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Merlin’s fragility: Visitors are always looking for new thrills and attractions. This is offset by strong cash generation. However, when times are bad, maintaining a strict balance between capex, depreciation, revenues and cash is much trickier. That is clear in Merlin Entertainments’ warning on Monday. Earnings before tax, interest, depreciation and amortisation from its theme park division will, it seems, be about £45 million shy of expectations for the full year. This follows the accident at Alton Towers in June that left people badly injured. Merlin’s attractions in the U.K., which range from Madame Tussauds to Legoland, were already wobbling slightly as the strong pound stopped overseas tourists visiting the U.K. and lured Britons abroad. Then it had to close Alton Towers following the accident as well as rides at other theme parks. Worse, the accident occurred just as Merlin had staffed up for the short summer season and was preparing to go all out to promote its theme parks. That didn’t happen and visitor numbers plunged. It is hard to be certain, though. Rival SeaWorld in the U.S. is still struggling under the adverse publicity following a documentary in 2013 on the treatment of its captive orcas. The problem for Merlin is not just the immediate effect of having to close the theme park down and the hit to profits this year. It also has to restore the faith of visitors in Alton Towers while offering them bigger and better thrills without spills. And that will be in the teeth of the British weather and whatever currency headwinds blow next year.
...but i told you so. Just wish people did proper research on here before recommending buying @ 440p Didn't expect it to go this low mind you.
profit warning re coaster crash
Half year results day soon.... expect average results but very challenging outlook stated with last months numbers extremely worrying. uk customer numbers down massively. shares to drop 20% within weeks. small declines already kicking in.
RECOMMENDATION BUY TARGET 448.50 The Major trend of MERLIN ENTERTAINMENTS GROUP PLC it is showing strength for buying .If it breaks the resistance level then one can initiate the buying position in the stock. If it breaks the level of 443.50 then it can test resistance level for the target of 448.50 with the stop loss of 439 CHART FORMATION:- Stock is trading in a range and trading near the trendline. Breaking the resistance line will lead to upside movement. Stock is trading above the 50 DMA with positive bias. INDICATORS:- RSI is trading near to 61.57 level with positive bias, in upcoming session upside movement is expected. MACD and Signal line is sustaining above the zero level line. Skype tayal.smith1
I think you need to get out of your well mate. Merlin as in whole doesn't just depend on Alton Towers. I do agree that merlin will struggle with revenues from UK. What about the rest of the countries they are invested. 2016 is a big year for them since Legoland Dubai and Legoland Japan is opening. I think Merlin will do pretty good in the coming year. I do really hope Merlin will be sub 300p very soon so that I can add more shares into my account.
With the massive investment now complete at AltonTowers the current huge drop off in people attending can only lead to one thing. As an example queue times down from the usual minimum 40 minutes for most rides to less than 5 minutes nowadays, many of the side shops not open and no fast-track sales as no queues to jump In addition with the best ride probably not to re open any short term recovery looks highly unlikely. Merlin will be sub 300p very soon.
before the Alton Towers incidents and obviously dipped since but with summer holidays coming up that should hopefully see us carry on that trend.
http://news.sky.com/story/1512786/four-seen-by-medics-in-new-alton-towers-collision
Looks like it may hit my estimated level of 420 after all. Or does someone want to tell me I'm crazy? I've seen three massive sells since the incident at Alton Towers - totalling around £5million - but no RNS explaining them.
Libel. NO Conclusions as yet Merlin said that since the accident took place, it has been engaged in an investigation of the events which led up to the incident and has been reviewing its safety and operating processes in cooperation with the UK's Health & Safety Executive.
Calls to behead a CEO are ten-a-penny - absolute bojax & simplistic nonsense. Just how does ANY company prepare for events that have never happened before? The CEO won wide praise for his restraint in a totally biased TV interview. If you provide Thrills you will get occasional Spills - a situation as old as the Funfare itself, probably never exactly the same problem re-occurring & rarely such injuries, one hopes.
HSE are under question also so they will have their say and will put them through the hoops, especially as locally previous incidents are well vocalised. The problem will start if they are not documented and then must seen to be used as lead indicators for potential serious injuries/ fatalities. The line from management that 'nothing like it has happened before so we didnt expcet it ' borders on the edge of criminal negligence. As far as share prices go people have short memories when greed drives. This is no BP or Carnival and if it was those shares rebounded in a year. Your money is safe just leave it but the CEO has to go , rewards for all the good he has done now smashed and only a lifetime of legal and self punishment to come.
Feel sorry for those involved. Whilst Merlin is not just Alton Towers and the insurance will cover costs sentiment will be a little shot. I would expect a further retrace in the next day or so especially with the confirmation of an amputation needed for one of the victims. Despite the fact the park is opened and loss has already been incurred I fear the price will drop until the news blows over.
I feel for all the survivors of this. Going for a fun day out and this happens, horrific. I hope they are able to pull through ok, and get on with their lives. Money does not mean anything when stuff like this happens, although the compo will help. My sympathies to all concerned.
i'm guessing they will have liability insurance against this kinda stuff, however someone will have to payout based on her future potential earnings, so could be up to and over £1mil .it must be horrible for the people involved.
True that Merlin is more than Alton Towers - but they've also shut key rides at other parks (Thorpe Park, Chessington World of Adventures) presumably because they operate similar software or simply because they are multi-train rides. Not to mention they have also closed Oblivion (adjacent to Smiler) at Alton Towers. June / July / August are big months and with 2 of the big 6 rides out of action at Alton Towers, this couldn't have come at a worse time. BBC reporting pre-booked tickets getting refunds - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-33040618 Couple that with all the negative publicity, which I personally don't think is helping... DYOR and good luck all
I'm not sure how much this is going to cost them.. feeling sorry for the young lady .... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3115191/Girl-17-Alton-Towers-rollercoaster-crash-leg-amputated.html
Incidents impact is concluded. Plan in place to deal with it, park reopened. It's a blip, Merlin isn't just Alton Towers. Bought in again at £60 a point Spread bet today at 439
Risk managers can never buy enough insurance. What you are insuring against is human error. There is never a solution to human error.
Interesting comments, we'll see what happens I guess
You may have a long wait. Revenues may well increase with increased safety regulations. The saying there is no such thing as bad publicity maybe the case. I'm sure insurance will cover most of the lost revenue over the past days plus any litigation/compensation.
No, not at all - just waiting to get in when it falls to correct levels.
1 mill is peanuts, look at m cap . Are you a shareholder if so I'm presuming you have sold out on the back of your calculations???
I can't understand how this share price is holding to early-May levels, it should have fallen to at least 420p by my calculations. There was a massive sell on Friday 5th just before close (£1,000,000+). Expect this to fall further once they start reporting financials and facts.