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Shaxe. Yes sorry about the auto-correct - stubbornly in action again. The $10m I calculated was not especially optimistic although it is particularly difficult to work out what the interest charge will be. We shall see - this will be a useful base year. They have not indicated there will be any more build this year. However, they are a bit erratic on timings. They said at the half year they would get to 1GW of wind in mid 2017 and six weeks later announced they were already there. Although good news that disconnect worried me a bit. Similarly on solar they seem to be indicating it is a while off (late next year at earliest is the sense) but on quite a bit of it they seem relatively advanced. Once you have got the PPA, land and equipment I think it is a matter of a couple of months to install. So may be much earlier than indicated that we get first solar. As you say, solar will balance out generation. However, I am less sure about profitability. Because solar is much easier engineering wise than wind I think the state auctions for contracts have been very competitive with a lot of chancers pitching very low and likely to go bust if they have won the contract. May in time offer a consolidation opportunity for the stronger IPPs.
Hounddog, I like that my name autocorrects to share, how apt! Good point regarding the monsoon season, although they are building quite a few solar farms as well, which will obviously not be performing as well during that period. Heavily skewed towards wind, and I do like the solar as a way of keeping the output up whilst the wind is in low season. I guess also we will see how our consolidation of debt into one easy monthly repayment, (wonder which one of the adverts they rang up to sort that!) will affect profit, got to be a saving there (or why bother doing it?!) I think $10m is a touch hopeful, but knowing how quick they are building it wouldn't surprise me if we had 25% extra capacity than planned by the end of the year, so it may be that high. Agree with the self financing part, which is why I am invested now, this isn't a 10% in a month profit share, this is a buy it now, stick it in a draw and leave it for 5 years, top up when you can. Although it will be interesting to see if they do what the companies are doing over here: building, running for a couple of years, sell to an investment trust to take quick profit to build the next one. in which case SP may rise sooner.
I don't take the share price too seriously at the moment - too little volume and their results are too difficult to interpret. Take it as a buying opportunity. I agree the downside risk seems rather limited - particularly if they do make about $10m or so this year.
Share. Thank you for your debut post. I agree next year will probably be their year as they will go in with 1GW. However, I am expecting about $10m profit for the second half (could be more). Compared to the first half I think revenue will go up by $20m (monsoon heavily skewed to second half plus extra capacity) offset by $10m of extra costs. This is mainly interest. Depreciation is over 25-50 years so release of new capacity does not make much of a dent. They are beginning to throw off a lot of cash - $45m in first half (although about $30m went to finance debtors - but because of the ramp up the extent of that is a bit of a one off). In a couple of years they will be more or less self financing.
Disappointed to see the price drop at lunch time due to automatic trade sales. The SP is now at the same as it was when it bottomed on 19 June - 46p. There is also the support level at 42p so here's hoping it recovers from here. As last posted, potential 60p in next 2/3 months if the support holds.
I notice that since the beginning of the year when the SP bottomed at 42p, the share price has been in a gradual uptrend with peaks in April and August, the last at 60.5p. The SP seems to have bottomed twice on 23 September and 28 October at 47/48p and we could be in for a rise back up towards 60p in the next 2/3 months. IMHO there does not appear to be much downside risk and now may therefore be a good time to buy. I did buy recently at 49.5p and have profited from Mytrah before by managing to buy low. No guarantees of course.
Hounddog, Long time lurker, first time poster as most of the ones I am in have hundreds of posts a day so don't see much I can add to them, this one however...! I personally think the profits for the second half will be similar to the first half, nothing spectacular due to the continuing rapid expansion of the portfolio, but still a profit. I think the profits for the latter part of next year will be more telling as we will be earning from all the sites commissioned this year. It all depends on how much they want to expand and at what rate, they will have to slow down at some point due to racking up the debt, but they are making hay (electricity) whilst the sun shines at the moment.
Coee- anyone out there? Any thoughts as to profits for the second half?
Video interview with Mytrah Energy executive vice president Bob Smith http://tinyurl.com/jmwyzhw Mytrah Energy (LON:MYT) executive vice president, Bob Smith, believes that the power producer is “setting a standard for the industry” with its recent debt refinancing package. The company has negotiated a deal with three banks to replace loans that were with 22 banks, a transaction he says is “a real reflection of the growing maturity” of Mytrah. Smith also states that the variable winds that affected the firm’s performance last year were a “one-off”, and is “very confident that that’s not an indication of the future”.
i see good times ahead for this company, I've got property in Hyderabad and spend a lot of time there (when not in Birmingham!) and this company is going places, will be investing for sure, time to bite the bullet
It s good news.
In three decades of stock picking, I have rarely come across a company as exciting as Hyderabad-based Mytrah Energy Limited. If you haven’t heard of it, this is possibly because the company works anonymously from Gachibowli, is unlisted, engages business-to-business and keeps a low profile. Its chairman sits in London (so never shows up for local photo ops). Mytrah Energy is a corporate watcher’s orgasm. One, the company, engaged in wind energy generation, has achieved what most doubters said would never happen in their lifetimes. The cost at which it generates power is at par with the cost achieved by thermal energy generators. Yes, at par. Two, for every 1,000 megawatt (Mw) the company might generate, the prevailing industry dynamics indicate free cash generation of around Rs 400 crore (after debt servicing, debt repayment and overheads). That the company will invest in additional capacity is what any fool can conclude; the difference is that Mytrah adds three times the debt to its free cash, making it possible to invest Rs 1,600 crore yearly in fresh capacity (220 Mw approximately) without disturbing its desired gearing. This means Mytrah can potentially generate more cash each year, translating into even larger capacities. Three, Mytrah generates a higher internal rate of return than most wind energy companies. Most wind energy companies elect to buy turbines from manufacturers which provide the land and a multi-year wind pattern reading. Mytrah’s pro-active investment in wind masts (one of the largest deployments in the country) has already generated multi-year insights into locational characteristics, inspiring proactive investments in land plots and a freedom to go with a turbine manufacturer providing the highest price-value proposition. This value chain — wind masts to power purchase agreements — is one of the most extensive in India’s wind energy sector, translating into possibly the highest margins here. Four, a fusion of canny financial structuring and entrepreneurial foresight makes big things happen. Mytrah’s non-dilutive mezzanine financing ($120 million) within a year of commissioning is now not only an industry benchmark; all the company’s 543-Mw capacity creation (till date) has been woven around this original equity structure, one of the most efficient balance sheet optimisation instances within its sector. Five, it would have been safe for Mytrah to invest in an established location. The company has instead extended across 10 project sites in six states, working with 26 senior lenders and three turbine manufacturers. What would otherwise have been a project-centric approach has evolved into a consolidated multi-state, multi-location, multi-lender and multi-vendor portfolio. This dispersed portfolio has helped transform uncertainty (wind patterns) into one of the lowest counter-party risks in India’s renewable energy industry. The result is that Mytra
I think this will be one of the growth stocks for the next 5 years. I expect this will rise strong on a middle term basis.
does anyone know why there is such a high share turnover today, the share selling volume in particular. are the company about to report results, or is it just the mm's playing usual games.
Should be close to doubling capacity over the coming few weeks. Anybody holding hear and know if they are any further with the Singapore listing?