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a rate rise without exceptional liquidity like helicopter money may be trigger for steep decline (first in financial markets..and then the real world) ...the fed has boxed itself into one H*ll of a corner by being so slow to price capital and think outside of groupthink ..we need inflation..even significant inflation ..and neg interest rates are inappropriate cos they lock in deflation and destroy capitalism (you can make money by borrowing..just how crazy wd that be)
clearly we're at start? of a general market wobble - volatility can't stay low for ever and it's that time of year...if there's a rate rise issue, then that's pro-growth and i expect oil price to do fine and OCN to be underpinned. OCN is a 'real-asset' play with a very good yield and still 30% odd below my cautious NAV. you might be right and the stock fall back 5-10% given how illiquid it is and how overdue we are for a general market correction. But i'm not a trader and this company still works for me until we're up around 1250-1300p.all best.
finally stalling? s&p, usd and wilson sp all a little precarious imv
usd weakening suggests scepticism with fed?? fed up lol
free carry of 700 now.. ...wilson sp still not that strong and s&p distinctly toppy imv
Good of you to notice, Jolly. Just you and me on here anyway...Hope you're making money. it's one of those stocks that i just happen to know very well. On the operational side, the company invested very heavily a few years back and as that spending tails-off we should see a dramatic expansion of margins in the next year or so. On that basis, it should get back to previous highs before we need to start worrying about valuation. It is what it is, so the risks are always oil price / EM / Brazil. But Shell and others are so committed to Santos and deep-water Brazil (via BG acquisition, etc.) that Wilson Sons has far higher visibility and security than almost any other EM/commodity-exposed service company I can think of....all best.
cadbury
yea, US$ is useful - together with weak Real/£. a nice combo. a lot of the commodity stocks have been great performers and yet remain loathed by institutional investors...that means they'll continue to run. even seaborne coal prices are on the way up. this stock will sit there until there's a scrabble to catch-up performance and suddenly a number of institutional investors will see it on their screens and want the stock; it will be through 10.00 in a heart-beat. given that it has traded beautifully thru the brexit 'crisis', i see no reason to sell. wait for the 'pop'...it will be worth it. take a look at historical charts to see how quickly it moves when there's a decent bid.
wilson and son not shooting the lights out...but usd pf probably doing ok??
heading toward 4....so value of 40m+ shares @30-35brl/share is tasty ...and the pf is nearly £200m at USD/£ of 1.2 (which we may head right thro towards parity lol) ...well done, Call me Dave...great process...it was always going to be all about the manner and tone of disengaging with our friends in the euro(group)..and what you dreamt up in yr etonian {] has left effectively farage in charge in parliament(s), setting an appalling tone... ...and we really have no idea what happens next...do you or yr chums???.. ...Go on be transparent....in the early hours, accept you messed the uk for yr convenience. ...not a great way forward ..null point...next
looks decent sanctuary
There's a nice chart on daily macro blog 'The Daily Shot' (well worth subscribing to if macro data is your thing). It shows sugar prices squeezing higher - due to heavy port congestion in Brazil....This bodes well for Wilson Sons port services activity this quarter. In addition, there was a massive rally in the US oil & gas equipment and service sector on Monday, in part due to an upgrade of a key stock, Weatherford, by Barclays. A rally in this sector due to order momentum bodes very well for Brazilian off-shore activity and OCN is exposed to that too, of course. OCN remains a fantastic risk-reward stock at these levels in my view.
Only 50% out :-(
Rising every day. Events have indeed transformed the outlook for OCN (e.g. Brazil corruption busting, possible impeachment of president, soaring stockmarket, increase in Real against Dollar, recovery in commodities). What a difference three months makes. Chart now (amazingly) points to 1200 by end May xd !
Wilson Sons in Brazil (WSON33) has followed the rest of the Brazilian market higher and is now up 12% in the last month vs the Brazil market up over 20%. How long before OCN, which owns a majority stake in Wilson Sons, starts to follows both these lead indicators? OCN is geared to Brazil and offshore oil and gas, but you get paid a 5.5% divi yield, too. This high quality stock has it all for me and deserves attention.
Some evidence in support of buy case for OCN LN below: 1. Quote from Russell Napier (a great bear market strategist), lifted from the FT. Ok, it reads looks like a bear argument until you look at my points 2 and 3.: “Never buy an emerging market equity when it’s cheap. Only buy an emerging market equity when the currency is cheap,” he said. "The problem is that while currencies for Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and other developing nations have been losing value against the dollar for years, exports have not yet risen to the point where these countries don’t require regular inflows of foreign money. To be cheap the currencies must fall further, which risks problems for countries, and companies, which have borrowed in dollars or euros. Currency crises and sovereign defaults remain a real possibility," said Mr Napier. 2. Wilson Sons Limited latest quarterly volume data from Brazilian ports. Take a look at the Import figure (-11% - a collapse) but off-set by +ve export figures to give overall +ve grand total quarter on quarter and year on year change. Q: Is this an indication that Brazil is at or near the point where it does not 'require regular inflows of foreign money' - a constraint referred to by Napier above?? 3. Read the small section from last week’s interim statement from BG on volume growth from deep water Brazil (and Australia). BG Statement 20/1/16. "Full year E&P production volumes are expected to average 704 kboed in 2015, around 16% higher than 2014 reflecting growth primarily in Australia, Brazil and Norway. Volumes in Australia more than doubled to 88 kboed and in Brazil, almost doubled to 146 kboed. In Norway, Knarr came onstream in March and has produced an average of 12 kboed during 2015. This growth was partially offset by the expected decline in Egypt, down 18 kboed to 44 kboed, combined with lower volumes in Trinidad & Tobago, down 13 kboed to 52 kboed. The LNG Shipping & Marketing segment delivered 282 cargoes (17.9 million tonnes) in 2015, 104 more cargoes than in 2014 (6.9 million additional tonnes). Increased supply was driven by 77 cargoes from QCLNG and 31 additional spot cargoes. Of the 282 cargoes (2014 178), 209 were supplied to Asian markets (2014 121). BG Group delivered its first ever cargoes to Egypt, Pakistan and Jordan during the year."
40-50%... ..so watching this decline slowly towards £5
makes no sense...fees on fees...shareholders here cd make their own decisions ...better to sell all their investments and return some of that capital
Brl has depreciated by 40% since this time last year, and some forecasts expect it to go further down in 2016. In light of this, satisfactory trading in Brazil is nullified by currency devaluation. Anyone any view on what effect this will have on profits/divi for year ending dec 31 2015 ? Wondering whether this should be viewed as an investment portfolio with shipping company thrown in for free rather than the other way round.
my first post had missed out "not" ...no source; just a skim through their report
Interesting to see you reply, i didn't know if you would. You seem to have good sources for your information. Whats the 'not missing...'
not enough of a discount
difficult to see why they run these two "businesses"...the fund of funds is particularly odd ...it trades on a discount to nav but enough of a discount to get me excited ...clearly brazil is in a mess..and you could punt on the brazilian stock market atm rel cheaply (though I am waiting for it to drop another 40-50%)
Ah, Mr Bond... Cadbury bought a wee bit more last week and is now fully invested - for better, for worse. Bon Chance!
Just bought in here. Question is Is wilko still dripping and is cadbury still in or have the ships sailed and the boats left port?