GreenRoc Accelerates their World Class Project to Production as Early as 2028. Watch the full video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
A lot of nonsense on this board. There is obviously significant interest here, with some posting naively thinking their words can influence the ODX sp.
Does the market exist for the following proposal - if a test was available that you could take at home, to find out if you’ve had the virus, would you buy this test? ODX is involved in the development of such a test. If the test is good then literally millions of people will want such a test.
PDSMPiper, new to this but wouldn't it have been better to have AVCT, ODX and another (not got any in NCYT missed out) to spread the risk. If any 3 to 5 times their value then great? More than 1 even better.
Not my strategy mate. I don’t buy toppy MCaps with very little justification by revenue. IMO there will be a massive sell off in both AVCT and NCYT soon. There’s too much hot speculative money in there just waiting for the last bits of news before they dump them. Massive Mcaps, 163Mill and 288Mill.
Some loons are saying AVCT is going to 10bag on news. Ha. That will be a £1.63Bill Mcap. They’ll be lucky to get another bag out of it but the affirmer tech has even been proven to work on Cytivas strip yet so it could even go back to pennies. It’s a poor risk reward. I don’t risk losing all my capital in pursuit of a possible bagger. Not for me. I’ll play the long game and wait for ODX to steadily reach a £250 mill Mcap on news and revenue. Much safer. Much more sustainable. The stocks in my isa as a long term hold. Sell offs and retraces coming in the others. All too toppy.
Hi Guys I have shares here and AVCT. AVCTs primary value is oncology not Covid. Covid will be extra icing on the cake for AVCT. Please don't deramp a share unless you know a little more about it. I hope that both shares do well- vested interest of course
PDSMPiper, thanks for the advice mate.
It isn’t advice. It’s just my opinion. Don’t take advice from anybody else.
If AVCTs primary business is oncology then they weren’t doing much of it. Their last reported revenue was only £4Million. That only supports an Mcap of £20Mill Max. AVCT Mcap is now £160Mill. The 8X bagger rise has happened because of Covid speculation. The affirmer technology is not proven to work on Cytivas test strip yet. That’s why I’m not buying it.
1.) The Mcap is massively toppy and based on speculative hot money.
2.) The Covid partnership that caused the astronomical rise is not yet proven to work.
I think it’s a very high risk play here but good luck with it and DYOR.
I keep reading a lot in these health care stocks about their Market capitalisation being a multiple of revenue. I'm used to value's being worked out on a multiple of earnings. This makes much more sense to me on the basis of the old adage Revenue's vanity. profit's sanity. It's the profit that can be distributed back to shareholders as dividends that justify them lending the company money. Revenue on it's own is a very wishful way of valuing a company. Is there a good reason why health care stocks are valued like this?
Good question. I would say the urgency to find a way out of this global pandemic (hopefully once in a lifetime) deserves a significant premium on what will be very large revenues. Hence the Market Capitals are justified.
Market cap is a pure multiplier of price times number of shares in issue. Share price is normally related to earnings as price earnings ratio. Healthcare often has a higher P/E ratio because of the possibility of stability and future growth, but tech is the same.
Comparing the commercial potential, and therefore market caps of ODX to NCYT is literally apples vs pears.
My view as as follows; Mologic are the test provider, own the IP and therefore control the economics of production and set the price per test. They will receive the cash from the buyer (e.g the government) say it sells for £5 per test for arguments sake. They will pay ODX a % per test produced, let’s be generous and assume this is 20%. So ODX earn £1 per test on a gross basis.
However, NCYT own their test IP and so dictate the economics of production & set the sales price. They will pay their manufacturers (Cytiva / Yourgene etc) a % of the selling price per test, and retain the margin as their gross profit. If NCYT sells a test for £5 and pays a 20% cut, Yourgene get £1 and NCYT £4.
So based on the above example, ODX would need to sell a minimum of 4 x the number of tests to make the same revenue as NCYT. In all likelihood this multiple will be higher as ODX will have manufacturing overheads to cover & the NCYT sales price is more than £5.
NCYT had sold £17.9m of tests to the end of March, prior to scaling up to 4m (and soon to be 8m) tests per month. If ODX make £1 per test and sell 46k tests per day to Mologic, it will take them 389 days to reach £17.9m of revenue.
If NCYT successfully scale up to 8m tests per month and sell them at a notional £5 per test (by all accounts it’s closer to £10) that is £40m revenue per month for NCYT, it would take ODX 869 days to reach this amount of revenue, so over 2 years.
So no PDMSPiper NCYT is not overvalued, it is in fact grossly undervalued in comparison to ODX based on the above conservative calculations.
Interested to read a constructive response as to what the flaws in this analysis are, as to me it seems clear cut from a financial perspective. If you could invest directly in Mologic then it would be a slightly different story.
Similarly with the rapid test consortium, ODX are the manufacturer of the test, not the developer, so will only receive a small portion of any sales revenue. All IMO of course, and please do you own research.
You've guessed all the numbers ... so of course your version of them supports your preference. Which is fine. Stick with ncyt if you want to.
Thanks Kevin0541. So you seem to agree that the Mcap is more related to earnings than revenue? The multiple to be applied to earnings changes by sector, but basing a mcap on anything to do with revenue is extremely speculative. So should people be very wary when they see someone calculate an Mcap based on a multiple of revenue on these BB's?
Shearclass, what are you doing on the odx bb promoting the merits of a different company?
You evidently haven't done your research have you MORON this little bit of business with Mologic is worth anything between 15 to 30 million quid to ODX. So shut your pie whole. Thats coming from someone who was buying NCYT at 20p
Shearclass ncyt is PCR, omega is antibody testing. They have completely different usages
The mologic deal is a bonus compared to the consortium development of a POC device
Youu are also trying to compare apples and pears