Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yes good news.
Happy about this,
The increase in subscription shares includes an additional subscription by Adam Reynolds, a director of the Company. Mr Reynolds has subscribed for 500,000 Subscription Shares in addition to the 250,000 shares previously subscribed for as announced on 1 October 2018. The directors of Premaitha, other than Adam Reynolds, who are independent of the transaction consider, having consulted with the Company's nominated adviser, Cairn Financial Advisers LLP, that the terms of the transaction are fair and reasonable insofar as the Company's shareholders are concerned.
We should appreciate that the fact that the CEO was in the states talking to TMO directly about debt relief which means that they approved the deal in the 1st place with Illumina. it would be frankly a strange endeavour to embark on a trip like that otherwise if they were against the settlement in the 1st place. the reason why premaitha picked tmo as a platform is the whole business model was to target a quick sale to tmo post land grab. IONA test is run on TMO's Ion Torrent Proton, Ion Torrent Chef and S5 sequencing instruments which, unlike some of the reagents, cannot be substituted readily by instruments from an alternative manufacturer. It uses a massively parallel sequencing (MPS) of whole DNA using ionosphere to amplify >100k times and so has a different technical approach to that of Illumina hence the need for a completely new illumine ce-ivd test hence needing fresh r&d.
in all the very, very overdone negativity by the same usual suspects here it should be appreciated that illumine have their own ce-ivd test already (called verfi). they have essentially settled with premaitha for a test they already have in part. this should have been a sign of confidence in the company. so illumine didn't need any reason to settle with premaitha the way the did which was to await 2 years till the new test for licensing fees. they could have requested this now and backdate it.
yes, fair points there Hemo.I would have thought that TF must have been in agreement with the settlement in the first place wouldn't they? The way management talk it seems that all is hunky dory but yes, I do get your drift about a conflict of interest so to speak, or is it?
I am intrigued by the position TF finds itself in and what it’s next play is in this complex saga. I would also like some reassurance on their status in the NIPT market and their intentions regarding Premaitha.
It will no longer have a NIPT foothold in the PPA territories, which it will have to cede to Illumina.
It seems that Premaitha is now platform-agnostic, which suggests to me that in the PPA territories they will sell an Illumina product and outside the PPA territories they will sell either TF or Illumina products according to customer demand. That must irk TF and I am worried we are at risk of alienating them.
There is talk now of a debt for equity swap and even a debt write-off. Where will that lead us? TF could have 20% of the equity .What does it mean? TF could exercise their warrants at an overall price of say 12p and then we use the proceeds to repay the debt but then we have a significant shareholder who could effectively be supporting a major rival if Illumina take most of the business.
I don't think we can keep both TF and Illumina happy and we have to get in bed with one of them wholly. It seems it should have been Illumina from the start but we are where we are and we probably need to split the company in two as has been mentioned previously and work with Ilumina in PPA territories and TF outside. I don't think it would be so much of an issue if TF didn't have so much influence and control over us.
But it needs clarity and resolution because I don't believe the line that we can work with both and everything will be fine with the best of both worlds for Premaitha.
AR seems to think the debt relief will happen by year end. Hugely positive if they can pull this off
Yes, not definitely needed, required or one hopes significant. What I do assume is it is not ruled out and as I said imv further funding is more likely than not. Thats all i have said and I'm happy with that view in whatever form, timescale and method it comes. I doubt we will generate revenues to make seeking further funding for expansion etc redundant. That's my realistic view. We will see in NEXT financial year and at what higher level we can secure it.The bod consistently paint a rosy view and underperform. I see no reason to expect no requirement for further funds or amend that view as more than likely. Thats all. Yes, that same consistent bod misjudgement has caused immense frustration and need for bod to recoup some credibility is yet another blow if it means wanting to run with premaitha as the primary strategy rather than seek a TO actively. Let's wait to see the new strategy, agm news and more one hopes and lets see what debt forgiveness we can secure in on what terms. Atb
Seems were in danger of losing its perspective once again Twix.
Although I agree that AR didn't rule out funding I don't think he said it was definitely required neither nor imminent nor significant. What he did say was that the stated revenue projections and sp target of Finncap would have to be changed imminently following the AGM, that the debt/equity deal agreed with TMO would clean up the balance sheet and write off debts in process as well as act as cash injection. The net effect of this would be that any further funding would be MINOR, if required, and would come in the NEXT financial year, and be via II's being issued equity directly. As a shareholder I have to be realistic and say that we may have been hoping much for the BoD to publicly commit to never ever undertaking another fundraising but we know at least that if this happens it will be much later on, at higher levels via IIs and would be to support the new 3 year growth plan still to be revealed. That said depending on the growth it could also not be required but at the least I can await till the new growth figures/strategy is issued.
The BoD are what they are. They've consistently called the wrong play when PIs were screaming at them to settle and now want to clear their name rather than go for the obvious play and a quick sale as Sequenom did after their high profile court loss. What's worse if you compare Judge Carr's readings to the RNS issued, media reports and backroom confidences they also had a deliberate policy of misinformation these last years. To support this failed legal strategy the balance sheet was wrecked in process. The constant false reports through back channels have mis-footed me to the detriment of my trading balance here so I share your frustration.
That all said I am hopeful if the strategy outlined in the video did happen that we should be at much higher sp in the next few weeks having (a) debt forgiveness; (b) circa 20% share ownership via TMO through exercise of warrants; (c) new oncology product being supplemented by year end with new reproductive product mentioned in video; (d) new trading statement leading to revised Finncap targets. Other potentials of new 3 year plan, NHS, new contracts will supply further momentum.
I think andy's point of debt forgiveness for the revision of exercisable price of said warrants is also correct FWIW. I think the full 95m shares will be exercised though with the 20,325,204 shares @ 24.6p having their exercisable price revised. I hope that the 74,946,134 shares don't have their exercisable price changed which should mean that the floor of 12p is established and potentially up to £4m of debt is forgiven. This should then give TMO a stake in the company to launch TO down the line or prevent a TO from a 3rd party. That all said I would still be surprised how with the Directors owning 30% of shares and TMO owning 20% how they could not be obligated to make an offer for the rest of company but I'm sure they wil
Yes, whoever said it (TW did and perhaps other attendee) mis-stated the facts and left us discussing how that could be. Now back to when will it be! Not surprised TW massaged the truth, but thought I'd heard it from an attendee who posted too. Might be wrong and perhaps just TW then.
Yes we were clearly misled by whoever said that. AR definitely did NOT say we would not require further funding. You can’t believe anyone.
No more funding come from TW bearcast! And we all know he talks shite. He also said that iona test could lead to poeple having terminations, and that bothers him, but hes still invested here. If he doesn't like people being offered a choice he should sell.
Andyken, Was it you who said AR had stated no more funding required? What I heard in presentation didn't match to that. More like further funding may be required, but possibly from ii/2 investors rather than placing. Not a clear statement at all though and imv further funds are more likely than not, given overall situation and track record??
My guess is that they write off some debt in exchange for adjustment in the exercise price of the warrants.
Also worth pointing out that if TF did exercise warrants this would see a cash inflow, rather than having to rely on a cash raise
No idea where 19m came from. Should have been 95m. Even that was unrealistic @ 24p I agree. 74m more realistic.
https://youtu.be/fZn-a9jfMoI
For me the salient points of the video was that if the debt/equity deal was agreed to with TMO, plus the revenue picks up (better than Finncap expects) and cost management improves then any further funding would be MINOR, if required, and would come in the NEXT financial year, and be via II's being issued equity directly. All in all that's the most realistic I think that could be expected that the BoD could publicly commit to but hopefully also draws a line under some PIs concerns and we can finally move on.
If TMO do agree to a partial warrant conversion I am not sure what the exercisable price would be but think it would cover the following warrants:
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77
If they only exercised these warrants this would give them 74,946,134 shares
I am presuming that TMO would not be wanting to exercise its warrants from Dec-15: 20,325,204 @ 24.6p. That all said I am not sure if TMO is able to exercise its warrants in a piece meal fashion or obligated to do it all in one go. This would then take us to back to 12p in short order.
Although the video suggested that a 3 year plan was to be targeted for release around the Half Year results (3rd Dec) it seems unlikely that this has not been prepared to be shared with TMO at a high-level as part of the debt for equity exchange. Whether this deal is brokered before the AGM who knows but the video did state that they hope to provide a trading update at the AGM after which Finncap would be expected to provide a revised research note and target price. In the last 2 years as Premaitha has already gone from Panmure Gordon to Finncap there seems no appetite to change broker as considered all as bad as eachother. Also with the 1st paragraph strategy the need going forward - and certainly for the foreseeable future - is reduced.
With the CEO (and assuming the new Group Commercial Director) in the US to broker the debt to equity conversion the hope is that this is announced by the AGM but who knows. I hope it is so that it can be reflected in time in Half Year results.
That all said I cannot understand why TMO would agree to a debt right-off rather than just make an offer at a depressed sp level. Partly because writing the debt off would not prevent a 3rd party stealing Premaitha from under them and leaving them short changed. So it would be better to exercise all warrants (including the ones at 24p) and then have a stronger blocking vote against a 3rd party offer.
The BoD's presentation seemed like they were looking ahead to grow the business with new product launches and I guess to also clear their name. With a presentation titled "Hand-cuffs off" this does not really chime with Finncap's assessment that the litigation resolution will only add 7% revenue growth in 2020E to £11.9 or a 4% revenue decline to £8.5m in 2019E. However let's see what happens during the course
Much to think about with quite a bit of information to peruse over, more so over the coming days. Can't say too much at the moment because I'm off out but there is one thing needed to be said that's an important factor to consider. TF's considerable holding of 19m shares, albeit in warrants, and the fact that they are small fry in comparison to Illumina in terms of platform market share, makes them IMV a prime candidate to bid for the company. Of course we don't know what promises were made to Illumina in order to achieve a settlement, however it does remain a firm possibility. Would be very nice in this years Xmas stocking.
Who knows, but that's what the man said.Lots of news coming up before xmas methinks..Need to see the vid again as usually miss bits first time around. No worries it seems with funding either if needed.
Why would Thermo Fisher write off some of the debt?
all said, it does feel to me that things are just beginning to get interesting.Things like doing a deal with Thermo over loans/warrants and two more significant II's wanting to get onboard, hmmm!
was Mr Little on a backhander from Thermo? Just think where we could be now going with Illumina from the start.He must have known the likelihood of litigation from Illumina but still went with Thermo, why??
begs the question, why did they not choose Illumina from the start? Two major feck ups by Mr Little, 1) chose the wrong partner 2) then tried to take them on in court..What a disaster this bloke has been as a ceo. Just glad they fecked him back into the labs..Just my opinion of course
My challenge to IR was also that with a Group Commercial Director (Hayden Jeffreys), Chief Commercial Officer (Nick Claxton) and Chief Business Officer ( Peter Collins) that the proposed revenue projections from Finncap are very pessimistic. If true then you don't need the BoD of that size. However I am still very sceptical of Finncap's report if you consider the new oncology product, proposed new NIPT products via Abnova, new markets (India/China) and new strategic opportunities via Illumina. But with 3 heavy hitters coming from big name pharma you should expect more.
In terms of AR's public comments well I hardly think TW would have stated it if it was not said, and AR said it in panic. If TW had misquoted AR you would have already heard about it already in his own discussion forums which are monitored.
I also think the emotive way this question was put just reflects how hysterical PIs have become over potentially circa £3m additional funding, if required, due to the handling of IR over the last month following the release of Finals and notification of placing. With conflicting reports, apparent backroom deals by Finncap with questionable projections etc. its been a horrid month which has wrecked havoc with the sp. Hopefully 'confirmed' revenue projections can be supplied to put things in perspective. However even with Finncap confirming cash in bank post current placing will be £1.7m next March and a target price of 16p our current sp still seems overtly negative even if additional funding is required. I think Florida said the additional funding comment was just in the Going Concern statement so let's see what next week brings with AR's clarification.
Hopefully other news beforehand
Interesting video presentation. Looking forward to this week
share prophets
fill in with *************