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Oversubscribed then..must think the big boys subscribed fully or subscribed over the 38.5%?
“In total, 160,535,377 Ordinary Shares, being approximately 49.5 per cent. of the Issued Share Capital were validly tendered under the Tender Offer as at 6:00 p.m. on 9 April 2024 (the "Record Date"), meaning that the Tender Offer was oversubscribed. Tenders will therefore be accepted in full from Shareholders who validly tendered a number of Ordinary Shares equal to or less than their Basic Entitlement or those holders of 2,000 Ordinary Shares or less, irrespective of the proportion tendered. Following a scale back exercise, tenders in excess of the Basic Entitlement will be satisfied to the extent of the Basic Entitlement plus approximately 49.6 per cent. of the excess Shares tendered.”
To be fair the mechanism might have suited the larger shareholders consulted but all shareholders ( save the sub 2000 share owners ) have been treated the same and have the same opportunity to participate or not. There maybe some benefit to larger holders if the company start the share buyback immediately as some holders will not be able to deal in their shares or have the money paid out to try to buy back in the market at lower levels. I think from what BT said ..a special dividend would come off the price penny for penny that a major aim here was to get the valuation up through stealth ..since they do not need funding it seems a vanity exercise as much as anything..you want the price up demonstrate commerciality. Anyway lets see if it works, so far yes to a certain extent as the EV has effectively jumped but see what happens in the next week or so.
If the tender was designed to benefit large shareholders at the expense of smaller ones i.e. deliberate exploitation or an abuse of power, how could it ever be proved ?
The only thing we can count on is uncertainty but one thing is certain, its always the poor that gets the blame !
Good post..see what we can garner from subscription level…might not be much initially but a full subscription would certainly indicate that the larger holders have subscribed at least the 38.5%. Wonder what breakdown they give ? Certainly will have to announce what folks that oversubscribed got which will show the level of participation in the standard offer. Some number crunching will be in order!
Uncertainty. Yes.
If the tender is under-subscribed it doesn't seem unreasonable to expect the shares to start trading at around 24p. If fully subscribed, there might be an immediate drop to reflect the the new cash value (although who will be selling in volume) but I suspect the real changes in SP are going to happen when it emerges which way the big holders (basically LOAM) have gone. Rightly or wrongly, I think their participation/non-participation in the tender will be interpreted as no-confidence/confidence in future potential and the SP will adjust accordingly. If they have participated (and quite possibly at much more than 38.5% of holding if PIs have been put off by the low tender offer / recent campaign of "good news") the next guess will be whether they are genuinely trying to exit or simply drive the price down to buy back in later.
Unfortunately, I don't think we will find out much tomorrow other than the level of uptake. It isn't clear to me whether major holders are required to issue TR-1 notices in connection with the tender, particularly if their percentage holding doesn't change.
What's happened has happened, but for me this was the most negative aspect of the way the tender was structured - it seemed almost designed to create uncertainty for PIs that can be exploited by large holders.
I’m surprised the SP hasn’t gone down more to reflect the likely reduction in cash in the business. I guess there’s uncertainty over the uptake of the tender offer, and some larger holders may decline to take part to increase their holdings after shares are cancelled.
I believe they’re due to announce tender results tomorrow, so we may see an ‘XD’ style adjustment then.
I’m hoping for a price of well under 20p (as low as possible obs), and will start buying again if that happens.