buying because corporate litigation is well and truly outside my sphere of understanding. Very best regards to you across the pond, Dan
to expand at a faster clip than revenues have expanded. Occasionally, expansion of A/R could be benign, but the reason that it is a danger sign goes like this: say a manufacturer is selling clothing to a merchant; say that the customary sales terms are "60 days, net"; say that the clothing does not seem to be selling to the retail purchasers in the expected volume; then the merchant may either refuse to pay (requesting the manufacturer to take it back) or the merchant will be unable to pay. That is a bad situation for a manufacturer to be in. Maybe he will have to engage a lawyer to sue the merchant, and maybe the merchant will defend the lawsuit by saying that the clothing was unsaleable. The expanded A/R might turn into a bad debt which will eventually be a write-off, i.e. resulting in a reduction in shareholders' equity. Manufacturers usually don't mention that A/R has expanded too rapidly. But if year-over-year revenue has risen only 5%, then why should A/R have risen 10%? If the revenue rise is a valid indicator that the manufacturer is marketing desirable merchandise, the merchants should be happy to pay for it promptly in the hope that the manufacturer will replenish the merchant's inventory with interesting new inventory. When merchants promptly pay, then A/R should not, in my opinion, rise any faster than revenue. It's all a big cycle, you see. A/R that rises to a greater extent than revenue is (to me) a cause for caution. Remember, my friend, revenues appear on the income statement. Accounts receivable appear on the Balance sheet (sometimes called "Statement of Financial Condition"). I hope that my explanation helps you a little. On your side of the pond, everyone is probably waking up or has already woken up. Over here, past my bedtime, but I did at least wish to correct my error re CAP and ACTA. Over the weekend, I did find an interesting income share, JIL, but maybe I should have spotted it earlier. Seems to be a rather a suitable share for people who are conversant in corporate litigation. Let us hope that Tuesday is good for all. Rob
Hi Dan, In the event that there is criticism here about off-topic discussion, I will mention a good alternate bb: CAM. This is Camellia plc, which is in part an agribusiness operation. Very old-line company, including tea estates in Sri Lanka. I have forgotten how long CAM has been incorporated, but I think it is well over 100 years. I am the only poster there in the past six months or more. I was drawn to the company ages ago when a famous US commodities investor (who has since expatriated to Singapore) mentioned it in the Barron's Roundtable, an annual discussion by some distinguished investors. I think CAM was quoted ca. 30 pounds then, today it is quoted ca. 100 pounds. Your friend is a proud holder of 35 shares of Camellia plc. Every evening when I fix a cup of tea, I think maybe I am contributing in a token way to the cause of the company. For now, no need to migrate to CAM unless you are so inclined. I look at the share quote each day. I think the annual financials are due soon, but to be completely candid, I forget. Thank you for your comments about VLK. I am a bit surprised that you prefer to wait for a break-out. I am not saying that that is unwise. I just think of you as more a fundamentals-based investor than one who adheres to technical analysis. I try to be receptive to both. Maybe one should wait for a break-out at VLK. I don't know. I did get the impression that the PB acquisition adds a favorable dynamic to the company. I made a mistake when I mentioned CAP. I already own some. The company about which I had intended to ask you -- the company that was founded by a gentleman named Paolo Bert -- is called ACTA, which is both the name and the symbol. The company's operations are in the north of Italy, but I am quite sure it is quoted only on AIM. It seems very promising to me. One of the posters on the ACTA board has attached a youtube link to a forum in Hannover, Germany which was attended by Mr Bert on 07.04.2014. I do not claim to be able to understand the science. But I thought that someone made a shrewd observation yesterday on the ACTA bb. That the market cap for ACTA is about the same as that for a lovely townhouse in London, 12 million GBP. I think that, when one starts to evaluate the prospects for ACTA, it does not seem to be trading expensively. On the other hand, maybe the townhouse is overpriced, I am not sure. Happy to tell you what accounts receivable are. They are listed on financial statements as current assets because the expectation is that they will be turned into cash within 90 days. Generally abbreviated in the accounting and bookkeeping worlds as A/R. The idea is that customers purchase goods and services on the understanding that the customers will pay with reasonable promptness. If the goods and services are as promised and if the vendee is reputable, the A/R will indeed become cash. But A/R is generally not expected (continued)
Hi Rob, Thanks - it’s fun to read your letters too! Ah I had not noticed that. Just quickly could you explain the significance of the accounts receivable figure? Is the issue that it is money owed to the company which they may or not receive, and yet they include it in the revenue figure? Sorry but I’m really unfamiliar with it. I’m not in VLK because I am waiting for it to break through 50p, which really seems to be a barrier for the company, but I’m a big fan of the company myself. It’s undervalued, has a great BoD, is in a strong financial position, and is growing fast. Vislink’s fast growth has been organic so far but it has just acquired Pebble Beach which should really help too. Pebble Beach (PB) has revenue of £5.6m and pre-tax profits of £1.3m. As you can see the revenue isn’t huge but it’s high margin, and the amount PB will contribute will probably be higher than the figures I just gave you in the coming year. Of course the takeover used up all the cash they had previously but, in my opinion, it was better for them to make that move to accelerate their growth rather than let the cash sit in a bank account, and they did buy PB very cheaply! Thanks for the equitydevelopment link – I look forward to reading what they have to say, and will probably post it on the VLK bb unless you beat me to it lol. Ah it’s interesting you mention CAP because it’s a stock I’ve considered buying previously following el1te rating the company as a ‘Buy.’ I’m not sure if you’re familiar with el1te but he’s a superb analyst who has largely influenced my investment style. He judges stocks by fundamental analysis like me but then uses technical analysis to time his entry. He is ultimately a value investor so the fact he chose to put CAP in his portfolio really surprised me. However, having read his analysis, I can see that CAP is easily one of the safest speculations you could make. That reminds me - you know I told you that Stockopedia’s Paul Scott really likes SNTY? Well he is similar to you and I in that he’s always on the lookout for undervalued stocks yet he loves SNTY, despite admitting it isn’t a stock he usually goes for. It’s also worth noting he is invested in VLK too. Thanks for asking but my insurance broking results are not for ages, I don’t hear anything til June! And yes maybe it is time for us to migrate to a different board. I’ll let you decide which :) Best regards as ever, Dan
Hi Dan, No apologies. It is fun to read your letters when you get the chance to send them. In large measure we are in accord that China stories are very risky. I did not know that one of the companies mentioned by me pays dividends in shares only (so-called scrip dividends, I guess). Anyway, my reason for staying away is that the accounts receivable in both CAMK and NBU seemed to be growing faster than revenues, and that is for me a cause for caution. I own a couple of China plays quoted in Canada; my paper profits to date might allow me to splurge on a small serving of Won Ton soup in a Hong Kong restaurant, and that is all. So I am not adding to my China plays. I am not sure whether you have taken a position in VLK. I recall reading a post of yours about this company. Then, I was reading on www.equitydevelopment.co.uk a quite good write-up of this company. I do realize that that website publishes research reports that are funded by the quoted companies themselves, but I still think there is integrity in the process. I would add here a link to the VLK report, but I am not sure I would be successful in this endeavour. I would welcome your thoughts on VLK. Also on equitydevelopment.co.uk, there is favourable coverage about CAP. This is a hydrogen-clean energy story. The founder, Paolo Bert, has a very substantial holding, and he added shares last year at the time of the place. In North America, there have been spectacular gains in the share prices of some similar companies, so I am asking myself whether CAP may be the next one to blossom. CAP is run from the north of Italy, but it is AIM-quoted. I concede that CAP is speculative, but it offers to the potential investor much more than a concept. The company have some revenues, and I think they have some form of cooperation agreement with Ballard Power, which is a Canadian company the shares of which have soared in price. When will you receive news of your results on the insurance broking exam? I understand that you are a little apprehensive, but my crystal ball is showing me something good. Did you notice that this board is getting a little busy? A migration might be needed before long. Regards, Rob
Agree its hard to read. Director selling is normally a red flag for me but institutional buying is a green light. I was looking to add to my position here but i think i will sit and wait a little longer to see what happens.
All Directors exercising their Warrants and Institutions buying. Institutions loading up having been given the nod significant news on the way Or Directors know no significant news due for a long time and happy to take current sp
Dear Rob, Apologies for my delay in replying! Yeah maybe it did to a certain extent. That guy stalks me and is a bit of nightmare to be honest. The continued weakness has recently made me doubt my bullishness there but, at least for the mean time, I have no intention of selling. SFE is a superb little share. It’s an under the radar, undervalued, growing, dividend-paying company that should benefit from the UK’s booming housing market and surge in consumer confidence. I only have a tiny holding there but I’m a big fan of the stock myself. Glad to hear FOX is going well. How has your other stocks been performing lately in this difficult investing environment? It seems like SNTY is going from strength to strength and – little fact for you – Stockopedia’s Paul Scott, a well-respected analyst, shares your love of the stock. I’d avoid Chinese stocks. As a true value investor of course I came across CAMK and NBU and initially thought ‘what a no brainer’ but didn’t have the cash to invest in either. That was when el1te trader covered them on his blog. They then declined and were in such a downtrend by the time I did have some money I avoided them. Then superb Simon Thomspon, from the British “Investor Chronicle” magazine, put them in his 2014 Bargain Portfolio and they both rose only for them to resume their downtrend. My point is, after watching for months, I’ve decided that the market clearly really distrusts both of these companies so – whether their accounting is honest or not – they won’t do well. In regards to NBU in particular, the bears at shareprophet’s did some serious research into NBU and concluded that it looks very dodgy and shorted it for a while. It’s also worth noting that NBU’s dividend is actually paid in further shares, not cash, and so I don’t see the dividend as a positive thing there at all. I will look at TIDE and IFM for you. But, considering you say it’s risky, I can’t see me going for them because it really feels like a good market correction is occurring / on its way and so I’m looking for stocks that should do well even in a bear market to be honest. I’m looking for safe bets more than ever (which could explain why I recently took the plunge with SAFEstyle haha!). Thank you ever so much for wishing me well. It is insurance related – it was the “insurance broking practice” exam in fact. Thank you also for having such confidence in me (although I have failed an exam before). I’m a scholarly individual but I may have just failed the exam on Monday. I started revising too late due to underestimating the difficulty of the module, and – to make matters worse - barely any of the stuff I memorised to heart back up. Instead the most obscure parts of the book got into the exam so I now think I’ll be lucky to pass it unfortunately
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidprosser/2014/04/04/the-top-10-ipos-on-aim/
Well, one thing is quite clear: by reason of the limited universe of posters here, no one is likely to complain about an off-topic discussion. Nice to hear from you. I had noted shortly after your post of 14.03.2014 that, by reason of something that you had written here about MOS, someone criticized you on the MOS bb. In reliance on a phrase which lawyers sometimes employ, I wondered whether the criticism on that bb had had a "chilling effect" on your inclination to write here. More importantly, I wondered whether the continuing weakness at MOS may have caused you to exit that share. I certainly understand that the drip-drip of a declining share takes a toll on one's sense of mastery, and sometimes it is better to bid adieu. I note that you are a proponent of SFE, and it is performing. I am delighted about that. I am not sure I have any useful wisdom to impart this morning. I continue to keep an eye on many shares. I bought some SBS on 03.04.2014. I had considered this company last month while it was quiet in the 12p range, but I just did not make a decision. I like the story. I have a favorable view of the directorate. We shall see. One company that I think I mentioned to you a few weeks ago seems to be moving in a good direction, Fox Marble, symbol FOX. I also think I mentioned CRV, which has performed poorly. I wonder whether (like most on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean) you stay faraway of China shares. Everyone is suspicious of the accounting, but I ask myself whether the very low valuations serve in an adequate way to compensate an investor for the accounting risk. CAMK and NBU are two London-quoted China shares that I have noticed. Both are manufacturers of branded clothing, both are reporting profits, both pay dividends, and the PE's are very low. I was getting ready to take a chance with NBU, but then I grew concerned about the accounts receivable at both. I started to think of that expression "If something sounds too good to be true ...," but I just cannot make up my mind. Non-China-related stories that I am watching include TIDE and IFM. Both very low-priced, and plainly risky. Independent research on the part of any potential investor is essential. I corresponded via e-mail with the CEO of TIDE, and I was impressed by his willingness to communicate in an ostensibly candid way. His name is Mr Whipp, and my recollection is that he is the largest shareholder. I wish you success with your exam on Monday. I do not know the subject. Related to insurance? In any event, I have a reasoned basis for expressing some confidence that you will do well. That basis is that you are a scholarly individual. I will make a guess that you have never failed an exam to date, so why would you fail this time? Regards, Rob
Long time no speak. Apologies for not replying to your last message btw - March was a dreadfully busy month. I'm still going 100mph now tbh but that's for a different reason - I'm revising as hard as I can for an exam I'll probably fail on Monday haha! How are you doing? I hope you're doing well, and I hope your investments are too! I've missed our chats so I hope to hear from you soon, you kind gent. Kind regards, Dan
Hi Dan, I am sensing that, both here and there, the political issue in Ukraine is affecting sentiment. Those with hard-earned funds invested in the market should probably be a little extra careful right now. I had thought that the dust was settling in Ukraine, but now I think otherwise. Having expressed myself cautiously, I will say that you might like to read some of the posts at ARC, Arcontech. Especially in light of its being a low-priced [ca. 0.20p] share, some good minds think ARC is going places. Re OEX, I find I haven't too much more to say than I wrote recently. I wish I could "pause" this message and check the market cap, but I think that that cannot be done. There was a recent placing, so the co. is cashed up. The story makes sense to me. The gas well which is about to be fracked on the subcontinent is adjacent to the gas well which was abandoned for technical reasons, i.e. not because the gas wasn't there. Among other things, I was drawn in by a remark that it would be really unusual for the technical reason to appear again this time. Neither you nor I is predisposed to commodities, yet I am making an exception. While on the subject of predispositions, I feel that companies which invest in office towers are better positioned that companies that invest in retail shopping centres because I think that the trend towards e-commerce does not augur well for retail. I realize that not so many people are about to order groceries from an e-commerce website, but just about everything else, an increasing number of people seem minded to skip the shops. So I feel that office towers are a better long-term investment. I have never mentioned the property sector to you, but it just seems like something to mention. Not familiar with boohoo.com but it sounds like part of the social media craze. If so, I am happy to leave it to other participants; I see it as the 21st century version of tulip bulbs in the 17th century. Note that I call the boohoo crowd participants, not investors. I may be wrong, but I would guess that 9 out of 10 boohoo purchasers could not tell you what the letters in the acronym EBITDA signify. Maybe they will do fine, but I prefer to look elsewhere. I thought of another Warren Buffett-ism that might drive home the point. Warren says that we won't know which people are swimming without bathing suits until the tide goes out. BTW, maybe it is not so well known in England that Mr Buffett took courses ca. 1949 at Columbia University from guest lecturer Benjamin Graham. Maybe you knew, maybe not. When I stop to think that few people in this country are able to identify important English people such as Stephen Hawking or the late Isaiah Berlin, it may not be well-known in England that B Graham was Warren's mentor. I know a bit about shan. Maybe we are in accord: that he brings wisdom to some bb's. Regards, Rob229
It turned out a big reason he felt that way was because riddler said about one stock (the name escapes me now) that it was really undervalued and due a big rise. Then one year later at the same price he said he wasn’t so keen on the stock without much explanation why. Riddler replied to him saying that the reason for his change of opinion was due to the macroeconomic changing remarkably due to the unrest in Egypt and said he would have thought people would have been aware of the biggest news story of that year; that he was being honest both times. Moosh understood and seemed genuinely apologetic and then stopped posted altogether. But I think that whole episode taught me a lesson – don’t focus on one thing so much that you miss the bigger picture. I agree that the most successful stock-market people trade in the short term either, and it’s almost certain that Buffett never looks at RSI. But I actually think there’s a value to it. You may want to buy and hold a stock forever but buying in at the right time could significantly improve your returns. The same goes for when you choose to top up. I learnt this the hard way with BMN, when I topped up when the RSI was 75 only to watch the price fall 30% thereafter, and that’s probably why it is the one TA indicator I keep an eye on when I feel a share might be in overbought territory. Re: Chariot, I was clearly mistaken. (Sorry to hear about shares in NY trouble) Glad you liked the link. The discussion on the seasonality of the market and whether we’re on the brink of a market downturn has continued thereafter btw. Especially considering boohoo.com was floated at £560m (56 x EBITDA of £10m) and it’s actually risen today!! Yeah there’s lots of under the radar stocks with potential mentioned on that thread. It’s one of the reasons I regularly read it actually. Most of them are thanks to a poster called ‘shan’ who seems to find some real crackers! Interesting anecdote you got there. Sounds like an ingenious way to make money tbh! Got to dash. Kind regards, Dan
Haha that’s a very astute observation you’ve made because I’ve recently been thinking that I live as if I’m older than I am, that I’m where people are after they decide to “settle down” haha! I don’t quite know why I am how I am but I’ve been a bit like this for years to be honest with you. I was only 17 when I developed a very keen interest in politics for instance, I then had to work harder than most people at uni due to the fact my course didn’t suit me (I did not study A Level maths or economics and usually a good grade in at least one of them is a prerequisite to study Economics at university) and because I decided to essentially study journalism on the side before setting up and running my own newspaper, etc. I go through periods where I become absolutely fascinated by something for a while to the extent I rate learning more about whatever over more frivolous things. In all honesty I think I’m a bit odd like that and, despite the fact it often leads to success / a superior knowledge in that particular subject than most, I think it’d perhaps be healthier for me to just do what everyone else does of my age. Yes I remember you saying before. I have your maxim that you like “chefs to eat their own cooking” stashed away in my brain I’m so fond of it. I don’t pay as much attention to the BoD than you clearly but, having read your thoughts on the matter, I feel as though I will pay more attention to it in the future. Blimey your university graduate must have made a fortune on nothing but a good feeling! Bravo to him. Good investing does involve a blend of fundamental analysis and technical analysis, and being ahead of the pack is essential. If you spot a stock that’s undervalued, leave it 6 months to invest, you may find that the pack has found it and it’s now fairly valued etc. I think I mostly agree with your maxim – there are not any set in stone rules to good investing. And Investing is certainly both an art and a science, and I think those who try and make it too much of a science will make mistakes because of it. The best example of that I can think of is Moosh. He religiously studied the charts and was a TA wizard, but he stopped commenting on LSE altogether following a very public spat, where he said riddler dishonestly ramped various stocks he was in and then cleared off without telling others. (...)
2 more small points: You said Chariot. I do not know that one. Maybe you meant OEX, which had a better day on Thursday. (But trading in shares in NY was terrible on Thursday afternoon, i.e. after the close in London), so Friday may be a give-back day. Ukraine issues stirring again, I believe. In the link which you kindly gave me, I found a mention of an interesting share, which was floated only four months ago. Symbol EUSP. I do not remember who among the posters likes it. The price has risen from 24p to 40p. The founder, a former McKinsey & Co. consultant, holds ~11% of the shares. I have not made any definite decisions, but maybe EUSP exhibits some of the characteristics that I like. Am going to watch. A funny analogy for you to contemplate. EUSP is a Software as a Service ("Saas") model. This model reminds me of the practice of law. For multiple clients, a lawyer makes minor adaptations of his usual service; yet each client is charged as though the service had been created for him or her. Now very late here. Quitting for the night. Happy trading on Friday morning. Regards, Rob
Hi Dan, I enjoyed the link. You are plainly smitten with the market. Quite extraordinary at your age. I might have written here a few weeks ago that many people in their twenties seem to find pleasure in frivolities such as Twitter, video games or insipid television shows. What has caused you to rise above those things? I respect your determination to unlock secrets to trading success, whether the secrets be technical analysis, fundamental analysis such as EV/EBIT ratio; but to me, a necessary ingredient even though an almost ineffable one is the ability ahead of the pack to perceive a trend. Another often-beneficial ingredient is evaluation of the quality of the board. I like to invest alongside directors who have had past successes in related fields, directors who are neither too young nor too old, directors who have significant shareholdings and modest salaries, directors who have a lot to lose (e.g., a chartered accountant, a solicitor, a registered engineer). People like that are generally motivated to refrain from shady conduct because shady conduct could jeopardize their professional licenses. I know no way that the ingredients discussed above can be rolled in a convenient way into either technical or fundamental analysis. I have a friend who, over a period of perhaps five years, held Apple shares from ~ 95 dollars to ~ 420 dollars because he believed that the products were nifty, that Apple shops were innovative and that the public would decide to join the party. This friend, though a university graduate, has probably never read a cash flow statement and has definitely never bothered to calculate a price-to-sales ratio. But he preached the Apple religion ahead of anyone else I know, and he did very well. When he talked to me about buying Apple shares @ 95 dollars, I looked at a one-year or two-year chart and felt that the price would weaken. But it never did so. I am just taking the long way to say that investing is both an art and a science. I do not believe that successful methods can be quite so reliably established as you would like them to be. Still, you can improve your odds very considerably by doing everything you are doing. I forget whether I have heretofore disclosed one of my (silly?) maxims about successful investing: "The only rule is that there are no rules." You are free to reject this notion. It does not have the B Graham imprimatur. It is a rule of my own devising. I believe the rule is useful, but it does not mean that I am throwing darts. It means that I try to borrow some technicals and some fundamentals and blend them with my own subtle theories. BTW, I do not claim to know the answer, but I wonder whether a long-term investor like Warren Buffett knows or cares about RSI. This matters much more for traders. I think most of the truly successful share-market people eschew short-term trading. continued . . .