Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I do struggle to see how the company is going to get sufficient interest to purchase 38.5% of its stock at 24p.
I think they've set the figure far too low, even if the ii's like LOAM pitch in with their full holding, that still represents less than half the amount they want to clear.
Kooba: "..they could tender their whole holding. Certainly there will have been thought in where the tender is pitched perhaps at a level where many of the pi’s holding are not tempted"
Exactly the scenario that has been worrying me about this situation particularly given that, as you say, the tender offer has been priced at a level that seems to have left a lot of PIs ambivalent, to say the least. LOAM and the other big holders could easily exit completely if take-up among PIs is low. A simple dividend wasn't without downsides but would have been so much more transparent than this.
Maybe he'll tell us all how many he's sold.
Ngr
I see what you did there maybe a good idea to have some optionality depending on the likely adjustment post entitlement.
Be interesting if there is anything that meaningful with the interims next week that further changes folks view of the short term and long term expectation.
Toublesome go burry yourself
Go and adapt your strategy in privacy - multi-faced pilloock.
I thought the mere suggestion that Loam had inside info was considered ouitrageous by some ( including NGR) regards the settlement. Now it seems their actions speak louder than their words.
Where's all the confidence gone ?
You could attack this from every angle and we still wouldn’t know until afterwards.
If LOAM are inside as many claim then one of two things will happen - they’ll participate and exit or they’ll participate and reposition for future gains.
Personally I’ve adapted my strategy and sold a portion of my holding yesterday in order to not be illiquid post tender.
IDL70 think you have to believe that LOAM had a say in the mechanism and level..NB Turcan ,, “He has been advising and investing in UK smaller companies for over 20 years and has extensive experience in assisting public companies in creating value for all stakeholders.”
I think it has been shown they hold much influence over the board and as the largest holder i would imagine that the tender idea comes from their camp..i pointed out for a while that from past experience LOAM would favour a premium tender ..i think it is unlikely they will not participate..as to the amount they tender , that might be debatable..they could tender their whole holding. Certainly there will have been thought in where the tender is pitched perhaps at a level where many of the pi’s holding are not tempted,,meaning other large shareholders can get more away.Just possibilities!
Self Survival ! - more like Self-Serving.
Sheer Greed IMO
The only one certainty within this scenario is that it was designed with the director's best interests in mind. If we start from this premise, we are more likely to anticipate the subsequent outcome. Ever since the ridiculous Samsung settlement it has been self-survival mode for the lot of them.
It's a very difficult one to call. In my view, the post-tender changes to valuation that matter are going to take place once the participation, or not, of the major investors and IIs in the tender is known. If the likes of LOAM hold on to what they've got it'll be seen as a vote of confidence. If they've treated the tender as a rare liquidity event that allows them to substantially reduce their holding the SP could tank. Problem is, I don't think we'll know either way until the dust settles on 25th when payments are made.
It's frustrating that what could have been a simple distribution with fairly predictable consequences (albeit including a drop in share price) via a dividend has become a guessing game for PIs trying to figure out how they might get stiffed.
H57
Did it involve some cocoa tins and a ball of string?
I tried making my own iPhone and that was a disaster so I’m not surprised Apple gave up on something much smaller
Full news not out yet but i thought this could have been an area of interest for Nanoco products.
@Kooba
Good advice.
Troublesome anything I post is an opinion based on facts available ..nothing I post should ever be taken as advise and I try not to post as if it is. As mentioned before, individuals situations vary as do their risk profiles so people should make decisions based on their own circumstances.
Personally I wouldn't advise or try to persuade anyone what to do with their investment here.
I would say the circumstances are completely different to the settlement.
We know everything here it’s a corporate action there are facts…on litigation we knew nothing then there was just poor guidance and secrecy for most.
Thanks for trying to assure me of something ..you cannot know . Appreciated.
We tried getting our crystal balls out last year and look where that got everybody.
Now everyone seems to have the magic formula to game the tender offer. Take the tender or no, according to your preference, fine.
But let me assure you the market’s efficiency will ensure you probably don’t stand to gain much from trying to trade this. Folks like LOAM will be many steps ahead of you and before you know it the clever plan to extract 20% is in tatters.
Folk are trying to apply a handful of known variables to a situation with many unknowns. It cost us with the Samsung settlement and I feel some folk are just starting all over again with the magical free shares train post tender. It’s myopic and over simplistic. But hey, to each their own.
It's a tricky one.
At the moment the business is valued at little more than cash.
The cash value post tender offer and buy back will be £0.12 per share (£23m in cash, divided by 192,007,639 shares = 11.98 PPS)
How much will be added for the business is the question?
Without thinking about the situation post event how can you make a decision about what to do in a corporate action itself.
Concerning that one might not consider the consequences in a decision making process.
Maybe consider not taking advantage of a major liquidity event at 24p and the price does actually come back to 17p where you could replace stock 29% lower than you just sold some ..or just taking an exit for part of your holding at a level not seen for many months.not sure how folk would feel is they dismissed that opportunity without thought.
I wouldn’t be alarmed at other peoples opinions or actions ..not sure how it impacts others.
It’s slightly alarming to hear that some intend to trade the drop. If this share has taught us anything it’s that most of the time, what actually comes to pass is none of what has been discussed on these boards. Now many times people need to learn that, to their cost, I don’t know, but the likelihood is history will repeat itself and something no one thought of will happen.
By all means if folk want to take the tender or not, but trying to predict what will happen post buy back with a view to trading seems a fools errand IMO.
Ginodog things only get factored in once the ability to participate or receive benefits has gone.
Even though people know a share is going ex dividend it is not factored in until the shares trade ex the entitlement..i expect the same here.
The £3m on market buy back might help stabilise the price i guess but unclear when they might exercise that authority..knowing Nanoco it will not be quick ..unless LOAM realise that many small holders will not be able to sell for a significant period after 9th and want to get more away !!