Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I live day to day and see waking up healthy the next morning as a bonus,
Nothing is a given, enjoy your hobby ;0)
The Russians are playing a dangerous game of chess with everyone else ...and it is anyone´s guess how long the game will go on ....Putin loves these games ..he likes the challenge of thinking he can out smart everyone else .... he wont concede anything unless he gets something in return.....unless he is pushed deep into a corner IMO
I just take things week by week...and make a judgment for the month ....move on from there....I cant predict what may or may happen by the end of the year ....
The markets firstly wanted to know the FED intention...and that is basically known for June and July ( hence market uptick) ..whether there is a FED pause is the next discussion point
Russian default is all technical and a legal battlefield ....but a push all the same to get their credit rating down and any costs of borrowing on the money markets ..up ( via the Chinese )
Valueplay - I disagree with your assumption on rates - I think rates and inflation will peak at the end of the year - the whole world is chasing growth atm, that is the only way forward so rates will be held down as much as possible to facilitate this - dow down over 10pct this year and nasdaq down over 25pct year to date - any positive news on inflation will push these higher as will any positive news on Ukraine - Russia will soon be at the point of defaulting so I disagree that this war will go on for another year - as economic reality hits home in Russia things will change pdq imo - any news on regime change in Russia would propel world markets around 10pct imo - I would rather be in the market now than out of it - I respect your opinion and time will tell who is right and who is wrong - atb dyor etc
I think the markets want the Fed to be more aggressive and push interest rates higher - maybe we will see a 1% rise next time around.
The aim I think would be to induce a shallow recession to bring inflation back in line and control commodity prices.
Then by early 2023 we could start to see a recovery with inflation falling but interest rates would take longer to fall so that control could be maintained.
Carrington,
Yes, a key aim of interest rates is to subdue inflation. UK interest rates are completely out of touch with inflation currently. I see interest rates rising consistently throughout 2022, 2023 and possibly beyond. Current UK base rate is 1%. Current forecasts gained from overnight index swaps point to a 2.25% rate at end 2022. (Source for this info in article below)
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/bank-of-england-fourth-straight-rate-hike-expected-as-inflation-soars.html
Beyond that I believe that rate will rise further to 3%+ at end 2023. BOE will be in a tight spot as they try to combat inflation without sending the UKs overpriced housing market into a downward spiral.
These rates are not high when you review history however there are a lot of overstretched people and companies out there used to constant sources of cheap credit.
"I'd say a reasonable reading of those 2 issues is that UK interest rates will take more than a year to start levelling off."
Value - the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast CPI inflation to peak at 8.7% in Q4 2022 - can you tell me why interest rates will keep rising beyond the end of this year if inflation has peaked and is falling from that point - surely the whole point of interest rate rises is to subdue inflation?
chilting
i dont see it as a cop out ...but ...being a realist is harder work than maybe just focusing on limited things and choosing to be pessimistic or optimistic ..an optimist sees opportunity but maybe misses danger...a pessimist sees danger but maybe misses opportunity.... a realist is working the hardest to see the right thing at the right moment and thus enjoy the best of both worlds
That's a cop out Pokerchips.
You can be an optimist or a pessimist and still be a realist.
"is it better for an investor to be an optimist or a pessimist?"
Good question...I would say be neither...be a realist
Optimists or pessimists often use emotional guesswork, whereas a realist will search for as much info and data with an open mind...siding with the data, good or bad.... rather than siding with feeling or emotion
So you are just hoping for a change.
I'd say a reasonable reading of those 2 issues is that UK interest rates will take more than a year to start levelling off. The war also a year or more of devastation and uncertainty to come.
I live in hope Valueplay.
It begs the question- is it better for an investor to be an optimist or a pessimist?
"short term chaotic macro."
So you are seeing UK interest rates levelling off and the Ukraine war ending in the coming months?
I just hope that we can hold the gains and continue in positive mode.
The fundamentals are still excellent here, just look through the short term chaotic macro.
Interest rates arent high - they are and have been ridiculously low....creating equaly ridiculously high property prices... a housing bubble ....but that is another story
I have already addressed the headwind of rising prices by stating that imo inflation is set to peak year end that IS looking forward why don't you read what I've actually stated
Hedged
Why 400p based on your thoughts on recession or agriculture ?
Answer where 400p comes from..
Why not 500p ??
Agreed, it Mks consumers are not immune from rising prices.
You know seem to have less conviction in your argument by failing to address the two headwinds i put to you despite you believing you "look forward" on a stock.
Hedged I only answered your questions with my opinion - re your latest post - rising prices hitting the poorest hardest, yes I agree with that but with respect MKS/OCADO customers are not poor and to reiterate MKS IS EXPANDING WITH OCADO going forward.
Dyor etc
Same here. From 95 down on itx to 400 up and some point.
I noticed it was oversold too, but the whole market was oversold given the declines from Jan / Feb.
As we officially enter a recession around Q4 this will only hurt the retail sector. Plus potential headwinds of rising prices with core agricultural products hitting the poorest hardest. I failed to see these two factors in your analysis when thinking about headwinds.
Correct Hedged but I didn't buy in at 2800p I bought in at between 717p and 850p on the basis that Ocado was oversold, trading at a price below what it was before it had most of the major contracts with MKS etc - to be fair Ocado was trading at 727p on the 18th May so more than 1 good day - re slow take up in technology MKS is expanding big with Ocado if you want to read through their latest set of results as is Kroger and the rest of the partners - as for interest rates/ inflation yes currently both high but a lot of market analysts pricing in a high for inflation/interest rates by year end - I tend to look forward when I invest rather than looking at what is happening right now
gl dyor etc
hedged
How are you envisaging the world looking like for this 400p to materialise ?? what is your scenario??
Carrington - the posters, myself included, predicting 400p haven't left. Having 1 good day doesn't compensate those who bought in at 2800.
The fundamentals haven't changed. No profit, slow up take in technology, deteriorating retail environment, increasing interest rates, high inflation.
you have Broadcom VMware takeover being supported with $32bn in bank financing - no chance that bond or bank lending markets will dry up ..Ocado selling bonds is no problem IMO
Absolutely Poker - MKS food, nothing but the best for Mrs C