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As we thought SLA selling & KLK buying.
15 minutes ago, the November contract was 3,405 ringgit, and yesterday's CIF Rotterdam price was up$45 to $800. How dumb is SLA? They must be desperate. RNS for crossing 1% boundary soon?
I wouldn't be surprised if it was SLA reducing their stake. The last big trades in MPE were on 28th July at 540p. 580p, when the November CPO price closed at 3,353 ringgit today, is a terrible price to get. KLK must be ****-a-hoop.
I noticed another couple of large buys earlier today. Perhaps something is afoot. Topped up another 1000 shares.
Thats the UT not a sell
Someone wanted out at the bell for 560 - 23k worth.
CPO at USD 770 .
640 paid. Seems busy for MPE.
CPO now US $ 750. 610p Paid. - still well below the historic share price vs CPO ratio.
I was maybe incorrect re uncrossing trade.
This should be 700p.
Oli what makes you think its an uncrossing trade
Its quoted as a large ordinary trade
Seems to be an uncrossing trade. Big volume for MPE.
Not directly relevant to MPE but indicative of the supply issues currently faced by Malaysian producers. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/sep/16/malaysian-prisoners-may-face-forced-labour-on-palm-oil-plantations
Up to US $745 per tonne. H1 numbers as expected. Despite all the Covid shocks H1 20 was actually better than H1 19 - kinda shows how bad the palm oil price was last year.
If the CPO price can stay above $700 then H2 should be promising. What really matters are the increased crop yields in the coming years that will increase profits dramatically.
100000 + trade gone through
Somebody topping up
Could KLK be moving @ this crazy low price
1. rising sustainable dividends (it was just maintained, which is the right thing given the huge capex program)
2. no backwardation on the palm oil price (at present the Oct 2021 palm oil price is over 200 ringgit below the spot price)
3. lots of new plantings (e.g. at least 5000 hectares of new plantings; instead there was hardly any)
4. a low PE ratio (instead it was high before the results so a 500% increase in operating profit had no effect on the share price)
5. cash piling up (instead a huge amount e.g. $50m is going on 2 new mills and maybe biogas plants at Bumi Mas and Musi Rawas). What extra profit will this $50m expenditure bring in from processing ones own ffb? Not a lot, I wonder?
6. An end to the rent tax (the $50 export levy is an obscene rent tax in all but name). We don't get the benefit of it since we don't make any higher value-add palm derived products for export at international prices, I wonder?
7. A decent ROCE. Last year's ROCE wasn't enough to be even debt funded by bank loans. You need 11% ROCE to be able to afford the interest on rupiah bank loan, I wonder?
These are just a few of the things I expect the market wants to see. The above are 7 things we didn't get in the results. Yes, a 500% increase in operating profit is good, but it is off a low base, I wonder? Yes, there is an inconsistency in the valuation: my relative bought at £6.92 in February on a $725 palm oil price. Yesterday, CPO was $720 and the share price was £5.60!
As a long term holder sitting on a loss it is very frustrating.
yet the share price barely moves. What on earth does the market want to see if these figures are not good enough ?
A big fall based on 4 trades with the total number of shares traded been 18 shares. News due next week. Interested to seen how the year is going.
I share your sentiment OLI, I hold AEP and I am dumbfounded as to why 1/2 yr report was brilliant and a possible return to the golden years of 2017-18 with high SP. Yet current SP is left stranded! Low volumes? AEP least of people's priorities? DK
1 CPO prices are very good and holding up - so bodes well for H2 for both MPE and AEP
2 El Nino - Im not an expert - but my take is - if there is El Nino weather, CPO increases, so producers are still good.
If no El Nino weather (assuming no wet weather - that's the hidden risk), increased production - so still good for producers
3 India re-opening up of economy is great news - i.e. restaurants etc usage of palm oil to increase again after lock down
4 Sterling strength? That was a few weeks ago until this whole Brexit nightmare returning again.
All in all, I find myself returning back to my analysis to see whether I have my investment case in AEP wrong. I'm currently taking a look at MPE given the huge mispricing by other investors.
I hear "people" say that the share price of Palm Oil Companies is influenced by a hostile press!
Does anybody really believe this?
Moving back upwards again.
..absolutely OLI12 - they have to notify each time whatever the size of purchase - and they only seem interested to take large (institutional) size stakes. Also agree they haven't built up this stake and had a takeover go already to just walk away - it's a matter of shareholders holding out as long as possible until a reasonable offer (£10+ ?) is made.
It could do with an increase in the CPO price to really lift profits to show the NAV better.
I think their huge efforts to secure 3rd party crop, although lower margin is a good move short term for the interim's.
I really like the fact that the management have already shown they will fight hard for shareholders and not roll over on the first offer as some companies I have held have done!
I am sure KLK will have another crack at taking MPE over, however apart from the holdings RNS dated 29 July I see no evidence of them being active in the market.
Almost in every case if the trade is a unknown it is KLK who seem too have an advantage with certain MMs on the ask price
It seems everyone is helping to push this company into KLKs grip
No!!
Must agree CJ holding this one back corrupt KLK