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Hi CSDI and a Happy New Year!
Great minds think alike, and fools never differ! I took a starter in NG. too. As you say, a decent dividend and some chance of capital appreciation. Many moons ago I had to decide between CNA and NG. as an investment and plumped for ...CNA! Oh well! I am now away from here entirely, and when my cash arrives at the end of the month for my UCG I will be back to 30% cash again. Nothing strikes me as particularly cheap at the moment. I am considering MNZS, as the update yesterday was sound, but the prices seems to constantly slip back due to a seller. No divi at the mo, but a sound business that is benefitting from leaving the EU by way of air cargo handling, and which will come out the far side of the virus a leaner and more efficient company. I like CNC as well. A good wee business, and my brother formerly worked there. However the price has gotten away from me somewhat, and the spread is horrible. Have you deployed any more cash at all? I would very much like to develop another income stream. All the best A
Good afternoon A,
So much for being patient .. I have spent rest of NCYF proceeds with the IMB proceeds now.
Decided to go for a dull utility - to get a decent divi - so plumped for NG - buying at 865p.
NG yield not as good as NCYF or IMB, but am hoping the capital will at least retain in tact.
A nice divi of around 5.6% p.a should provide the steady income I want.
It would be nice if I could have a year where my capital does not get eroded. No point in big divis if the SP drops by same or more as has been the case here with NCYF.
I did think about a speculative punt with SYME but I don't understand that business well enough to throw my money at it.
So no doubt that will double in price next year, while NG bumbles along.
Take care and keep safe.
ATB for New Year etc
Look forward to chatting more next year - Cheers - CSDI
Good luck for the New Year!
I hold RDSB for the divi, and would add if there is another flap. Jim Slater has said he expects to see increased takeover activity this coming year, so IMB may be a hold on those grounds. I have spent 5% of my cash taking tiny holdings in quite speculative numbers (inc VLG and SIG) but I will hold my fire for now. To be honest I would love to increase my holdings in Prefs, but they are all at wild prices. That is, I think, a sign of underlying uncertainty. Hold on tight!
Hi again A,
Quick update on my p/f (copied from gen chat forum with S-i-d-i):
Also decided to spend some of my NCYF money - putting 2/3 towards SUPR as happy to hold that for the divi. Even if market drops with covid news, should be quite resilient as the big supermarkets carry on regardless.
Also decided to top slice my latest batch of IMB - sold at 1565p today, against purchase at 1378p on 1st December. Made a net profit of 11% after dealing costs and stamp duty - so effectively treated as a trade batch rather than LTH batch.
Still trying to work out whether to sell my one profit making batch on RDSB or keep hold for the long run.
Priority should be trim to IMB first as still got 24% of my p/f in that one.
so still got about 7% in cash - just need to decide what to spend that on next.
P/F having poor day now - down nearly 1% - while FTSE only down a bit. Hey Ho. Nothing new then
Cheers - CSDI
Hi A,
Scary stuff if I am influencing you. Remember my name is C S D I.
Not decided what to do with my proceeds which are approx 9% of my p/f.
I am still 90% invested - mainly in blue chips - AV, GSK, IMB, RDSB and VOD. All decent divis but risk to the capital.
From my stats history records Jan is normally one of the better months, but history means nothing with shares, especially with CV19 hanging around. Can't believe GSK is down approx 25% over 12 months, but there you go.
Good luck and please don't blame me if NCYF takes off now ...
Cheers - CSDI
Hi again CSDI
I actually sold half my holding yesterday, taking advantage of that rise. You have well and truly put the willies up me regarding this! And I have definitely added to my own paranoia by being forced to put my thoughts down on this screen. It was a loss, but a small one.
With other events over the day I am now 30% cash, a very unusual situation for me. I would need to place two thirds of this for income, so I will be keeping my eyes open, and hoping for a general market decline. Good luck my friend.
A
Hi Andsoforth,
I have just sold out at 51.04p - surprised and pleased at jump from 49.26p a couple of hours ago !
Now to decide whether to add SUPR or maybe keep cash in hand to see what happens with next NCYF divi announcment.
Good luck to you and I suspect that NCYF may go on a bit of a roll now - as I have a natural ability to sell just before shares fly high, hence the CSDI - Crap Share Dealing Ideas
Cheers - CSDI
Yes thanks - currently 49.26 to sell with Stocktrade (my Scot Widows pension platform).
It was 49.06 when I posted earlier.
A rise of 2% in selling price would half my loss (net with 2 years divis included).
Let's see if I can get to 50p today
Cheers - CSDI
Have you tried a dummy buy and sell before spreading the gloom ? You will find it is actually 49.9 to buy and 49.3 to sell.
Hi A,
The spread at the mo is 49-51.2p is over 4%, so not happy with that.
Let's see if I can get a better exit price during this week.
Notice that SUPR divi announced 8th Jan last year, with NCYF on 16th Jan. Both pay divis in Feb normally.
A shame NCYF not announced first as would give better indication.
We shall have to wait and see what fund boss "Franco" says in next report for November. Last report was for Oct.
You seem to have more patience than me, which is probably the sign of a "better investor" as I may be a bit too trigger-happy.
Cheers - CSDI
I hate to take a loss, and that has been my downfall all too often. But I will stick around here for a little bit longer, perhaps more in hope than expectation!
Hi again A,
Gosh - I think we are sending each other into a Bear-like depression here. A drop down to 40p would be another 20% from here and that is a lot of divis to make up. It is not unusual for me to "accept a loss" as it may well be better to choose my own (or your own) level at which to escape. Sitting on a net 4% loss, gives me every chance of recovery, but it is much harder with only 80% of the original capital invested. I am now thinking of a much bigger or entire sale of NCYF and sit in SUPR until the scale of the damage is known. It (NCYF) only needs about 2p rise to get to break even for me, but looking at SUPR has 12-month support around current 105p level is more likley to grow 5% than NCYF. So yes I've talked myself into selling up now. Just need to decide whether to put all in SUPR or split with ASEI or HHI which have over 6% yield. At the mo I have 17% of my p/f in trusts/funds with NCYF, ASEI, HHI with NCYF having the lion's share of 9%. I would prefer my trusts/funds to be in range of 20-25% of p/f and that can be fixed when I slice off some GSK (19%), IMB (28%) or RDSB (13%) in due course. It is prob easiest just to swap NCYF for SUPR and then top up ASEI or HHI when top slcing the others. Ceratinly gone too heavy on IMB but trying to recover a big loss on first purchase at £29 before averaging down several times.
Enough of my mumbling ... decision made ... to sell NCYF and buy SUPR.
There may be lots of other moves tomorrow following long weekend after Brexit, but will stick with my funds allocation.
Cheers - CSDI
Hi again CSDI
I can see the price here falling to a previous low. In 2009 it hit 37, and in this year's flap the lowest close was 27. It could see sub 40 then. As you say, that is a healthy loss, and hard to recover. You are making me think again about this!
I must admit I like SUPR. I was sceptical when it started, but they have built a good portfolio in what has proved to be a resilient sector. Having said that, property has burned me before, and may well do again.
A few years back I read an article by a guy who had spent forty years investing, and had only ever bought shares in insurance firms. He reckoned he had had an annual return in excess of 12%. Maybe we should look in this direction?
Hi Andsoforth,
When the SP falls or divi cut announced here, I'm looking to move part (approx 1/3) into SUPR - looks like a reasonably safe 5% divi based on Big Supermarkets paying their rents. Would be disappointed if SP fell far on SUPR. Means lower yield that NCYF, but better chance of retaining capital me thinks. I will leave the other 2/3 in here.
Cheers - CSDI
Hi again A,
"We must see a further price drop here etc" - cannot disagree with you but how far will it drop ?
I am already down almost 20% on my capital (buying at 61.5, current 49.5) with the divis covering a good chunk of the loss.
Another drop from here would mean another year or two divis to be wasted. Little point in holding a share that drops more in value each year than the divi as it simply erodes your overall valuation. Obviously any new additions to the fund will be at lower interet rates than those due to expire. Is this just one to tuck away for another 10 years by which time the divis may give us a real profit. Who knows where interest rates might be in 2030. No one predicted correctly in 2007 that we would see 12 years ahead at lower than 1% LOL.
While I am tempted to try and be clever to sell and buy back, my history tells me that if I sell the SP will rise, and if I hold/buy the SP will fall. So for now it is time to sit on the fence and keep praying LOL.
As you say, if we hold long enough it all become irrelevant ...... hopefully !
Cheers - CSDI
Hi again CSDI
Thank you for your kind comments, and I hope the holidays have been kind to you. I am afraid my crises will never end!!
I like IMB and formerly held. I sold out too early, largely only selling because I increased my BATS holding. I can see IMB being taken over in the next year or two, perhaps by Scandanavian.
I looked at VIN, but they seem to hold a lot of properties that may struggle. There is a holiday park, and pubs and hotels in there. That one is not for me. I sold SWEF recently on the same grounds.
We must see a further price drop here at NCYF, but I hope to hold long enough for this to become irrelevant. It will either rise again, or I will recoup my losses in dividends.
All the best
A
Hi Andsoforth
Hope domestic crises have been resolved !
Thanks for your notes. Given me some ideas for future reference there. I am looking at VIN - Value & Income which is about to move out of equities in favour of commercial property. This would give me a nice yield with an extra bit of diversification.
I did have INTU myself when it paid divis, but got out before collapse. Also done well with HMSO early this year before the splits and share restructure. At the moment not holding banks or property shares as do not like prospects, but this may change if CV-19 gets controlled properly.
In my list of shares I mentioned GSK twice in error, and should hsve mentioned IMB which is my biggest holding at approx 27% of my pension, yielding close to 9% now. My orig purchase in Jan 2018 was at £29 when divi was approx £1.70 p.a. I've since added 7 times, selling 1 batch. Got big holding at average cost 1799p currently, having received about £1.50 per share in divis to date incl 48p due 31/12. You have BATS which may be a better choice than mine !
With NCYF I like the divi, and expect it to be cut. Just hope it does not damage the SP too much when it is inevitably cut. This is one fund that seems to trade at a premium to its SP, whereas my other funds trade at quite big discounts. My average cost is 61.5p and had about 9p in divis so far, so about 3p or 5% down in net terms.
Fingers crossed we do not lose too much value when divi is cut.
All the best for Xmas
Cheers - CSDI
Apologies again. Regarding NCYF directly, I think the dividend may well be halved, but that will still leave a yield of nearly 5%: quite respectable. More importantly it will raise the cover and make the payout sustainable. I intend to sit tight, as my holding is small (1% of portfolio), and I am here for the long haul. If I see a startling opportunity elsewhere I will go, but at the moment they may be few and far between.
Hi CSDI
Apologies for the tardy reply. Domestic crises have emerged here! I have my portfolio divided into two: half in growth and half for income. I actually dumped all my funds a few years back, except this one, and split my income money between equities and preference shares. I got really stung by having too much in REITs, notably INTU! My income now comes from NTEA, RSAB, AV., RDSB, BATS, BBOX, REC, LLOY (whoops!), HICL, CNA (double whoops!), BARC, LGEN and NG.. These are given in size order, from largest down. I have an eye on GSK and CEY. Moving out of funds arguably has more risks, but also presents more opportunities.
I think any debt fund may be struggling in the short to medium term, as may any offeror of credit. That includes SUS and all the sub-prime lenders, who could be in for a very hard time. Sorry not to be much help.
(Given the economic climate, is BEG of any interest? I took a tiny amount of these a few weeks back).
All the best
A
Hello Andsoforth,
Yes agree with you. The divi will have to be cut in due course as maturing loans cannot be replaced at same high rates. I don't want to be left holding the baby if the divi cut sends the SP down a long way. Having said that the SP is already down 15% from last year's average say 57p. Wonder if it is safer to take a small loss and find another fund with similar high interest securities, where the divi is lower but more secure. I have held CMHY in the past which has lower yield around 5.5%.
Next divi announcment for NCYF due mid January - can we hold at 1p per qtr again ?
Do you hold other funds which are worth me looking at ?
My p/f is mainly high yield shares - AV, ASEI, CEY, GSK, NCYF, GSK, HHI, PDG, RDSB, VOD.
Full details of my p/f can be found on the general chat boards.
Cheers - CSDI
The debt default rate is not a problem. The interest rates set are high enough to cover this. More importantly their current income stream from high interest loans needs to be renewed as the exist loans mature. This will be difficult in what may well be an extended low interest rate period. The RNS of 20 March and the QuotedData note of 30 June both suggest we will see a reduction in yield to allow greater coverage.
I hold here under almost identical conditions to you, and will continue to hold for now. However, a cut is coming and a further reduction in price will follow.
I have held this share for about 2 yrs now and have invested 9% of my SIPP in here at average cost of 61.5p. So I am well down on the capital side about 20%, but have picked up over 10p in quarterly divis on my original purchase and 5p on my 2nd purchase. In total I am down just over 5% currently and feeling a little more confident now we have a vaccine in progress. The yield is around 9.1% at the moment, which must be under pressure. The fund manager has indicated this may have to be reduced. The SP moves very slowly and may not get back to the 60p plus level that I first paid, but I would be satisfied if the SP stayed flat for another 12 months, with another 4.46p dividend, payable 3 x 1p and 1@ 1.46p.
Any opinions out there on whether this fund can avoid bad debts/loan write offs and whether the current divi can be maintained.
Cheers - CSDI
well, that little spurt got you up to 100 posts.... Good Day !
Another good day at the office
Hi Mr Solo, they publish their Fact sheet and there's often a comment about what they've been buying. I think one of the last I saw was a recent purchase of Punch Taverns, Punch Taverns 7.75% 2025. When I last bough it, it's notes, in August the yield was over 10%. What is less easy to see if the small additional purches that Franco makes. For example, one of the bonds he's keen on is Matalan. I bought some this last week with a YTM of 30%. If you look on NCYF site, Sitting Pretty https://ncim.co.uk/sitting-pretty/ they talk about Matalan in detail. So, it may not just be the case that he's swapping high coupons for lower, but he may also add running yield and yield to maturity to the portfolio. There's still plenty of options around. Again, by example, the August Fact Sheet "The only transactions during the month was to roll the Navigator Holdings 7 3/4% 2021 bond into the replacement bond of 8% with a date of 10th September 2025." Coupons aren't all going in the same direction. Along the way he's also going to be picking up consent payment, and bonds that are being called for maturity that will be paying him accumulated coupons and sometimes premiums to par! I have one been matured at the moment, that I bought at sub par, paying 101% of par plus consent payment 0.5% and accumualted coupon.
Just for fun, myself managed portfolio has YTM of almost 70% - not that I'm expecting that.
I'm not sure which direction the shre price is going, hence a toe hold purchase and them monthly buy, but I am confident he could build a high yield diversified portfolio with a decent total return - but that does, in my opinion, come with more risk.