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Apologies but I do not quite have the time to reply to you today but would you mind checking out my AIM-specific seasonal investment strategy on the General Chat topic "riddler's technicals"? Here's the link below: http://www.lse.co.uk/general-chat-discussion.asp?page=1622&TopCode=AU4KR3NE Hope you're well and I shall speak to you soon! Kind regards, Dan PS - I just checked out Chariot briefly. Well done!
You hardly need my critique, but I think that you handled the opponent in a splendid way. In my opinion, the comparison which you made to the impossibility of persuading others who hold entrenched political views (perhaps, the Conservative party vs. the Labor party in Great Britain; Republicans vs. Democrats in this country) is apt. Am not declining to discuss the merits of Oilex, but I may not have adequate time until Saturday. For the moment, sentiment -- which was strong three days ago -- has deteriorated, and I am a little worried; I bought a half-position only, but I hope not to lose. The mini version of the story is that a productive well seems almost a sure thing, and the share is trading at the midpoint of its 52-week low and high. I do not have the market cap at my fingertips, but it struck me as modest in relation to the promising story. I probably seem a tad inarticulate; long day, late hour no The NY market on Wednesday was much weaker in the a.m. than the p.m., so perhaps a better day on AIM is approaching. Wednesday on AIM was not much fun from what I could see. Pockets of selling pressure seemed numerous. BTW, if it is any consolation, few investors that I know have at present ample funds for share purchases. I am not aware of the income-tax filing deadline in your corner of the world. Here, it is April 15; so there are many who have tax liabilities and a consequent need to improve liquidity by selling shares between now and then. Prediction: in due course, you will get to know Italy better and will understand that it is a very special country. I assure you it is hard to find fault with summer days and summer evenings spent along the shore of Mare Tirreno. Fine sand, warm water, hospitable people, excellent dinners served beautifully. I could mention a half dozen nice towns to put on your next itinerary. (Rome is nice, but like any big city, not so easy in my opinion to relax there.) Wishing AIM traders a profitable Thursday. Rob
re: MOS I know exactly who you’re referring to without having to name names and his remark was entirely uncalled for, although I think he did apologise. It was not the best apology, I’ll give you that, but it’ll do. Thank you for the complement, and I agree with you – MOS has a good future and their revenue streams outside of Argentina is certainly growing. What is interesting about my opponent there is that he used to be entirely bullish on MOS. In fact it wasn’t long ago when I was the most cautious and conservative on MOS’s relatively quiet bb compared to people like him. Yet somehow the poor Argentinian situation has suddenly turned him full on bear to the extent I don’t feel like his analysis is at all fair. Yes the Argentinean situation is poor but that’s reflected in the share price and, at the end of the day, despite the economic environment MOS still grew! He seems to have lost all faith in the BoD and it’s based on very limited information. He now talks as if the January update shows how incompetent they are but I think he forgets just how fast the company grew over their 2013 financial year. If I told you there was a company currently valued a £10m, in a good financial position, with earnings before tax (2013) that are almost half the market cap – how could you honestly think that was overvalued? I like that maxim, and you’re right – I should exercise forbearance – so I’ll try my best not to respond to him. Let’s see what happens… Best regards, Dan
In response to your 1st post: Easy mistake to make so don't worry about it, mate. Ah fancy that. You may well know more Italian than me because I haven’t been learning for long and I highly doubt my Italian teacher is as good as yours! Your old Italian teacher sounded incredible. Despite an Italian back ground I’m not that big a fan of Italy. I went to Rome in November but that was my first visit to the country in 6 years. Rome is absolutely amazing and so I highly recommend it. Although I have to say Florence is lovely too! It is also where my dad’s only sibling has chosen to live to, whilst my dad decided to live here in England of course. No I haven’t heard about OEX, let alone get swept up by the story. Care to explain why you’re such a fan now? It is a pleasant surprise to hear that you’re in AFPO too. And I agree – AFPO does look undervalued. Great mind think alike, eh? In fact, now I think about it, the list of shares we’re interested in or crossed paths on is growing. It now consists of, inter alia, the following: SYQ, BMN, MONI, OMIP, AFPO, IQE, etc. If I ever have the money to spare / make mega profits somewhere that list will grow further no doubt. Honestly I’m just so short on funds right now. MOS was the last purchase I made and I’ve been trying to replenish my funds ever since because I couldn’t afford the size of the investment I made to be honest. I stretched my finances to the limit to get in before that January update, which is part the reason why I was so sore when it resulted in the worst loss I’ve experienced yet haha! Oh it’d be lovely to confer with Ben Graham but it’d be about as realistic as asking for Warren Buffett’s advice on a stock today – it just wouldn’t happen unfortunately. Kind regards, Dan
Not sure whether it will be productive for you to engage in a war of words with the chap on that certain other board. I realize that a non-response may allow him to think he is victorious; but on the other hand, I do not foresee you persuading him. The disparaging remark which was typed there by the other poster was, in my judgment, beyond the boundaries of either fair comment or fair play. Maybe I read too quickly, but I did not see an apology for that uncalled-for remark. I am acquainted with some investors who have 20+ years on you who either cannot or will not examine financial data as you are accustomed to do. Maybe the opponent at the other board is a good numbers person too, but I believe that the service being offered by MOS has a good future both in Argentina and elsewhere. As you know, the MOS revenue stream (no pun intended) is not limited to Argentina. Another reason why, in my judgment, MOS offers potential in the 30p range relates to another old maxim of the market. I think that this maxim originates with one of the Rothschilds: "Buy at the sound of the cannons, Sell at the sound of the violins." Thankfully, there are no canons being heard in Argentina these days, but the devaluation and currency controls might be said to constitute a faintly comparable condition. Maybe MOS shares could move lower than their current level, but they sure do seem to have stabilized at the current level. I will for the present exercise forbearance as to how you might conclude the dialogue with the chap. Rob
A pleasure to read your post. I reread the note from Friday. It is entirely true that you mentioned your background in insurance, not life insurance. Because you are following CSN, I had, in error, put "2 + 2 together." I took a once-a-week course in Italian a few summers ago. I had a wonderful teacher from Italy, who had been an interpreter at the United Nations in Geneva and who speaks German, Italian, French and English. I really admire her. I found some of the Italian grammar difficult, but I regret that I did not stay involved. I have on several occasions surfed over to www.ilsole24.com, the financial-markets site for Italy. A struggle, but I have enjoyed it. I have probably not had occasion to type here that I have visited Italy on several occasions. I think it is a wonderful country. In the Benjamin Graham memoir, he mentions seaside holidays at Alassio, (Regione Liguria), perhaps 60 or 70 miles to the east of Nice Aeroport. I stayed in Alassio for almost a week a few years ago. Really a terrific place; one really feels faraway: little English is spoken there. Maybe you have been there. I only recently realized that B. Graham had liked it there too. Florence might be my favorite city of all. During this past weekend, I got swept up in the OEX story as discussed at length on www.lse.co.uk. Do you know OEX? A spudded well right next to a well that had plenty of hydrocarbons but which turned out badly for other reasons. There seem to be many believers that nothing bad will happen this time. Independent of you, I found my way to AFPO. For one who generally avoids resources, I like OEX and AFPO. Away from resources, there was interesting news at 7 o'clock on Monday re a penny share called Crimson Tide, TIDE. I see much promise, but TIDE spiked on the news, so I would not buy at the moment. Will watch. The CEO, Mr Barrie Whipp, is the founder and holds many shares. I forget the exact percentage. An asset manager in Zurich named IS Partners holds 19%. Did you notice the shrewd poster at SYQ whom I had mentioned last week in the context of FOX? I am not sure how long he has been interested in SYQ. [For that matter, I am not sure how long you have been following AFPO!] I suppose the virtue of the AFPO story is that the company has a market cap ca. 7 million GBP after it invested, within the past 12-18 months, 12 or 13 million GBP for its license to mine potash. Surely investors appreciate the Africa risk, but AFPO still looks undervalued. It would be nice if either you or I could confer for an hour with B. Graham to ask whether he would see the margin of safety that you and I think is present in the shares of AFPO. Alas, not possible in the 21st century. Good luck on Tuesday to you and to all who may read this message. Rob
Ah I’m not in life insurance. I know I made it sound like I was in my last post but I was actually just saying that I’m in the insurance industry. If I were to be more specific though I’m in non-life, commercial, London market insurance (which includes all sorts of insurance including terrorism, kidnap & ransom, space, cyber, specie, etc) working as a broker at present. In fact, seeing as you’re a lawyer, you might well be interested to hear that my dad is a qualified solicitor and barrister yet he doesn’t practice as either since he’s now an underwriter for After the Event insurance, an unusual type of insurance you’d probably be talented at yourself. You’re right in saying that actuaries are very well paid but I’m not trying to become one. I’m numerical but I’m not at all qualified to even be considered to become an actuary. Not like I mind to be honest because I wouldn’t enjoy being an actuary and there’s more to life than money. I’m not entirely sure what my aim is but the thought of becoming an underwriter is very tempting, reinsurance looks fascinating, and working at Lloyd’s of London is the dream so I’ll try my best to go in that direction. Currently the only time I venture into Lloyd’s is for my weekly Italian lessons but give it time… Yeah I’ve helped convince you to buy into both SYQ and BMN lately, haven’t I, and you’ve made a profit in both so I think you owe me one, my friend! Joking aside it’d be lovely to meet up with you if you come to England sometime so please let me know if you visit. I had a lovely weekend thanks. I was visiting family in Manchester and we all had a lovely time. My grandfather is a fan of the casino so I went with him on Saturday to try my luck. Whilst he made a £45 profit that night, I lost £20 very fast. I was at the 50p roulette table, spent £20 in exchange for 40 chips, did all I could to improve my chance of winning something, but somehow did not win a thing. The chances of not winning anything were so incredibly slim that I realised I had no luck whatsoever. So I kept the remaining £10 firmly in my pocket and retired for the night, concluding that I’d much rather do my gambling on the stock market!! Hope you had a good weekend yourself. Kind regards, Dan
A very busy day for me, so I started early. Not yet 8:00 here, but must get moving. I am happy to learn that you are in life insurance. Not polite to ask many questions here, but maybe you are aiming to be an actuary. That line of work would suit a gentleman who possesses the grasp of figures that you possess. I have always understood that actuaries are very well compensated, and in my opinion, that is your due. I will click back and make sure not to miss a prior post of yours at BMN bb. I know we are nearing 6p there, and I am delighted. I may have found SYQ via my approach of turning over many rocks, but BMN for sure is in my portfolio because you helped me. If I get to England again before too long, I need to find some way to show appreciation. I think that you understand that I am generally not a mining investor, so even though BMN was getting a lot of attention on www.lse.co.uk, I was directing my attention elsewhere. It is surely true that the Warren Buffett fortune has much to do with insurance, and for the reason that you mentioned. Benjamin Graham was an early investor in "GEICO" (Government Employees Insurance Company), and Berkshire Hathaway now owns it outright. I am a GEICO insured, but only for my car. Berkshire is now a very big force in catastrophe reinsurance too, which also has inherently long time-frames until pay-outs. Not funny at all that you have an eye on IQE. Great minds think alike. It may be a low-volatility share, but I foresee improvements there. This morning, I found something else that interests me greatly. TRAP. An offshore oil play, which looks nicely undervalued. An investor with a Scandinavian name which I may spell with an error, Mr Gyllenhammar, just bought 29 million shares. For the half year, I just did my long division, and I see tangible book value of 27.535 million GBP and share count a little over 227 million shares, so that looks to me like 12p. I have to recheck, but I am sure I found positive cash flow for the half year. I should recheck all my figures, but I might enter an order before long. In a perfect world, you could click away from your life insurance endeavors and verify that which I am saying. Shares may be available today a little under 10p. Enjoy the weekend. Investing can consume one's free time, but there is much more to life, as you know. Rob
3rd paragraph of part 1: "That’s standard and it is possible..." should read "That's standard and that is why it is possible..."
Lastly have you checked out El1te’s most recent article on Clean Air Power? He rates it a buy and I’m surprised he has to a certain extent because usually he does oodles of research and the rating is heavily influenced by the fundamentals. Yet here he has said the fundamentals don’t look great because CAP is loss making etc but it has such potential that he rates it a buy, saying just one RNS could catapult it to a much higher valuation. As usual it is well worth a read and I’m very interested to hear your thoughts. If I don’t speak to you again today – have a good weekend! Kind regards, Dan
Re: Chesnera’s name - I wondered where it originated myself because it seems like a very odd name for a life insurer in my opinion. The use of ‘m’ instead of ‘million’ doesn’t put me off at all. It’s when companies purely use EBITDA in their results that I don’t like because it excludes so much I think they’re trying to hide something. If they use adjusted-EBITDA (something they define themselves) that’s even worse in my eyes, and never fails to put me off. I got the impression Chesnera is primarily a life insurer but, like all insurers, their income comes not just from the underwriting operation but also their investments. That’s standard and it is possible for insurers’ claims + operating expenses can exceed the premiums they charge in one particular underwriting year and yet they’ll still be in profit – it is because their investments more than make up for the underwriting loss. And, due to the gap in time between insurers receiving premium and paying claims, it makes sense for them to invest in a very conservative way (see Warren Buffett’s latest letter explaining this better than I am). Re: embedded value, I know a fair bit about insurance (because I’m in the industry myself) but I’m totally unfamiliar with the term. I’ll have to look at that too. Haha I like that saying, and yes I like the directorate to eat their own cooking too so that is a negative to be honest. CSN clearly requires further study from me too because some of their key RNSs are complicated to understand. I’ll try and study it when I can. I’m at work all day, I am revising for upcoming exams, and I’m busy this weekend visiting family in Manchester but I’ll try my best. I saw that you did but only by clicking on your name and reading through your posts (across all bbs). I actually did reply to that so if you were to do the same and click on your post to me you’ll find it. I never realised Ben Graham was born in England so thanks for that information, and I’ll happily join you in a toast to potentially the best investors of all time. SYQ is doing very well indeed with a new high today, and many more to come! You’re right to say it has an excellent niche and you’re right to hold. I’ve done the research there and it’s going to pay off spectacularly I feel :D It is funny you mention IQE because I’ve been looking at that recently. I really like the look of it and that is even before entertaining the idea of Intel buying them up! The one downside I see is that the stock seems to be stuck in sub 25p territory – there’s no momentum. ...
Me again. SYQ closed strong today, 06 March 2014. I feel that the company has an excellent niche. I am happy, and I am going to hold. I believe that, when you look at FOX, you will note the shrewd observations of the gentleman whom I mentioned a couple of days ago. He is not, in my opinion, a ramper. (BTW, that is a word not used here. I forget the slang they use here.) I think the gentleman has good instincts. Maybe I am biased in his favor because he likes SNTY and a couple of other nicely performing shares that I like too. I never intended to copy him, but he seems to be drawn to companies that I like too. He thinks SNTY has a long way to go. One company that you might like to consider in the semiconductor or wafer business is IQE. They bought a Nasdaq-traded company about 1-2 year ago called Kopin. I was rather confident that IQE was going to bottom at 20p, and it seems to have bottomed at 20.25p. The CEO (or chairman) Andrew _____, has a large position. I think I noticed he added to his position within the past year. Someone posted that IQE would be a terrific acquisition for Intel, which has been late to the mobile-computing party. It may be a low-priced share, but they seem to be quite an established group. I realize that both the upside potential and downside risk are higher with shares priced below 1 GBP. I think that a brainy person like you is able for the most part to avoid the serious problems and wait for the lower-priced shares to rise. I ask myself with regard to a company like CSN, how much profit can one really hope to make? I like to be diversified, and I sense that, unless one invests heavily in a name like that, the profit potential may not be adequate. Still, it does pay a meaningful dividend, and that is a strong point. I should have a look at my North American shares while the market here has three hours to go. One thing I remind myself all the time -- the market does not allow me to be on "Cruise Control." I am not sure that this term is widely used for the cars in England, hopefully you know what I mean. Rob229
After reading your post, I took a little look at Chesnera. Do you have an idea what the name means or where it originates? Little things like that are of interest to me. I was having a little trouble getting everything about CSN in my head. Sometimes, it bothers me when a quoted company uses in its financial reports the letter "m" to mean million. When we learned our our Roman numerals as kids, we learned that M = 1000. Anyway, I need to make sure I understand how much money Chesnera has under management. Managing pensions is a profitable business. If the assets are well managed, assets will remain with the co. for a long time. I see that the subsidiary in Sweden is in the pension business; maybe life insurance too. Not sure yet. I think that, in this country, asset managers routinely trade in the stock market for ca. 1.5% of assets under management. A PE in the high teens is not considered very high because the stream of profits and growth are predictable. As for the life-insurance metric of "embedded value" as discussed in the interim report of CSN, I have to re-learn the meaning. It is something different from tangible book value, but I confess to being unsure of its precise meaning. Maybe you have studied this concept. I see that the directorate at CSN have rather small positions. That is a mildly disconcerting feature. I have a funny saying. I like to be invested along with a directorate who "eat their own cooking." So anyway, CSN requires further study. Maybe I will have time this evening. I wrote you a little note on the BMN bb. Maybe you missed it because, within an hour or two, the top page goes away there. My point is that I see that you are a student of Benjamin Graham. I wished to make sure you know that, although he made his fortune in this country, he was, on 9 May 1894, born in England. In cyberspace, we should, 64 days from now, have a collective toast to a very distinguished dual citizen. FOX feels good to me. I do prefer lower priced shares. Rob
Good day Rob, Thank you. I did notice that SYQ and BMN outperformed on Monday so thank you. SYQ has gone very quiet now though which, on the one hand, is good news because the RSI was very high yet – on the other – I wonder if the share price will ease off further. I’ll have to wait and see and, either way, I won’t be selling. How you’ve expressed how poor conclusions can arrive from share evaluation incredibly well there. I love the use of the word ‘predilections’ in particular because I literally never hear it. Looking into shares is very time-consuming because there’s so many opportunities out there (number of shares), and so much you have to do to get even a basic understanding of your typical individual stock. And it is all too easy to make mistakes. My latest stock I’m very excited about is CSN (Chesnera) and I think you’ll love it because it is the sort of stock under a rock you like mate. I’ll explain briefly: Based on the 2012 FY results the fundamentals don’t look great. But then if you dig a little deeper and look at the 2013 HY and Q3 results you’ll realise the 2013 FY results will be immensely better. 2013 has been a turnaround year for CSN and I don’t think the market has cottoned on yet which is why it is trading at a bargain price right now. Admittedly I haven’t spent long looking at CSN so there might be something I’ve missed but, at present, I’ve got a conservative target of 600p for the company (which is currently trading at 350p). Re: MOS – it’s great that UBS are buying in. Although I do wonder whether they’re going to day trade it based on the fact Commerzbank were buying BMN shortly after the 10p to 3-4p drop and everyone get incredibly excited. Only to then realise the Germans then sold for a quick profit. Thanks for letting me know though. My fingers are crossed. FOX sounds interesting. I shall look into it when I get the chance because your summary has certainly piqued my interest. All the best to you. Kind regards, Dan
What a quiet thread ! Dipped my toe in recently and will continue to had on any dips,,,,,no advice intended and DYOR http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?username=&ac=&csi=7736284
Good evening Dan or (by the time I finish this disquisition) it might be more correct to say good morning. Today was the kind of day in the markets that is not so easy to take. Lots of weakness on account of the events which, thankfully, are well to the east. I am sure that political chat is discouraged here, but there is something about the president of russia that does not suit me. The good news is that various shares strengthened in the afternoon. Praise is due you not just because SYQ and BMN were outperformers today. BMN did indeed tiptoe above 6p for a little while. Re SYQ, I haven't the closing quote at my fingertips, but I think there are three integers to the left of the decimal point. Your willingness to acknowledge that ACD might not be a buy speaks volumes about the scholar that you are. I think that we agree that evaluation of shares is a complicated, time-consuming business. Upon finding a few attractive characteristics about a given share, the predilections which an investor carries with him sometimes distort the process. It takes a big person to say, maybe I was wrong. I make mistakes, and I expect that I will continue to make mistakes. I readily admit that I need all the help I can get. Did you see the filing at about 14:40 today by UBS? The filing states that, on 27.02, UBS added a couple of hundred thousand shares of MOS. I forget the exact number, but I suspect that that is why the share price strengthened near the close. UBS is now holding over 7% of the shares. Funny that Chaarat did not rise today even though gold shares were generally strong. The individual (Dibs61) who likes Charaat likes Fox Marble, symbol FOX. I have been watching this one for a few months. It seems as though it is beginning to move. FOX controls some marble quarries in Kosovo. I understand that it is classified by the stock exchange as a mining company, yet I understand the point made by Dibs61 that it has neither the exploration risk nor the risk which is inherent in a traded commodity like metals or soft commodities. I should not just repeat what others say, but it is said on the FOX bb that the net present value of the assets is (I forget the exact #) either 3 or 4 times the 24 mil. GBP market cap. My sense is that, in time, the market will realize that there is not so much country risk to quarries in Kosovo. The FOX board includes some properly educated English people who hold large stakes. I think the free float is ca. 40%. Perhaps when the market starts to appreciate that the risks are not so great, the shares will appreciate too. You may wish to stay away because a marble quarry seems prosaic and because production is in a beginning phase. I wish to all stronger trading on Tuesday. Rob229
No I don’t know Dibs61 and, in all honesty, I’ve never had any interest in the gold sector. Having said that the recent trouble re: Ukraine, bodes well for the sector as a whole so don’t listen to me. I just avoid sectors that are too risky in my eyes with the one exception you know about (BMN). Re: MLC – it looks like I need to do more research because analysts rate it as a hold, which makes me wonder whether the really good results weren’t the result of more to come but actually a one-off occurrence. Yeah I know what you mean – it’s a big part the reason why I’ve never bothered with shares on the main market myself. But, at the same time, my risk aversion has made me start looking at small to mid cap companies (that are a bit above your usual AIM share). Re: ACD – thank you for looking into this so thoroughly (more thoroughly than me) and sharing your views. The idea of paying two layers of management fees really puts me off, and you’re right about it trading close to its NAV. There’s certainly better opportunities out there, I just think I fell for the allure of an under the radar stock in the process of a share buy back but nevermind. Hope you had a great weekend. Kind regards, Dan
MM's quick to show a sell. My 10.33am buy yet to show on Aim or Plus.
I decided to take a little time to look before turning out the lights. Almost midnight here. ACD is not an operating company. I forget whether it is classified in London as an investment trust. In NY, it would be classified as a closed-end fund. In any event, it does not feel like a share for me. In the most respectful way, I will tell you why. If you think I am wrong, I am happy to read your further thoughts. In brief, the discount from n.a.v. is about 3 or 4%. I think the half-year report states that the n.a.v. is 107p. The commitment of management to a pay-out to shareholders of 3.75% p.a. does not seem so attractive for a portfolio of distressed securities. (On the other hand, maybe the distressed securities will rise in price; by definition, some distressed fixed-income securities may be in default. So yes, I acknowledge the potential for gain if the distressed securities stop being distressed!) When one purchases ACD shares, one is effectively bearing the cost of at least two (and in some cases three) layers of management fees. I say this because a review of the half-year report tells me that the investments that ACD holds are generally in (a) hedge funds and (b) "funds of funds." So the individual holder of ACD shares is exposed to multiple fees. I am not criticizing the people who run hedge funds, but I think it is widely understood that the people who engage in that line of work are very handsomely paid. In effect, they are probably being compensated with at least two hundred basis points out of the gross interest earned by the portfolio. I question whether there is significant upside for the public shareholder of ACD. I suppose the n.a.v. could rise some more, but on the other hand, distressed securities are subject to reorganization risk. I have some experience analyzing fixed-income securities. A gentleman who has your prodigious talent for finding quality shares that are ready to rise could quickly adapt to the analysis of fixed-income securities yielding more than 3.75%. For beginners, I look at the annual interest expense for the past three years, and I look at the cash flow from operations in each of those years. I look for a margin of safety. (I note that you are very familiar with this important concept.) Depending on the cyclicality or non-cyclicality of the business, I find that I am comfortable with a ratio of 3 to 1 or perhaps 2 to 1. This is not the entire analysis, but it is a good part of it. If you think I am missing something, please challenge me. Rob
Hi Dan, Your 27.02.2014 post on this quiet board is welcome. The day was very busy. I have not yet had a chance to evaluate ACD, but the information that you cite regarding ACD deserves close attention. I may not have a chance to study it 'til the weekend, but I will study it. Thank you for bringing it to my attention. I wonder whether you have had occasion to encounter a poster on www.lse.co.uk whose pen name is Dibs61. I find mining shares harder to evaluate than shares in some other sectors. And the vagaries of commodity price trends are, for me, impossible to master. In any event, Dibs61 seems confident about Charaat Gold. I forget whether the symbol is CHG or CGH (probably CGH, it looks more correct). Either way, it is a share that may be worth studying. I feel as though Dibs51 has made a study of Chaarat Gold rather as you have done with regard to BMN. I mentioned to CP22 within the past day or so that I generally disfavor companies in the gambling sector. I had bad timing in BPTY perhaps two years ago. I probably would stay away from Webis even if it looked more reasonably priced. Am not against MLC. I assume it is Millennium & Copthorne, which is known here too. I am not sure it has the upside potential that I usually try to find, but I will give it a look. Rather an institutional-type share, I think. I suppose it is not easy for me to cite a unifying characteristic to the shares that I favor, but I know them when I see them. Sometimes I think that, by turning over a sufficient number of rocks, I may sense, a bit ahead of the crowd, a share that is about to trade higher on an improving story. I know I like rising revenues and directorate purchases, and I am much intrigued when I find positive cash flow from operations even when the net income figure has not yet turned positive. I have a concern that the rising market in which investors find themselves may reverse before long. I hope that, in the event that there is a change in trend, none of the smart investors here will be caught. Rob229
Sorry for not posting here in ages! CP22, Happy birthday for the other day! I hope you had a good ‘un! By the way it looks like I’ve finally found someone on lse who is younger than me – I’m turning 23 in August so I’m a tad older than you! I have to say that I am beginning to see why you love OMIP so much. I’ll let you know when/if I buy in but, rest assured, it continues to be on my watchlist and has been for months (as you know). Re: WEBIS – I did check it out but really didn’t like its profit margins where it made 0.35 on revenues of 168.7m. For that reason I’m unlikely to invest tbh, unless I’m missing something crucial of course. Re: CRV – I’m the same as you. I looked at it but found it tough to understand. It has released news today which shows it is trading below its NAV but, then again, a lot of AIM shares do and it doesn’t mean it’ll rise like you think it should. Rob, re: ABDP – I actually quite like the look of this one you’ve found. It has a nice little niche, it has good finances (net assets of 8.2m and cash > liabilities), as well as a large £1.7m contract not included in their last set of results. On the other hand its EV/EBIT is 13.6 at present and, unless it grows very very fast, that is a bit demanding so I’m unlikely to invest. I’ve spotted a couple of shares that you might like to look at. With no funds spare I’m in neither of course but I certainly am tempted. The first is MLC (566p). It is a FTSE 250 share that is in the Hotel sector. It announced its results recently and the growth there is absolutely amazing! It has a low PE ratio, low EV/EBIT ratio, high growth (as I said), and EPS jumped from 42p to 70.5p. Previously it was trading at roughly 13 to 14 x EPS so it is now trading at roughly 8 x EPS. Providing it is valued at 13 – 14 x EPS again though it should reach 920p at the very least - 60% above what it is now! If I had money I’d buy into it right now. The second is ACD. By common standards the fundamentals look good (low pe ratio, lowish ev/ebit ratio, great finances (£5m cash in 2012 year, no debt), and an increasing dividend. ALSO – and this is unusual – it is in the process of buying back 20% of its shares. It started this process July 2013 and shall complete it June 2014, but it suggests the fundamentals shall grow stronger in the coming months because of it. Having said all that, like CRV, it’s an enigma to me because its pre tax profits are higher than its revenue for instance. But, because it is like CRV, you may like it Rob haha! I’d be interested to know what you both think. Wishing good luck and good health to the both of you. Dan
Good day on Sunday to CP22, Before I write about RUR, I say -- I hope that yesterday was a real celebration. Back to business! RUR is a power hydroelectric power co. that owns power plants mainly in Latin America. You probably know about the major scuffle in which it finds itself vis-a-vis the Bolivian state. If the arbitration award issued in The Hague is paid by the Bolivian state, then RUR shares are sure to rise. It is clear that the market lacks confidence that the arbitration award will be paid. People may be pleased that (a) some officers of RUR have added to their positions and that (b) Miton Group appears to have a meaningful position in in RUR. Still, I am risk-averse where governments are adverse parties. Not sure whether they say in England "You can't fight city hall." That has for a very long time been a popular saying here. I will probably stay far away from RUR. On the other hand, I wonder whether the story has intrigued you. Plainly, the risks are high but so are the potential rewards. Another saying which is occasionally heard here [and which was included in a post on the RUR bb] follows: "It's a long way to Tipperary." Rob229
Happy Birthday to CP22. My very best to you. I knew that "22" is the day, but I did not know that "2" is the month. Before many holidays were switched to the nearest Monday here, 22 February used to be celebrated as the birthday of George Washington. I am sure you know that he was the first president of the U.S. I have not looked for a long time, but I am 99% sure that he was born of English parents. I think he was born in 1732. Thanks to you, I remember now why I may stay away from Webis. I tried to make money with BPTY a year or two ago. I have had other difficulties with the gambling sector. Crowded, but fashionable are correct descriptors for the sector. I am a live-and-let-live person, but I am somewhat contemptuous of gambling. I realize that the house always wins, so it should be a good place to invest. Somehow, I have had multiple difficulties there. It is as though the market gods seem to know that I am somewhat opposed to gambling. I also disapprove of lottery tickets. I feel that they seduce poor people into sacrificing their hard-earned money. On the other hand, I have a funny saying about investing in shares. I call it "gambling while wearing a necktie." I think of the many shares that I have purchased while seated in my office either chatting with a broker or staring at the computer. BTW, I am a semi-retired lawyer, so I do not spend much time in offices these days. Regards . . . and again, Happy Birthday. Rob229
Will look over and digest your previous post, but probanly not today as 22nd today is my birthday, hence, will be out over weekend celebrating :-) Will catch up soon. Re: WEB, last RNSn ot as positive as previous 2, in a crowded but fashionable sector, onlne gaming etc. Enjoy your weekend
Our CRV just can't seem to find favor with investors, but I think its day will arrive before long. I am hoping that the week treated you well. My portfolio ended the week with some blue and some red. Nothing new about that! Are you involved in WEB? I am not so familiar with the co. If so, I wonder whether you think it is attractively priced here. Maybe you would take a little time to say why. On the recommendation of Mr Libero, I bought a little BMN a few days ago. It is up a little. It has certainly not risen much, so if you like the story, it may still be attractive. I generally stay away from mining companies, but I took a chance. Another mining story that interests me [and which seems to be popular at www.lse.so.uk] is SOLG, but it rose before I could enter an order. I think I have to let it go. The market cap is over 50 million GBP, and that seems to me to be very high for a mining story without revenues. The prospects may be very good, but the market seems to have priced it accordingly. On my own, I am looking for a wise investor like you to express views about a recently floated share, CFHL. It may look expensive. The initial price ~ 5 weeks ago was 60p. Now about 15% higher. This mission of this company is to compete with BT by offering the better kind of broadband fibre in UK cities other than London, which already has (I believe) the most advanced fibre for internet connections. I wonder whether you have any familiarity with CFHL. Maybe not fair of me to make this a long message. Still, I would welcome any thoughts that you are of mind to post. I appreciate that you may wish to respond to the topics mentioned by me or mention others that are of interest to you today. Thank you for your consideration. I see no need to worry about the criticisms of others. This is likely to remain a quiet board. Regards, Rob229