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Someone please advise how the debt is going to get paid off.
To repeat for the hundredth time. They find hydrocarbons using the cash they have available and then they sell them, thus paying off the debt. Same model as any other e&p. ATB
Broke 30p. Nice!
As for “reopening” short - please point to where you state you closed it.
It's not the same model. Their production isn't generating the size of cashflows needed to pay it off !!
It's funny isn't it.
I was here at 100p, opened the short and there wasn't an argument or come back from anyone. Please don't tell me there's an argument now when the fundamentals haven't improved in the slightest! In fact they are worse as oil is now lower !!
Adam - I suggest you scroll through all the pages of drivel on this forum and you will find my short call at 100p. And not just that, all the way down!
So, i'm all ears. With a financial cashflow model that is broken and a rapidly depleting reserves base how they going to find over $1bn?
What are you on about, nickel? It generates north of $200m op cash flow pa, and with the debt currently trading at sub 50% of the booked value, they can buy back substantial parts of it from cash. Your advice to people to sell near the all time lows goes down as one of the most value destructive posts I’ve ever read. Please try and understand the story before taking any further position. Hope that helps.
Do what you want To on open your shirt.You will be the first brave one to do it this time around . All shorts presently closed and sp rising.Its a free world.Personally I am buying. Should continue its rise up towards 70p but you never know you may be right I just don't agreed with you!!! Be careful you don't get seriously burnt
Nickel may or may not have had a short on at 100p, BUT he was DEFINITELY encouraging people to sell on the Friday it fell to 5p. Dreadful.
The cash flow model is not broken. It is currently funding a sizeable exploration plan and debt from existing cash flow and it has cash on the balance sheet. The reserves are of course depleting as they sell hydrocarbons, but they have cash available to fund further exploration of multiple assets based around their current producing fields. The duster in the north was never booked into reserves. So it is nonsense to say the cash flow model is broken or suggest the reserves will continue to deplete.
Wigwammer, I was most certainly here from 100p. I made the short case all the way down to the low/mid teens. As I say, go through all the recent drivel and you will find those posts!
NOG have an enterprise value over $1.1BN and the production trend is firmly down. You seen where production was only a number of years back - it was closer to 50,000bopd! The sales volume is now below 30,000bopd and they are having no major success with the drill bit. Cash from operations is going into capex but that's not dealing with the debt load. I repeat, how are they going to find over $1bn in cash when the financial model won't facilitate it.
Nickel - the shares are up 350%+ from where you last urged people to sell. You have not exactly covered yourself in glory. Yes - the production has fallen. We all know that - that’s why the shares fell 95%+ from peak. The point is - with cash to cover further exploration and no debt maturity until 2022 - are they going to have better luck now focusing on the areas where they are already producing? If they do get success - given current leverage - the value created from this level for holders will be exponential. A more imminent worry for shorters is that Goldman Sachs are looking for ways to expedite the realisation of that value - and with the debt trading at a fraction of book and cash available then shorters are opening themselves to a nasty surprise. But instead of sitting on the fence just tell us - are you shorting here or not ?
Wigwammer - will answer you in full later.
Simple question, nickel. Are you now going short. Yes or no? I can only assume the reason a straightforward answer is not forthcoming is because you are no longer quite so sure.
Wigammer - I’m extremely sure of my position :)
Nickel - as “extremely sure” as you were calling this a sell at 7p? 350%+ is rather a large error :)