Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I would expect that Fortress has already prepared its counter-counterbid with the price range determined, the exact price depending on CD&R's counterbid. Amazon is still in the wings waiting to see what actually happens.
You could be right kingalf however SP rising this a.m. suggests "somethings afoot" as Holmes would say.
n1shares £2.90 to £3.00 offer would involve some serious asset stripping which in itself would encounter serious objections. £2.75 is definitely the sweet spot IMHO.
Everything will become clear in the next couple of weeks, just remember if it all falls through we would be looking at sub £2.00, therefore the risk/reward is totally weighted against Morrisons now.
What about the £3bn debt. I can't see any higher bid before the vote when I think the takeover offer will be rejected.
£2.75 is far too low and the institutions will not take tat.I think the price most probably will go to between £2,90 and £3 and most probably would get accepted around that price but if they really want it possibly it could go higher especially if Amazon joins as it would be a cheap entry level for it
This is all pointing to a £2.75 final offer price which would get the big boys blessing.
Don't get carried away with all the weekend press releases, they really don't know anymore then the rest of us.
I just can't see Amazon showing up to the party, but would be more then happy to be proved wrong.
This is all pointing to a £2.75 final offer price which would get the big boys blessing.
Don't get carried away with all the weekend press releases, they really don't know anymore than the rest of us.
I really can't see Amazon showing up to the party, but would be more then happy to be proved wrong.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/01/amazon-bid-morrisons-would-prime-move/
https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/sunday-papers-morrisons-braced-for-counterbid/a1536627
With the CD&R Counter Bid likely to be announced in the next few days we should see a hive of activity. Bear in mind that CD&R already have a significant presence in the UK as it owns Motor Fuel Group (MFG) the largest forecourt owner operator in the UK with 900 petrol stations, all well presented and rum by an excellent management team. The firm also operates a well run "Click and Collect" service for parcel deliveries from UPS, FEDEX, and a host of other national delivery networks.
I see a near perfect synergy with the integration of Morrisons. MFG, and Amazon. To that end I firmly believe that Amazon will play a Major role in the full take over of Morrisons . . .
Thank you for the tip Strode.
I see their management experienced the same fate as the Morrison Team when it came to pay increases.
Could well be a precursor to a take over.
Back to Morrisons, I think Fortress will just up their bid if it looks as if they will fail to gain enough support.
I'm sticking with a £2.75 final offer, which I feel will probably be acceptable to the big boys.
Hi Kingalf
Firstly Amazon certainly would not show its hand until it is able to see how the current game plays out.
Secondly, an Amazon bid for Tesco is in fact a complete non-starter. Why? because there would be severe Political opposition to any such moves, not to mention quite a few extremely large and very very powerful investors who would in fact see that such a move fails. Amazon would lose tens of millions of pounds in cold blood just in the bidding process, which would fail. You see when a bidder comes forward in this league its costs a considerable amount of money in fees.
Tip for you. Fortress, when it loses the bidding war for Morrisons, will still be sitting on around $9 billion without a home, so where will it go or where will a large amount of that cash pile go . . . I suggest looking at BandM.
Regards
Strode
The company is definitely going to be taken out all we don't know yet is how much for and by who.Certainly worth a punt at this level IMO.
No nor can I , so current bid will fail on the hope of an improved offer but that may never happen and the sp will fall back but to what!!
Can't see them getting the required 75%. A 15% shareholder has significant sway when 75% is required.
At the current bid value:
Silchester 15.14% not inclined to support
M&G 1.08% does not reflect true value
JO Hambro 1.9% price too low
L&G 2.8% no
Schrodes 4.81% Considering position
Columbia Threadneedle 9.2% unknown
Blackrock 9.9% Unknown
Brandes 1.65% Unknown
State Street 3.27% unknown
Morrisons family c.5% unknown
Shareholder views can change and so can their holding sizes, but 21% currently pushing for higher price
i think strode makes a good point . i hope he is right. lots of big buys after hours. something should happen soon.
Forget about Amazon, they would have indicated some kind of interest by now.
They've got deep enough pockets, why waste your time on Morrisons, when you could easily afford Tesco.
My first posting. I hold shares. I am of the opinion that the Fortress bid which is supported by Appolo and now the Singapore Soveriegn Wealth Fund is an opportunist one. Fortress is looking at this as a relatively fast buck. To make the returns they project they will have to adopt a massive sell off of the property portfolio. Further to enhance their return they will also have to focus on a strategic large scale cost cutting program which will include selling off much of the food manufacturing operations. Thus making Morrisons an much leaner operation purely focused on food retail.
I am banking on Amazon moving into the Bidding taking the price up to to around £3.00. It will provide Amazon with a ready made mass food retail and distribution estate, with a fully competent workforce with a well versed management structure thus instantly projecting Amazons ambitions and taking them to critical mass almost overnight, all without having to spend the next 5 years attempting to build from ground up, possibly costing significantly more, with the added possibilty of failure half way through that build up.
Morrisons is ready made, hassle free, and therefore cheap at £3.00.
I think it's fair to say some directors / companies take on much too much debt as a plan to stop anyone making a takeover bid due to high levels of debt and as such keep them in good jobs.
This might have been Morrisons plan for years, and maybe the directors have almost come to the end of them ever getting the debt down on a trading basis, so why not take / approve a takeover deal.
After all when you read what very large bonuses they the directors will get for the agreed takeover and maybe even keeping their jobs, why wouldn't you agree it, but I don't think the major shareholders would block it.
Who says the assets are worth £11.306m, assets are worth what someone is willing to pay plus look at all the debt.
I believe this bid is worth about £6 + billion and about £9bn if they take on all the debt. The bidders must have a plan to sell off parts of the business / all of the business for more than £2.70 a share to whom?
can someone explain - the assets of MRW are valued at 11,306Million and the number of share issued 2,418Million does that not give a share vale of £4.67 - now obviously debt has to be taken into account of any purchase of the company - so why is £2.70 a good price except for an asset stipper.
Who knows what the sp will fall back to but it only went up from about £1.80 to the £2.60's because of the bid, if the shareholders reject this bid expecting a new higher bid that may not happen then I think it quite reasonable for the sp to fall back down.
As I said before if many now think the true value is about £2.70 would a bidder pay £2.70 to get their hands on Morrisons with the aim of splitting it up if they cannot get more than £2.70 for the parts.
So what would anyone split off , does Morrisons have freehold shores worth millions they can sell off and then rent back, will someone sell off all the small stores? just how would anyone sell off parts and what parts.
But if the plan will be to sit on the current set-up for another 2 -3 years and then to try and sell the lot to someone else for more than £2.70 a share, why not just stay with the current bod's. There are a number of questions here.
Much of the recent commentary mentioned how the stock market was not putting a correct price on "value" companies (such as MRW). Cannacord thought there were 200 UK companies which were ripe for a revaluation prompted by pe interest. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9788967/Pandemic-predators-threat-200-UK-firms-say-City-analysts.html
So would the market really chop the price back down to 180p now that it's out in the open that pe can see value at least up to the 250s.
Everyone knows that if/ when any bid goes through the bidders plan to split Morrisons up, but it must be on a knife edge to know just where the sp needs to be to make a profit from the split .
If the value price of Morrisons is £2.70 any bidder may never be able to make a profit above that price for a split of the business, in which case that may not be a higher bid coming after the shareholders reject the current bid. Close call.