Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Yes, boredmum and Tara, your calculations are correct, but without encashment of the 52M and NTA´s announcement, I don´t think much will happen. According to my information today cash will flow within the next months and then we´ll have ... firework, I guess. At some time the market will adjust the mismatch of the SP and the real value of NTA, the latest when the accounts are overflowing. Wait and see.
Well 194.6p to be exact.
There may have been selling today as people expected the sp to go up instantly to show the profit from the Lancasters in todays Minerva accounts. The market can be slow to react, many calculations across chat boards today on worth, the figure of £52million profit would/should give us an sp of £1.90 and that is purely showing Lancasters profit with nothing else factored in. I shall hold until the market catches up and may possibly buy on dips unless our buyer appears and drives the sp up again. G.L. To all holders.
You have a pretty forthright way of expressing yourself but I'm inclined to agree with you. I calculate the NTA value the same way. Outlook for profilts from Lancs looks great but won't be fuully disclosed fopr probably another 12 months. Interims and RNS with news of sales shoudl provide boosts here. So little liquidity that the slightest sniff of buying sends the SP soaring.Very surprised to see PIs selling. I know there are always other places to put your cash but I personally have not seen too many stronger than this. Aside from the Lancs windfall it looks very solid, great brand, The Vicarage, etc. We'll see.
Northacres profits from the Lancasters are £52M so far. Northacres shares at todays price come to £33M with no debt. If you are thinking you get the company and 19M cash in for free you are dead right. Ppofit takers from 30p showed up today, however , the fall in my view will be very short lived indeed. When the buying starts you will NOT get stock without being ripped of by the MM.
I am officially giving up trying to understand the market. I just don't understand the drop today. what looks like a £10MM increase in NTA's share of Lancs is met with a drop. Perhaps people were expecting news of more sales ?? I sold out of MNR this morning and will hold here.
I think there are a lot of people who don't look at the details. The clue to NTA's share of LAncs profits has been in MNR's accounts for some time but the market doesn't react to it. This share has such low liwquidity that any little change can have a big impact on the SP. The BoD own 50% of the company and they aren't selling. There are some IIs who are unlikely to sell and it probably leaves a couple of million shares only that are available to the market. I am very confident in this and will hold. I really think this will see £2+ within 6 months. The Lancs value will apreciate and they'll have new projects to announce. My giuess is that the next upwards tick will come when they announce their next project, probably this year, or break ground at the vicarage. We might have to be patient to see the big rise but it's hard to imagine it isn't around the corner.
Why is the sp dropping. Result of MNR is as excpected. No change in Lancasters result.
Why is this dropping, surely the increase isnt already priced in?
If I have done m sums correctly it now looks like MNR, at 30 June 2010, are valuing NTA's share of LAncs at £52MM. Net value of trading properties £170MM less 'Group's share of profit' at £118MM leaving £52MM for NTA asuming they are the only other shareholder. Good news I would say as total value attached to the site still conservative. Overall results at MNR look miserable.
they have done deal north of £3250 psf-wait on this one
Hi Tara i first saw your tip back in march and made a mental note to buy in but forgot, doh! I bought in today as it is still a no brainer imo, 10k at 1.34. Where do you see the sp going tomorrow?
Read the RNS £107M for 20% of the site.!!! Directors told us at the AGM they are looking fo up tor £600M of total sales in the next 12 months. The £2,000 a ft you refer to was for 30% of the flats in pre sold 2007. Again see the RNS
I don't seen MNR using 3000/sqft. In the past they have based the valuation on the yield of confirmed sales only. It would probably be hard to justify a different accounting policy now, and why would they. I'm expecting a decent step up in NTA's share of Lancs profits tmw, to high £50s, and more to come with MNR and NTA interims/annuals over the next 12 months. I'm still hopeful NTA will bring in a deal with MNR to develop the Odeon. Look at the Vicarage, they sold their equity but kept a profit share as developer. In the case of the Odeon, they sold their equity stake back to MNR and whose to say they won't do the same. the issue for MNR is finding the cash to fund the dev, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Vicarage deal repeated for Odeon. given the Lancs success surely it would have to be viewed positively for both shares. I'm hopeful about tmw - been disappointed before though !
Stop it. Sales are off £2000 per sq ft - they achieved the occasional £3000 per sq ft on 2 flats which were sold to middle eastern investors/owners. Whilst they could hit this cap val on other flats there is no way they will get this accross the scheme. Not that this isn't a great share to be in but stop ramping or getting so carried away!
bsssett1 Minervas results will show a conservative amount of the profit share due to Northacre. £41M last time out based on £2,000 per ft with 30% sold. ????? this time round based on £3,000 per ft and 50% sold at 30/06/10. Agreed hundreds of investors now know that Tue could be rather good fun. Minerva will have very little good news for its shareholders other than the Lancasters [in my view]
Article from Friday stating demand high for new London prime developments. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/new-prime-in-demand-ftimes-fd0064550261.html
I'm expecting the valuation/profit share to be calculated conservatively in the MNR accounts. If history is anything to go by they will use confirmed sales yield as at 30 June 2009 as the basis for valuation. I think that means it will be based on the pre sales only. It'll be interesting to see if they have made more sales they'll announce. All the evidence suggests the final yield on this site will be at the top of estimates at £500mm+, more positive news on high london prime just last week. Hard not to be very positive about this company. Looking beyond Lancs, if you owned a prime london site for development, Northacre must now be the 'go to' developer. The market has in the past been slow to cotton on to the implications of MNR accounts on NTA. That could happen again but I suspect that now the profitshare arrangement is in the public domain that will change. Tuesday could be good.
i am totally with you on this - but i am trying to be more conservative
What you need to keep in mind is the following. Minervas ONLY bright spot in these accounts is The Lancasters, with Northacre getting 50% of the rise a mere £60 in total will give Northacre another £30M.!! [on top of the £41M with loads more to come as the site completion grows near.
I'm not renowned on here for my positivity but i read it the same way. I see lots of potential. They may want to try and keep a lid on the Lancs value but it/Odeon were in at £351MM as at 31 Dec 2009 and £41M to NTa. In the 6 months to 30 June 2010 they sold another 25% of the scheme at a higher yield, plus a few other units too. My expectation would be for NTA slice to be in the £60MM range with more to come. I bought in to this in March and topped up on dip. I'm tempted to buy some more.
bassette1 - it will be interesting to see what valuation they will place on lancasters- - also the amounty allocated to NTA . on a realistic note - if the amount increases from £41M to £55 -£65 that alone should push the sp near £2 - i think ps - if the valuation goes anything higher and NTA's share increases to more than £65M ..... then we should have a major lift off - £2.50 ........
Respect to you Tara. It was there in the detail all along - exactly as you said. The key paras in the 30 Dec 2009 accounts are 9 and 18. I hadn't picked it up. Mova, it'll be in MNR's accounts at this level of detail because their is the controlling interest.
tara - how come nta do not place that figure of £41m into their update ? is it an accounting practice , as it is in MNRs figures - apologies if it is a silly question ? tia
Note on page 9 it does not say the other £41M is Northacres, that is for investors to see for themselves.[ or your accountant]