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Kooba
I think the LOAM TR-1 notice when it arrives shirtly adter 25th April will shock readers by how much they have reduced their 14.5% holding I suspect down to under 9%.
Kooba, we are both right. I was careful to quote verbatim "up to" 21m shares. I expect it is more likely to be between 10m and 15m.
The average daily volume of Nanoco Group PLC shares traded, based on a rolling last 30 days, is 431.8k shares.
The average daily volume of Nanoco Group PLC shares traded, based on a rolling last 30 days, is 431.8k shares.
Source researchtree
In terms of the buyback the amount that can be purchased is relative to the amount being paid. There is authority for an amount but there is also a limit on cash available.
So ..” the company to buy up to 21m shares today” ….is not the case at 21.5p the company could only buy 14m shares in total…to buy 21m shares with £3m would require a purchase price of nearer 14p..which is a bit off the mark right now. Worth watching volumes short term . Also it is unclear when we might find out if any changes in major holdings but should be notified this week i guess we might find out if any oversubscribed and maybe if some below threshold didn’t subscribe at all and there should be official confirmation of PDMR dealings imminently.
404x, ouch! Maybe I misread your post. You mentioned a freeze on non-tendered shares. I didn't notice there had been one.
Trading volumes are in line with normal trends. There is no ‘support’.
Xenon you've shown yourself to be a bit of an idiot there. Everything I stated was factual, there were no opinions there so it's absurd you trying to disagree.
What do you mean they are “being down 69%”?
404x, there was never a freeze on non-tendered shares. If you think share price support is a unique day today that will require the company to buy up to 21m shares today..
NGR1616
Your speculating they want to trade and buy back while the fact of the matter is that they are being down 69% that is a fact not speculation!..one is an option which is 'yours' the other genuine 'fact'!
We’ve discussed ex dividend pricing before and it doesn’t take effect until the dividend is transacted. I don’t see any difference here. No shares or monies have been bought cancelled or paid off
LOAM either want to exit, or they see an opportunity to trade.
Assuming the latter, they tender as much as they can at 24p and whilst everyone is locked in without funds returned until the 25th of April they start buying at anything below 24p which would represent a profit assuming they are liquid enough to do so and that they dont want to exit.
the buy backs will not be more than the average days trading so will take at least 21 days to complete I believe
NGR1616
That holds no reality as instutional investor's see no ramping up of production and hence revenues for a very long period if at all otherwise why sell up 69% of their holdings?
LOAM is closer to the truth of the matter and I expect to see their 14.5% holding decline by 30% to under 10% following the buy back in the coming weeks!
NGR, I wasn't expecting the price would change materially on 8th April any more than I am expecting it to change materially tomorrow. If it had been a divi I would have known it would materially change. Ultimately the company will have less cash, but there are fewer shares in issue - so nearer to parity (give or take a % for those trading the shares).
TG2D I don't understand why you keep going on about commercial deals....the deal is in place.
It's a frame agreement / contract that agrees terms for the supply of material in receipt of a PO. STM have indicated they see a runway of increased demand and Nanoco expect to see more PO's to the point that they reach BE at some point in FY25.
The only announcement I expect is the confirmation of a third chemical company and possibly something left field on display.
The high take up 69% implies that there will be no material commercial deals to be signed with either STM or anyone else for sometime which now given the annual cash burn of up to £4.8m implies that a deal between £7m and £10m needed to be completed this year in order to reach cash breakeven next year looks highly unlikely to be realised.
The high take up implies the instutional investor's don't belive the share price will exceed 24p for sometime but equally don't see any commercial deals in the immediate pipeline for sometime otherwise why sell up.
Ergo the Board guidance of cash breakeven being reached next year is out of kilter with what instutional investor's are saying through their support to return more than 38.5% of their share entitlements under the buy back scheme.
It seems that BT and the Board are misguiding, misinforming and misleading the market with their 'expectations' yet again!
Ngr ..the theory the share price was mostly supported by cash ..was not a theory it was demonstrated by months and months of trading at around the cash postion. The cash position post the fully subscribed tender is £26m ( pre on market buyback) with 200m shares outstanding so the cash has fallen to 13p per share. If the market suddenly decides that the organic business is worth more for no obvious reason then the tender a balance sheet event will have given the operational side a rerate..nice work for no news..but I believe that was all part of the plan. Will it work??
Fwiw shareholders tendering full entitlement are currently unable to trade even proportion we now know won't be tendered. That's if my account's anything to go by. Presumably this freeze lifts on remaining non-tendered shares after Cavendish buy the allocation tomorrow.
So share support price wise today is a somewhat unique day, in that both buyback is taking place, but those looking to sell over tender takeup are temporarily unable to do so.
Kooba, you say many thought the subscription would not be fully subscribed. I presumed it would be - free money is a strong lure...
Xenon so why didn’t the price change on 8th April?
I questioned the FD about timing of the buyback relative to the parameters set a GM ..ie a basis around average over 5 trading days after he confirmed that the buyback could start yesterday..i also asked a few very reasonable questions around forecasts in edison and Cavendish approved research ..haven’t heard back. So i see the buyback starts today and will be based around pre settlement averages..dopey imo.
There’s are genuine questions by the way and not a dig
All day trying to predict the future !
Those that get it all wrong will become embittered and those that didn't will tell them where they went wrong.
Hindsight is always a wonderful thing - Only time will tell Lol.
Kooba you are the one who has supported the theory the SP is mostly based on the cash position which is a function of shares in issue.
Today the register is unchanged. The suggestion is the share price should reflect the position post entitlement today. So what happens if to the SP in that case tomorrow when the shares are bought for £30m and 125m are cancelled. You suggest nothing will happen.
You also suggested the SP would drop to around 17p so why is it still broadly speaking exactly the same?
If someone says they are going to punch you in the face tomorrow. You don’t sit and wait for the punch to land.
Much in the same way, with news of the tender now out, expect any price adjustments to happen now, I’d suggest…