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i also think this has a very long way to go. II's don't build large stakes to loses money!!
Adam Good Morning, share your opinion. Well I am on board until its rerated towards multiple of todays SP..IMO
Lol wiseinv thank you for your words of wisdom. Only thing is, your around a year too late. If you expressed such wisdom in NOG then you’d have saved a lot of people money. Shame you only realised a week ago how ‘bad’ this is. Jog on
Be very careful. Because the price is too high.
The debt has gone from 960m to over 1bn
They have failed in drilling
Cash is redecused
IMHO this can easy drop to 10p or lower of the BoD doesn't address these issues.
Just tried dummy selling and will take over 100k worth off me at 26.6 which is above bid. Strong on bid. Not selling a penny below 40p. GL
Some cute trade action this morning with someone (who i think is desperate for shares) selling tiny volume on a trade by trade basis to spam recent trades with red. Very cute
Nice action this AM a move past 40p imo this week. GL
Predictions of where we will be by close? We’re already past half way to 30’s in first few minutes so think it’s a given imho we will be in the 30’s today! DYOR
You sure your not looking for a cheaper entry GS having earlier said you sold for a 8% trade?
Both Numis and Peel Hunt still have a forecasted target price of over 100p and consider this as oversold.
My post below references broker comments from 2 months ago, not 1 month ago...
On Saturday I said I'd post some info based on some research....
On 21st Aug 19 Berenberg analysts said Nostrum Oil & Gas is struggling to show its equity value and is facing an operational dilemma after disappointment at the Chinarevskoye field in Kazakhstan was replicated at the Northern area as well. Berenberg says the energy company will likely soon start refinancing processes for its 2020 bonds, which will be challenging if it can't achieve an operational turnaround by then. The bank cut its rating to sell, from buy, and slashes its target price to 25 pence, from 200 pence previously (shares were 30p 21/8/19).
I don't think even Berenberg thought they would temporarily fall to 5.4p (11th Oct) but the price is now around what Berenberg said CURRENT fair value would be until more positive news is known. The Well 41 news on 11th Oct wasn't even known when Berenberg said 25p.
TR1's: FPP Asset Management bought 3.14% on 16/10, Standard Life Aberdeen reduced from 6.11% to 4.67% on 11th (the drop day). There have been no other TR-1's in 2019.
Depending on what time FPP Asset Management bought on 16th Oct, they could already be 18% (£283,500) in profit. Quarter of a mil in 2 days isn't bad.
What's my point? Be careful. 25p could be fair value until more news in known and until the bonds are sorted.
Adam great research , thanks for sharing.
Theres also the 2 institutions that have been buying in the last week to add to the list. GL
Mayfair Investments BV 48,333,300 25.7%
Baring Vostok Capital Partners Ltd. (Russia) 30,588,054 16.3%
Aberforth Partners LLP 20,594,333 10.9%
Harding Loevner LP 9,000,357 4.78%
M&G Investment Management Ltd. 8,970,675 4.77%
Farringford NV 8,152,557 4.33%
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 6,353,673 3.38%
Majedie Asset Management Ltd. 6,231,937 3.31%
Wellcome Trust Ltd. (Direct Investments) 5,765,977 3.06%
Insti’ invested here. Also CEO and other directors vested here too. GL
You can not judge this by lack of activity on the board, im grateful this board isn’t like that of say VAST (which im invested in) where you get fickle investors typing all sorts of crap ramping or deramping.
My biggest gains were made when these boards were quite (IDE rose from 0.70p to 10p with the ‘herd’ taking notice at around 8p causing SP to spike at 10p and drop back down - PRD from 1.2p to 10p when hardly anyone was interested until again around 7p - PAT from 2.6p entry to 12p where again there was no more than a handful of posters. Theres more but you get my drift).
Look at the volume traded on here the past week, we dont need a jumpy board for this to move back up. The mm’s play around with these shares how they please but since this hit rock bottom the trajectory of the share price has been north and will continue to be so.
The most recent insider trading was a director last year buying over 3 million pounds worth of stock at 247p - ask yourself why. He had confidence in this coming good to front the type of money he did.
Apart from Standard Life selling out (causing the SP to crash with their last 2m sell at 6p) all the other major institutions are still vested in here. With over 55% of stock owned by them. We now have other insti’s buying in here at 25p+.
If you cant see the value here, then thats on you. Im certain this moves back up to somewhere close to 100p in the very short term. Savings made across the board in Q4 2018 which is why we’ve shown a profit in each quarter this year, news on GTU3 due imminently, talks of a takeover in the background and just in general a really bombed out SP will see this rerate.
See you guys back here Sunday evening or Monday morning. Until then dyor and invest accordingly. GL
News on GTU3 is due out any moment, with this being worked on for at least 18 months.
Kai-Uwe Kessel, Chief Executive Officer of Nostrum Oil & Gas, commented:
“I am pleased to announce the start of the hot commissioning stage and first gas into GTU3. This marks a significant milestone for Nostrum. We now have a clear line of sight to full commissioning and being able to move all our raw gas production through GTU3. This will allow us to strip more LPG from our raw gas than we can today, leading to better margins. GTU3 will also help us to further optimise operational costs at field site with one control room managing the entire field. This step brings us closer to completing a unique set of world class infrastructure in the pre-Caspian basin in North West Kazakhstan.”
Geordieshores, correct with your figures however It doesn’t t tell the full story, take last year for example.
One of the main disappointments was the Biyski West asset in the pre-Caspian basin, where a well bore collapsed in well 234, meaning drilling has now been halted.
Nostrum's revenue fell 3.8% to USD389.9 million, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation declining by 0.3% to USD231.2 million.
Nostrum has swung to a pretax loss of USD92.2 million, after a USD49.8 million pretax profit in 2017, due to a USD150 million impairment of 78 million barrels worth of proven and probable reserves because of the drilling problems.
However, net operating cash flow rose to USD214.0 million from USD182.6 million, and operating costs fell 12% to USD49.9 million. General and administrative costs were down 30% to USD20.3 million.
Chief Executive Kai-Uwe Kessel commented: "Looking forward to 2019, I want to ensure we continue the positive trend we set in the fourth quarter of stabilising production combined with some of the lowest drilling costs we have ever achieved.
"I am optimistic we can grow production based on the lessons we have learnt and the results of the Schlumberger study due in the third quarter of 2019.’’
Thanks Billthebank, very informative.
I did a super quick day trade on Wednesday and made 8% on £5k. When it went up again on Friday I spent some time researching it, but I'm kicking myself for not doing the same as I did on Wednesday.
I'm a firm Believer that if something is too good to be true, then it usually is, especially in this game. If the rerate was that guaranteed this would never have dropped like it did on Thursday, even if it did go back up on Friday, the momentum would have been maintained. Those city boys don't miss much and I just felt the volume and buying would have been a lot more prolific if this 26p share should really be double that or treble that (or quadruple that according to some people).
This notice board would also be jumping on a Saturday day but it's not.
Like I say I'm looking at this very carefully as a bigger, longer term investment. I'm putting it through all sorts of screens and two of my volunteer helpers are also having a look.
I'll post a bit more info soon.
Adam Great posts Really great posts Thanks for your in depth research.
Geirdieshores: That is the whole point.The shares have nosedived for probably that reason and IIs sold and shorters had a field day
Your point about 2019 is the key.The time is now and at present valuing the co at £48M is out of date.
As I said confidence has returned.
The IIs are accumulating
The Shorters are gone
The company has stabilised
MC bought 1.5M shares when the sp was closer to 248p
The exec are undertaking a full review and news is imminent
TBH How many buying signals does an investor need.I am holding and topping up next week once I have sold my grannie!!!
And a bonus? This is not AIM!!!
GOOD LUCK ON YOUR DECISION.
Are you researching prior to considering whether to invest or not, or are you already invested and concerned about your capital?
If it is one IMO Jump on board.If it is the latter relax our time is here and more is to come.
Along with SLN and JLP these are my favourite shares for 2020 with PREM being my crazy wild card!!! We all need one
I'm not off the bed just yet, regarding the post by at 22.38 Friday.You mention Revenue of US$174.2m, Net operating cash flows of US$116.8 million and EBITDA of US$110.2 million (H1 2018: US$113.2 million) and EBITDA margin of 63.3% (H1 2018: 59.1%) and say Closing cash for the period of US$120.8 million (Q1 2019: US$75.7 million).Where does it state they have made a net profit in the past 4 years? excluding the potential profit this year (2019).Remember net profit is the money you make after all your bills and everything have been paid. I don't dispute they have a turnover, I don't dispute anything as such, I was just saying they have not made a net profit since 2014, but might this year which would obviously be a big positive.
Regarding adamk87 post saying I posted false information. I would just like to clarify what was inaccurate? I took the Net Profit information from Stockopedia on the row for annual net profit which said they hadn't made a net profit since 2014 (£156m profit).
I am talking about net profit. Stockopedia didn't have a figure for 2019. Can anyone confirm if a net profit has been generated by Nostrum in any of the past 4 years?
Remember I excluded 2019 when they were predicted to make a £21 million net profit.
Happy to be corrected if I was not accurate.
Thanks to everyone who replied to the post I made on Friday tea time. I've started to read some of them but after getting to post number four (four down from here, adamk87) I've decided to read the rest when I wake up Sat morning.
Also, after seeing so much arguing and bickering on other stock posts on LSE it's an absolute pleasure (and extremely informative) to find almost everyone the Nostrum forum are providing really useful, balanced information. We might not all agree on all points, but at least we are all leaving sensible posts.
I only wish this would continue for every stock on this site...
Thanks again.
The more research done into NOG the more i cant believe where the SP is at. This company is frighteningly big, for it to be valued with a mcap of around 50 million really is laughable.
BTB i have 150k shares here at an average of just below 18p - i’l look to add another 50k on Monday and more if i can free up funds.
DYOR and all will realise the nature of the beast we’re dealing with here. GL
So in the August update we were provide info specifically relating to Frasnian reservoir (the ‘duster’ from last week) where shareholders were clearly given info ‘based on initial results we do not expect cashflow’ - so the panic/shorters jumping on this to explain the drop and why this will fall back down is a non starter.
Reason for the drop is predominately to do with the institution selling down at any price they could, general market conditions and negative sentiment.
Sentiment is now returning, institutions are now buying back in with some heavy buying the past week.
Debt is more than manageable, with 2018 Q3 results showing a balance sheet above 100m available with the intention and statement to always have 100m available throughout 2019 - something which to date the company has achieved, with the half year report confirming this.
45 producing wells, drills being completed on multiple others. A 2 billion asset base. As of today were trading at a discount to our cash position.
The entire 400mmboe+ reserves relate to the north east and west areas where they are producing. They have both op cash and cash on the bsheet to develop these assets further.
- The drop was way over done, way way overdone. In reality this could and has carried a market cap equivalent to an SP of 100p+.
- I expect in the coming weeks this will rerate to a minimum of 70-100p with institutions adding, seller clearing and news due on multiple fronts coupled with the board stating on multiple occasions recently they are now looking to add value for shareholders in the near term (when we’re talking shareholders, they’re talking to the big players that have millions of shares tied up here - us smaller pi’s are just along for the ride and those that hold will be rewarded).
Strong buy and hold. GL holders.
H1 2019 Drilling
· As at 30 June 2019, the Company had 45 wells in production (18 oil wells and 27 gas-condensate wells).
· Drilling has been completed on the two wells in the Northern area, 41 & 42. Well 42 has encountered three horizons with gas shows during drilling. These are the Frasnian, Mullinski and Vorobyovski. The testing of the Vorobyovski and Mullinski reservoirs was completed confirming gas-condensate saturation but without commercial flow. The testing of the upper Frasnian reservoir is ongoing but based on initial results we do not expect commercial flow. During drilling of Well 41 gas shows were seen in four different reservoirs, namely the Frasnian, Mullinski, Ardatovski and Vorobyovski. A drill stem test (DST) conducted during drilling of the Frasnian confirmed similar reservoir pressure to well 40. Following testing of the lowermost horizon, the Vorobyovski, we encountered a small leak in the sliding sleeve door within the production tubing. This has caused a delay in testing the upper horizons. We are now moving ahead with testing the Frasnian section of well 41 which is the same horizon from which well 40 produces. Initial results show a flow of hydrocarbons but the cleaning up of the well and longer term testing will be required before we can provide more detailed information.
· Drilling is currently ongoing with two rigs in operation. One rig is drilling a side track into the Bashkirian oil reservoir and the other rig is drilling in the North targeting the Vorobyovski horizon (well 361).
2019 Drilling and sales volume guidance
· The location of additional wells in 2019 will be finalised once we have completed the evaluation of the first two Northern Wells.
· 2019 production guidance remains unchanged at 30,000 boepd, corresponding to sales volumes of 28,000 boepd.
GTU3 continues to progress with hot commissioning now underway and final commissioning targeted for the end of Q3 2019. On the strategic front we are working towards bringing the acquisition of Positive Invest to shareholders whilst at the same time working on the strategic review of our business. Our primary focus remains on trying to find ways to grow production in the near term. We are working to update our own geological models and incorporate the two independent studies currently being worked on by Schlumberger and PM Lucas in the North East and West of the field into the model."
- We are due news on this front imminently!