Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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up almost 14% from the low this morning
I can't imagine that Kirsch will make a takeover bid for this. Not only would it be virtually impossible to take over without Board support but as other posters have said, the long term value in this stock is in iit's people and brand. Martman, such a high proportion of shares are held by Board Directors and why on earth would they sell out at a discount when they know the big bucks are coming next year. You could only buy this stock with their consent and you can be pretty sure they are not for selling. They have been increasing their holdings. It just doesn't fit with Kirsch's goals either. He wants those office blocks of MNR as a long term revenue stream. He'll quickly refinance them on better terms I've no doubt should he get control. I'm at a loss to why anyone is selling this stock at the moment. the MMs must be laughing all the way to the bank. On a pessimistic assessment NTA must be due net cash from Lancs, after paying creditors, of £50MM+. With Intarya paying the bills and only 6 months or so to wait, why sell at under £2 ? I expect a further surge here when more details are revealed by MNR of the profit share. Next accounts will show what provision they are making. We'll see.
I think the difference this time is that the profit share has been explicitly stated by NTA re the RNS of 11th Aug and recent feedback from MNR shows that profit due to NTA could be in the region of $170m so the share is due a substantial re-rating
Not for me to say but I think THURS/FRI next week will see a big rise here now its only my opinion based on the news from MNR EGM so brace yourself
surely it would have happened by now ? why the waiting ? ( on paper a takeover is a no brainer) .
You sound like a man who knows what he's talking about so here's the question,when shall I sell northacre (I paid £1 years ago) sinc then I've watched them them go up & downmore often than a hookers knickers
if not why not?
market cap 31 million aprox.Profit from lancasters 100 million aprox.If a buyer bought out nta for £3 per share the profits from one developement will pay for the purchase.If mnr Egm shows exactly what NTA are going to get and it is in the region of 100 million expect kiffin to put in a bid for NTA with or without MNR IMHO
http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?SharePrice=MNR Clearly undervalued - $110m profit potential for NTA on $35m current market cap
i too was very shocked to see investors selling - as i think it has the potential of reaching £4-£5 in the next 12 months , based on further lancaster sales and nta announcing new ventures , with future earnings - as london prime is the place to be - imo
One of the attractions here at "NTA" for myself is "Prime Property", ----------- at present i have my average entry s/p@27.8438p Gross (having taken some Profits), so there is plenty of scope for myself to buy on retraces of s/p , when / if , they happen . BW Wraith
IMO not much of the Lancs value is priced in. The company has hardly any debt. Let's be conservative and say that the proceeds of the Lancs will be £70MM (the next MNR accts will give more visibility of what they expect it to be). The company is probably cash neutral at the moment with new schemes about to commence that will generate cashflow and profit potential. I can't imagine why the company would be valued lower than it's net cash, so post Lancs this company should be sat on assets of £50MM plus. You'd have to think a value of £2-£3 would be realistic within 12 months. Lots of water to go under the bridge before then though. For now the discount to future cash is just about risk, i.e. the fact it isn't in the bank already and there are still £250M of flats/townhouses to sell. I was amazed at some of the selling last week. Yes, the SP has gone up a lot, but to my amateur eye, they still look good value. My instincts tell me that this is a quality company, with a great brand and a unique position in the mkt. Evans Randall seem to agree.
based on todays share price , how much of lancsters present sale has been priced in ? tia
Agree -with market cap under 40 mill - expected profits from The Lancasters over 60 mill , sp. ,after a little breather, should head north.
Long way to go yet me thinks.
Look at these trades, big boys are bying ...
I would say its a bit of both, ie the odd sale now is fine but only at the right price,however they feel they are underselling the quality product, [without buyers seeing the Finished job.] Go to the Northacre web page at look into the 2010 report and accounts. That has a pic of what the Lancasters will look like, by god, its FAB.
Does that mean they are not looking to make sales at the moment and instead waiting for spring time for a better yield ? I'm surprised, I thought they would want them sold/reserved asap. So, they are bullish about sales/yields ?
Yes their was, MNR and NTA do not want fast sales at all, most investors are reading the book from the wrong page. The site has pre sold all it requires for costs to be covered. They want a great deal of them to only hit the market on completion , just like builders did in the pre 2 007 days. In the spring another 10% -20% can go on the prices, just as the last 3 springs prior.!!
Was there any 'chat' about Lancs saless at the AGM ? any sense that more sales have been made since the last update ?
Link here to article re foreign demand from 9th. August 2010 http://www.buyassociation.co.uk/homes/text/london/buyassociation/foreign-buyers---camilla-dell.html
I don't think there is a real risk. It would be a natural concern though that if Kirsch took MNR, as seems likely, he would look very closely at the Lancs contract and apply the letter to minimise and drag out any payments that are due. I think that's what anyone in that position would do. Hopefully the contracts are watertight. NTA's BOD is very strong. Bear in mind it's a small business. It's a professional business full of Architects, designers, etc. The founder is chairman and CEO (now) and the addition of a Middle Eastern board member is good news when it comes to winning commissions and buyers from that region. I reckon they are in pretty good shape. We'll see
Really? Are people thinking Kirsh might get bored with Minerva and come over here to cause trouble instead? How are NTA's BOD? I know someone moved on a while back but that doesn't seem to have effected them much.
There is lots to chase this share price higher, but primne amongst them will be positive sales updates on the Lancasters and with every day that passes the company is closer to the Lancs profit distribution. Aside from that, they will start work on the Vicarage later this year and all the mood music suggests a deal with Evans Randall will be done soon. Mnr results are due soon and I would expect there to be some update on Lancs sales within that announcement. so, lots of upsides. My only is that control issues at MNR making people jittery here. Like you, I looked for a retrace and bought on it on Friday at £1. I hope we don't get another but who knows.
I know you are a perma bull for NTA and it does still look compelling, but I can't decide what's going to drive this now until those results come in. Might wait for a retrace...if it comes.