Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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FX, i understand, its not a straightforward thing and shows the 'one rule for us and one rule for them' approach that the market works to.
I guess it relies on the third party receiving the shares before the share sale is closed out. Usually when you buy or sell, whilst it shows straight away in your account it still takes a few days to clear.
So if the warrant holder says to the third party, 'ok you pay me 0.27p per share for my 35m shares and I'll exercise them (at 0.25p)'
The third party could go to the market on day 1, sell the shares at market price (say 0.29p), the warrant holder then exercises them on day two and transfers the shares straight to the third party, who then has the shares by day 3 when they have to close out their sells.
Purely my guess on how it works, so probably full off holes.
I agree with Soup, this looks to me like the pre-selling prior to the warrants being exercised. All sales above 0.25 are profitable for the warrant holder. Its would be good news for the company if that is the case as they raise £87,500.
You exit before placing.
That s the game.
The only thing to understand is that we’ve been scammed
Thanks for the explanation but I'm still not sure I understand it. Until the warrants are executed then surely they are not theirs to sell on to anyone?
FX, with forward selling the warrant holder will make a deal with a third party (broker) in advance of exercising the warrants.
Its like short selling, the warrant holder agrees to give the shares to the third party, so the third party sells the same amount in advance of receiving the actual shares.
Not sure what that means "forward selling the warrants"?
Are you saying that the unknown "institutional investor" has suddenly acquired 35m new shares and has immediately dumped 18m of them?
Shouldn't we see an RNS saying that the warrants have been taken if that is the case?
Hmmm... to big for Pi's.
My bet is its forward selling the 35m warrants if they are being exercised shortly.
....and dump!
Same old, same old
Indi***** yes :)
Glad you did not get too burnt on COPL. Yes hopefully NFX will eventually come good.
Hi Trans, I forget the name you used to post under "**investor". I dumped my COPL in early 2022, except for a v small holding which I dumped later. NFX I have stayed with & think there is a good chance it will come good.
Hi Jiving hope you don't mind if I ask what you did with COPL in the end? Did you sell or let it go bust?
Maybe one day NFX might rocket but I lost a lot of money on COPL, like a criminal amount.
Lesson learnt. (I hope...)
😍 wishing you well from this side of the pond.
To directly quote Dan on the additional work to NXP002.
"...with NXP002 we are now in a position where we don't have to do any new work that we haven't yet completed we're simply looking at increasing the sample size of data sets that we have so that we can make those data packages suitable for partners in the data and the statistics."
Differing views are exactly what a discussion forum should be all about FFX. I was also very unhappy about Dan's removal & things went downhill rapidly after that - not helped by Covid.
Small point, I think we are in an infinitely better place "..than....in summer 2022", I wish the intervening 3-4 years had never happened but we are where we are - it could have been worse!
I respect your view Jiving even though I don't necessarily agree with all of it.
I have no gripe with Julian or Maddy. They have stayed the course when all others faltered, even taking a cut in remuneration (which I hope they will be rewarded for at some point)
However, for me the critical event was Gooding resigning in 2020. I lost faith after that. That was catalyst for the downward spiral in my opinion and even though he's now back, we are still at rock bottom with only a recent increase of a fraction of a penny to give us hope the wind might be about to change. Nothing solid to back it up at all yet. No news on trial progress. Just whispers of talks (no different to the murmurs in the Allenby excerpt)
To say we are in an infinitely better place is not something I can agree with at all.
And a lot happened in those 3 years that no shareholders could have wanted or expected. The repeated management changes, the disappointing set of 002 results, the disastrous financing deal. The nadir was in the summer of 2022 when after Riddell's resignation we had no Chairman & nobody prepared to accept executive responsibility. At that stage you dont have a viable company, certainly not one that is going to be taken remotely seriously by big pharma's.
The critical event was Julian & Dan becoming Chairman & Executive Director and with Maddie trying to make the best of a bad job. Namely no internal lab, extremely meagre finances (& little chance of any new equity funds) and not yet enough test results covering key areas to have a minimally acceptable dataset to realistically approach licensing partners. So since then they have managed to produce that minimal dataset for 002 (& possibly 004) and from September have begun the key marketing process we have all been waiting for since re-listing. Its been a bumpy ride but we are in an infinitely better place than we were in summer 2022, & the 3 of them have frankly done a very good job to get us to this position given the circumstances.
" NFX anticipates that this milestone could be achieved within the next 18 months, but with multiple opportunities for licensing NXP002 prior to this. Prospects for an early-stage deal are good judging by precedent in the IPF space."
The key is in what you said yourself Jiving. That was 3 years ago! No mention of phase readiness deadlines these days. Last I heard they were looking to acquire samples for these essential trials. When was the last time Gooding mentioned how that was going.
All we've had is absolute guff.
From March 2021 so heading for 3 years old. Share price at publication was 2.4p & 592m shares then in issue post placing. No longer available at Allenby's but copy still here:
https://nuformix.com/app/uploads/2021/06/Allenby-Initiation-Note-March-2021.pdf
Couple of relevant para's on valuation:
NFX DCF valuation of 9p per share post funding. Our DCF valuation of NFX includes only NXP002 at this stage. Using a 13% WACC gives a risk adjusted valuation of £52.8m, equivalent to 9 pence per share, and this assumes that a Phase I ready package for NXP002 is in place. Subject to financing, NFX anticipates that this milestone could be achieved within the next 18 months, but with multiple opportunities for licensing NXP002 prior to this. Prospects for an early-stage deal are good judging by precedent in the IPF space.
For simplicity, we look at the value of the asset as if NFX were to market the product, rather than via a licensing deal, to illustrate its worth to potential licensees. Our valuation of NXP002 as a preclinical asset using a 13% WACC gives a risk adjusted valuation of NFX of £52.8m which is equivalent to 9 pence per share (based on 591.6m shares in issue post funding). This assumes that a Phase I ready package for the asset is in place which is being developed over the next 12-18 months, subject to funding. We illustrate the main assumptions regarding launch date, peak sales and pricing in each geography, using a 10% Likelihood of Approval for this programme alone.
If a shrewd trader was able to buy in on the bid a few weeks ago @0.28 & dump recently on the offer side around 0.42 it would have been 50%, but whatever the share seems to have settled in a different price trading area. Lansdown no longer regularly dumping shares into the market, at whatever price they could get, also obviously helps the market.
Actually there is a rational reason for an upward move, which was reflected in the last research report on the company where they assessed what the likely $ size of any 002 deal would be & then attached a probabilistic formula to NFX achieving that outcome & came up with a target price. Now we have officially entered the R&D stage & have begun licensing discussions on both main drugs we are closer to a deal (or not) than we were in say summer 2023, and were due a re-rate on that basis alone. If you consider the financial repercussions of 'any' deal of any size on either drug ,they would be many multiples of the current market cap.
Think it’s more of a relief rally based on the going concern statement, plus written confirmation of discussions underway.
Atm more like a 33% increase on the back of very little . Having sold last week I will be hoping that I get another opportunity. Will hold fire to see if there are any foundations to the current sp.
ATB
FFX if you wait for substance here you will be way too late
We have clearly left the 0.25-0.30 area we were stuck in for months. And it seems to be on the back of relatively small genuine investors, perhaps taking a position ahead of news anticipated in the first half. Also a noticeable absence of PnD folks. Ironically the Earl & Ria could have taken 50+% profits over a few weeks had they taken advantage of the move, without any need to post drivel 50 times a day.
I can only assume you don't hold any shares in nfx , any sane shareholder would be delighted to see a 40% increase in the sp. Each to their own
Where's the substance then Trombone? It's not the volume of buys, they are worth nothing. Nor is it any news, so what?
No substance = smoke & mirrors