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Https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/metals-exploration-aimmtl-acquisitive-cash-generative-gold-junior-4935
Explained by Darren Bowden in February 2024
Morning
$2126 for one once of gold on the spot market. This company is in mature production with a well understood working mine that has approximately 4 years of production left.
What goes up must come down (and then go back up again), that's the price you pay when holding AIM shares that suddenly become visible to market makers and institutional investors. They simply hedge their positions and play it up and down ensuring they profit either way.
This isn't an explorer looking for a strike upon which to begin financing an expensive mine construction. It's a producer throwing off cash while eyeing up additional assets in the same country where they already have first mover advantage.
Drops in the price are to be expected, take advantage if you can and when the results speak for themselves, the market won't be able to ignore MTL much longer.
All the best
It's hilarious, every time we used to get a doom and gloom warning about gold dropping it was always a little bit higher than the last time, look where that is now. Now we have the same thing with the share price. Every time they grace us with their presence and bestow upon us their wisdom about mine life the share price is always a bit higher than the last time. I think they might actually be jinxing things in our favour. Perhaps they could predict some lottery numbers next.
JWBellamy aka JAdams aka
Jennifer is a regular troll on this board. Always good for a laugh.
Why do people post negative rubbish on bulletin boards.
Do your own research and make investments.
All the long term holders like myself can only see a magnificent future and if you listen and read they’re also trying to buy a third mine locally which will move MTL to a huge gold miner.
Watch this space and learn and I’m extremely happy to have 5 million plus with no intention to see until I see different.
Onwards and upwards.
Hello to all the long term holders.
CV
Still have three to four years of mining life left and they have already acquired assets which will be drilled to prove up resources and would be brough to production really quickly.So there is no need to worry for atleast couple of years about production.Meanwhile price of gold is hitting all time high and every €100 increase adds extra 1.7/2 millions per quarter
Which means there are only so many ounces left to extract… you will need hefty amounts of cash to build another mine… plus you need to explore and so far unsuccessful. Those ramping are not highlighting the significant risks
Let me remind those of Leo_IX who sold out here at 1.85p and asked how I could sleep at night holding 5m MTL shares……. Well Leo since your post I increased to a 6 million holding and sleep very well, I bet your having nightmares letting go of the most undervalued gold stock on the market, at 4p that statement still stands, you could sleep too if you were to get back on and enjoy the long overdue re-rate on our market value.
It’s quite simple, 1p increase in MTLs shareprice is worth £13 million to the billionaires 1.3 billion share holding, they just need to enjoy the ride that’s coming and Darren Bowden who’s employment was of their making is the driving force.
Billionaires don't get to be rich by playing nicely and sharing with everybody. The big shareholders became the big lenders when they bought the bank debt (at what discount we'll never know) and have been bleeding the company dry for years even as the gold reserves dwindled. Now that particular debt-based gravy train is about to hit the buffers you have to wonder what their next wheeze will be to keep the money pouring in, because one billion is never enough is it?
Shaml89
It can't be ruled out simply because most of us would rather it didn't happen. I agree with you in most of what you say, if they 'want' to take it private I would imgine they 'could' do it, but it wouldn't be straight forward and all in all, there's scratch all we could do about it other than vote against at an EGM. They would need to be sure beforehand that it would succeed, so regardless of their intentions, we'll certainly be trading as a UK listed company for some time yet.
Just back in to see 4p on the bid, beautiful, just beautiful, long may this climb continue (in both gold and MTL).
All the best
I agree Tygra anyone wanting to take it private would have to pay a premium but we cant rule out such a move and that is what I am arguing about.I had listened to interview and Darren was headhunted by Nick candy and they have set their sights on two other assets too.That is why drilling compaign is important.
I know little of the old days where the debt scrap caused the price to collapse as I wasn't invested back then. What I do know is that within 2 months (ish) there will be no 'Lender' any longer, as all debt will be history and the cash generated will be used to acquire new assets and replace the loss of production from Runruno (once it expires).
The largest shareholders can very well 'attempt' to take the company private but if they do, I would like to think a number significantly higher than today's shareprice will be required to get the deal accepted.
I also 'hope' that the company stays listed, and that it intends to grow with public investment and not hived off to a handful of individuals. The Philippines Government may also wish for MTL to remain UK listed to show they are open for business and showcase their attractiveness for outward investment.
No matter what, private/listed, the price needed to take this company off the market will be a lot higher than the current £90 million (ish) market capitalisation. It's a win win but like most other private investors, I want to stay invested and ride the value upwards, not take a short term gain via a privatisation.
Can't see Mr Bowden wanting to shaft the shareholders at this point in time. He's set out his vision for growth and reading between the lines, it 'appears' as though he wants shareholders along for the ride.
Time will tell, 3.9p on the bid, over 4p close with a bit of luck.
Yes and major shareholders did not reach required "75%" because some of them had high averages than 13p.Two entities own debt and one of them opposed debt to equity swap as an alternative this plan was cancelled.
You are correct Sham - it was in 2011 and Edwards, who at the time had 7% and an investment bank with 8% objected and reported to the Takeover Panel. Ultimately, Candy had to resell the shares he had acquired back at the 13p acquisition price to those that wanted to reacquire; the market price had since increased to 17p. Had they agreed, the sale would have proceeded and none of us would be here now.
I have been here since 2007 (38p entry price then!) and through all the up and downs. The downs seem to be behind us now and nice ups ahead. I own 1.7% of this company so I'm pretty happy and getting happier....!!
you are incorrect i am afraid taken out of may 2020 rns
"whilst there can be no guarantee an agreement can be reached, discussions and negotiations with the company's lenders in relation to restructuring of the group's overall debt position continue. it is expected that the outcome is likely to require shareholder approval, as the restructuring is expected to include a debt:equity swap component of part of the us$129.8 million of group debt."
it was not rejected by bod i am afraid.************* did cover it and one institutional investor opposed it.when it comes to lenders there is nothing bod can do.
You are incorrect, it was the BOD who turned down the debt for equity swap.
You are arguing that the major shareholders tried to wipe out the ordinary shareholders and also that one of the major shareholders blocked it.
The 13p offer was put to a vote and the major shareholders did not reach the required 75% to have the offer accepted.
It was one of major shareholders who blocked it if I am correct.If he was in agreement it would have gone through.Funnily enough candy brothers's attempt to take it private was blocked by other fellow institutional investors too because price they got offered was way below their average.We are in a different place now but wont surprise me if we see similar move again in not so distant future.
The debt for equity swap was blocked by the board after consulting the retail investors.
14 years earlier a 13p per share bid from the major shareholders was also turned down by the retail investors.
Probably another 14 years before they try anything else. Come back and have a moan about them then.
In my experience when it comes to billionaires vrs ordinary shareholders ordinary shareholders tend to get shafted.They tried to wipe out normal shareholders by imposing debt to equity swap but it was blocked because not all of them were on same page.I still think that it can be taken private but market would determine the price.If drilling compaign is succesfull and they can bring that asset to production really quickly then sky will be limit.
Onwards and upwards!
I too have learnt similar things, I would never invest in a explorer on the basis they found gold, to name one SOLG.L the share price spiked and comes all the way down and nearly a decade later still no production, Early MTL investors suffered the same and I think the time to invest is when they finally begin to process the gold, as you say a decade or so later, unfortunately for MTL, we got off to a poor start because of a lesser experienced management team, Darren Bowden took over 2 years later and proved it just takes expertise, we knew the machinery worked, we knew the gold was in the ground and we knew the grades were good enough, but it took experience and skill to make it work.
My other tip is follow the money, the Candy and Edwards had the most to lose, billionaires don’t get there by losing money, and I had faith they would prop up the finances until we got it right, they organised new management and they financed us over the loss period, and my faith in them kept me onboard through the tough times, and now we are transformed, the Candy and Edwards deep pockets saved the day, and now I know they want to see the company grow along with the shareprice and collect dividends from the 1.3 billion shares they have, let us small timers hang on the their shirt tails, enjoy the ride
I have learned many things about Gold miners vaing been invested in MTL for about a decade. I initially bought around 6p, over the years I averaged down so my average is now around 1.8p. So now I'm very happy.
Lessons learned:
1) It can take 10 to 15 years for a mine to become profitable after initial funding. (These are etremely slow burners)
2) Most likely there will probably be more funding required that will include dilution and debt.
3) I underestimated the difficulty of the Biox process (initial gold recovery ~ 50%)
4) Initially had an inexperienced team managing a "do it yourself project" (in the end it cost them more, they should have started with seasoned professionals).
So in conclusion, next time I chose a miner it will be in full production, with it's full financing in place and managed by experienced professionals.
I'm happy now but for a long period I feared I had lost my whole investment.
Urah looks an attractive valuation mine opening next month or so Emeralds
Should I bag min H1 imho
There are a few large holders who will know the early period of MTL better than me, but I imagine the 2005 to 2007 period there was a lot of excitement that took the shareprice to the 40p range, but as we know it takes a lot of years for a newcomer to get licences and to raise the funds to become a miner from an explorer, I know MTL like the back of my hand from late 2016, where they were about to test the function of the processing plant, MTL had secured finance of $81 million from HSBC at around 8%, but the gold output for the first 2 years was poor as the plant ran at 50% efficiency, so the Candys who were already the largest shareholder bought out the bank loan and found Darren Bowden, thank god, at that time in 2019 total debt had grown to $130 million at 2 separate loan rates of 15% and 7%, I could take a guess the interest will have been a heady $30 million over the last 4 years, but it’s all in the past by April, debts cleared and making $900 to $1000 dollar an ounce, 75 to 80k ounces of gold expected this year and the following 3 years just from Runruno, but as we know we have the Abra tenement in the pipe line, 20km long plot with historical gold finds leaves me very positive Darren has inside knowledge that we have a long future in that acquisition alone, but the intermediate small scale high grade mining plants may be up and running in the next year or two, spinning up another income along side Runrunos $80 million per annum.
Darren Bowden and the Candys have a great relationship and have made it clear we need to promote the business, expand the business to be the biggest and most successful mining company in the Philippines, forget a £200 million market cap for one mine, let’s use the knowledge gained from Runruno and the immaculate relationship with the Philippines government to become a multi asset mining behemoth with a $2000 million market cap (100p) Darren Bowden’s words not mine.