Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Thanks for conceding that you made an 8p sell call here and that you sold out of EUA at 1p. Whoops and whoops. Strange that nickel pickle claims to have closed his (alleged) short - why would he do that if he was so sure where this is heading? Great weekend one and all. Come on the lions :)
Here's my comments when NOG was closer to 100p lol. And not surprising to see no comeback on how NOG save themselves ...!
Nickel_Investor
Posts: 4,506
Price: 81.00
No Opinion
"Enterprise value well over $1bn
No wonder this is dropping !"
Nickel_Investor
Posts: 4,506
Price: 72.90
No Opinion
Cash continues to erode , crazy debt level continues to climb. Enterprise value deteriorates again
I see people are calling Nickel a fantasist over on the EUA board. He sold his position at a penny, then later claims he sold at 4p. Take whatever he says with a giant pinch of salt. ATB :)
When you’re circa 200% offside on a call you’ve lost the debate :)
Nickel_Investor
Posted in: NOG
Posts: 4,588
Price: 8.00
No Opinion
RE: Going bust because of the debt11 Oct 2019 08:06
It’s a case of getting out , grabbing what you can salvage before the inevitable
Something is unclear in the reports of Schlumberger and Prime Minister Lucas. Are stocks reduced so much that it’s even scary to admit what is contained in these reports?
With capex delivering unsuccessful results (no growth, production and reserves declining rapidly) and cash balances being absorbed these are Really uncertain times for shareholders, that's 100%
If anyone thinks they have a response to this then try. And if you're getting personal, you've already lost the debate !
Thank you for conceding that the production facts I present are true, and contradict your initial post. Your new opinion is that the company has only six months to get debt down - a view you don’t substantiate with anything at all. ATB :)
It is my opinion only, you don't have to listen. I was enlightened to have a look at this share a few months back with a view to investing but due diligence prevented me. Time scale six months to get debt sorted or sp will drop dramatically.
To repeat - your point is misleading. There was a large step down in production in 2017/18 of 22%. So far this year production is is down 8.5% yoy. The target decline in Q4 is lower again at 3.9%. These are facts. The suggestion that you warned about TCG and work in administration is neither here nor there to me - I didn’t own TCG and have been listening to similar warnings about NOG since the shares were at 6p. It has been profitable to take the opposite view. Hope that helps :)
Three months before the collapse of TCG I told all and sundry about D4E or it was finished because of the state of the debt, most posters derided me at the time, I kept on repeating until the end. It is a similar case here, I take no pleasure in this but my day job is an administrator so I know what to look for. NOG unless they get the debt sorted will go a similar way in my view.
That’s not what the production stats suggest. They suggest that a hurricane is now becoming a gentler decline, and hopefully at some point will turn positive, with some drill success.. Please see my previous posts from yesterday. ATB
Just studied full accounts for past two years, my stance is D4E sooner rather than later otherwise I hate to think of the alternative. The gradual decline could become could become a hurricane.
bought in today, naïve maybe.. we'll see
Just one post today at 7.37am - seems out of balance with the number of trades, 202. This post is just to test if the site is working - perhaps everyone is glued to the share trades screen to see where the SP is going next....
I would expect this to stay within it's current value of +27p value, and just for a bit of Gamesmanship, say this will close
around 31.2p
All are welcome to participate, just for the hell of it.
GLA
FD states in Q1 conference call that UOG processing agreement alone could contribute $50m in FCF pa. To put this in context, the interest costs on debt for 2018 were $49.4m ie this deal alone covers the cost of debt. Processing to start in 2020... “And then on UOG, if I can just address the economics on UOG agreements. There are both -- there are 2 things. One is to treat their condensate, where it's very simple, we'll get paid $8 a barrel on that condensate. So they send through the -- through our gas treatment unit starting in Q4 of 2020. And then we will be purchasing a stream of Ural Gas, which is essentially us purchasing the LPG and dry gas from them. And this is done on a formula which is all the small details are confidential. But in order to give you an idea, they have 8 wells that they've drilled, which will come online and should produce, according to Wood Mackenzie, around 15,000 BOEs per day with a similar split of liquids and gas as Nostrum has from its gas condensate reservoirs. If you take those -- if you take that production and you put it through assuming the $8 per barrel of condensate treatment for your processing fee and you then assume our current prices for sales gas and LPG, then you will generate to Nostrum on a per annum basis approximately $50 million of additional free cash flow.
Further to my earlier point ANO - working through the sales volume forecast of 27k boepd for FY19, suggests a Q4 yoy volume decline of just 3.9%. The amelioration of decline may explain some of the price strength today.
Thanks ANO. I see your forecasts are based on straight lining a 30% pa production decline into perpetuity. The production decline in 2017/18 was circa 22%. The 2018/19 decline expected to be much smaller at 8.5%. Can I suggest that in light of this, the production assumptions behind your summary require reflection. ATB
Referring to my previous posts (see dates below) the summary remains unchanged:
• Production continues to decline, as NOG acknowledges (with no solutions proffered)
• Gas production <70 MMscf/d and falling, only 1 train (either GTU-1 or -2 required), as predicted in January
• There are/will be zero reserves in Trident/Stepnoy Leopard as, by definition, these resources can only be Contingent Resources, which have zero value
• Operating cash position expected to be negative during 2020, with >$1B of debt, as stated previously
• Chinarevskoye reserves must be overstated, as stated earlier, and by definition would fall to zero at the time the bullet immediately above transpires
• GTU-3 takes gas production capacity to 400 MMscf/d, so
• GTU-3 is redundant - in fact a white elephant that shareholders paid for
It takes a special kind of skill to destroy 97% of shareholder value in 5 years, which can be expected to reach 100%
Schlumberger can not be expected to salvage this situation.
No-one can be expected to buy this company, and certainly not a major.
Previous post dates: 18.12.18; 2.1.19; 21.5.19; 31.7.19
Ihad a chance to buy at 17 but waited bot lower. Went nap andi wane up to b 29. Ifiot!
Prices quotes wrong 26p just paid in auction can’t buy nor sell - they’re going to give up and let it run - 30p +incoming
Don’t be fooled Tree shake incoming. When it breaks 25p again there will be no stopping it - a fast run up to 30’s. Hold tight. This moves fast. Imho DYOR
Hold tight - this is going to be an exciting afternoon
I hope Nickle bought some this morning at 18p instead of moaning all the time, lol
1.30pm - 25p paid - Just call me mystic meg ...so is my 30p by close also coming true. I think so imho DYOR