Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Given the assets, where do we think this recovers to?
It wasn't that long ago that we were in the 30p mark and just over 12 months ago near on 100p
Part of it is the new revenue update and part of it is the covid recovery that all markets experienced
Doesnt look like she wants to hang around, can understand the increase, even with its debt it financial position for mcap this size is strong, its game is strong, its better than just a survivor.
I don’t think they confirm their imminent demise whatsoever, ANO. Hang around - let’s see what happens :)
Mayfair Investment down to 17.1%
The NOG guidance for 2020 is 19 Mboe/d (or kboe/d, as preferred).
It is trivial to calculate that that represents a ±33% per annum decline in 2020. This means production at YE 2020 of =15 Mboe/d. As half the production is gas, it will be at limit that the two smaller gas trains can operate. So, by 2021 gas production can be expected to end and so will LPG and condensate production. Only oil production will be left and based on past product splits will be ±2 Mb/d, and declining.
Put the 2020 guidance production into a simple cashflow and NOG needs an average 2020 Brent price of ±$39 to end the year with zero cash in the bank. The message is clear.
As early as late 2017 the company had two options, 1) Rat’s wheel: spend $s drilling, and try to arrest production decline, or 2) Stop all activity: have a party on the $s in the bank until we are broke. It took them until the end of 2019 to change from 1) to 2).
And indeed a ‘party’ there is. The ex-CEO left in December with a package of $1.4 million, as thanks for building the GTU white elephant and destroying 99% of shareholder value. It has to be said, in all fairness, that does take a certain skill.
The Chairman in the annual report is smiling. He should be, he took $500,000 overseeing this exceptional performance.
To boot the NOG Board confirms NOG’s imminent demise in the conclusion of their 2019 Annual Report’s Viability Statement!
So you think they’ll go bust ?
O n G production companies run by drillers and geologists often end up is reserves downgrading. NOG is a typical case of this nature. They have no clue of their reservoir behavior. Sad story of professional incompetence.
The 1.1.2019 reserves report is finally out. The 2P reserves are reduced by 66% to 138 MMboe. In my post of 21.05.19, my prediction was that the best the 2P reserves volume could be was =120 MMboe. That was very close and they are probably overstated even now, after this massive revision.
Currently, the cash in hand is just $65 MM, and production decline continues.
On 01.02.19 I predicted that the company would experience negative cashflow in 2020, with zero cash and a debt of $1.1B at the end of 2020. And so it will be.
There is zero 3rd party gas, that is ZERO, in the vicinity of Nostrum’s operations. Yet another piece of misinformation from the NOG Board. So, the entire plant of 400 MMscf/d of capacity will have to be mothballed in 2021. End of story - lights out.
Exactly as expected.
Looks like the call was right despite all the noise from a few on here.
GLA
....even 3p is too much now, administration looms large, no takers for the company as debt is too big!
National pride I doubt. It’s a simple equation, let them default, go bust, then hand the licence to someone else with deeper pockets. No wonder there’s no offers for the company, just wait till they go under and you can have the lot for a peppercorn. It’s curtains for this one I’m afraid, it’s only a matter of time.
time to buy. it dropped so low and almost worthless. so much have been spent and kazaktan govrn wont let this fail easily. its their national pride.
Genuinely hope you haven’t lost everything here , I’m sure you bailed as saw the light ?
H'mm.....Oil price well down, oil professionals say it could drop below $25, so much debt with this company, classic case and perfect storm for extinction. Board have to get their act together pretty quick, sale at 5p is looking likely or even 3p. i administration happens the the bones will be picked over.
.
what would be the realistic range of an offer?
Remember this was a share what was on 600
this perked up yesterday afternoon, wonder if there will be any follow through today.
Nice rise, love this share
Needs to go up another 90 % for me
up 10% and on the leaderboard, anyone noticed?
So is there a firm bid for NOG ?
Back on 31st Oct last year I said (judging by the accounts) that they had 6 months to get the debt down or the Sp will drop dramatically. At the time hardly any on here took any notice and derided my opinion. The same happened at Thomas Cook when I voiced my opinion 3/4 months before they went bust. Well the Sp has dropped by over 50% since 31st and there are still posters believing everything in the garden is rosy, cannot help some people, especially Wigwammer. Fine if you don't want to listen, but take heed this will drop further unless debt is sorted, and quick!
You gotta luv NOG, buy when everyone else sh*ts themselves