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" Can anyone please confirm if they have actually stated anywhere that they will update on the NA sale during FY results ? "
I doubt they need to state it, as it is a near certainty anyway ...given that they announced " Strategic decision taken to prepare the North America School Bus business for disposal " within the Reporting Year (October)
Thanks xxxaccountant.
It was the brief mention on the q & a I'd forgotten.
What is clear as day to me now, that this moves on US markets / US rate expectations , possibly NA sale related if that is going to impede potential suitors. Most other UK listed equities made a partial recovery after the knee jerk reaction, but not this.
They mentioned briefly on the conf call after the ‘results delay’ in the Q&A that they would provide an update with the results in April.
Their original note from last October said “commence sales prices in early 2024” which by definition would be in the first quarter .
So..,there should be demonstrable progress one would have thought
If we sink to 60-62p tomorrow I’m loading up
Can anyone please confirm if they have actually stated anywhere that they will update on the NA sale during FY results ?
I have skimmed the rns from Feb and recently on timing and couldn't see anything unless I'm blind.
Totally agree Smokey, that’s my thinking.
With 25% of shares in cosmen’s and Azvalors hands I still think something brewing. If they buy more in the next few days then takeover coming. By then they’ll own 30% on the cheap and the rest they have to pay a premium. Very wise
Accountant
Totally agree, very bizarre how the market works with most interest fixed yet any rate cuts and this stock is up 7-8% on a good day. In all honesty most of the bad news is out there and management have lowered their EBITA forecasts so would just be embarrassing if they do not meet that figure as they are the ones that set that figure forecast range. Can only see good news potentially from this update with regards to better profitability potentially with increase prices kicking in and possibly a glimpse of something positive regarding the NA sale. Management cannot do any worse now surely....
Smokey
I think the chances of a rate cut are being pushed back a bit
If we can clear some of this debt then interest rate expectations won’t impact us so much.
Oddly 80% of our debt is on fixed interest so I still struggle with why rates affect our share price
I think it’s because we are more a cyclical stock which would get taken down more in the event of a stock market correction which of course higher interest rates could
Positive news due in 2-3 weeks so I’m going to do this one out for now
If the news is terrible I’ll buy more on a dip because it will come good eventually and when it does, this should bounce hard in the opposite direction
IMO Labour are going to bring an initial sense of hope ...hope of change ...but ..with budget constraints they will make small and gradual changes knowing they must not frighten the City or Foreigners wanting to buy UK debt
I dont see anything to shudder over .... they will have their spending desires somewhat capped and Starmer knows it , and has already admitted it
The Tories are at a dead end with no where to go....no future in that
"within 2025 of having some economic direction and stability would be a better option for making any decisions to split and sell these divisions"
I don't know. Labour Party with a super majority :shudder:
There isn't much political stability prospect in the US with Trump or Biden
Business needs to plan for all contingencies
I think waiting until after a UK election and US election and "hopefully" getting to a year within 2025 of having some economic direction and stability would be a better option for making any decisions to split and sell these divisions
..and if China pulls through economically then Germany will improve too
Wealth
I dont know, but would be interested to see the margins for driving buses around the likes of Lisbon and Oporto as opposed to driving them around the West Midlands
The company is structured and ripe to split up and sell off. Discrete valuable entities that can easily stand on their own. The board needs to do it before someone else takes us out and does it and reaps the rewards. I stated this scenario a year ago and think we have now got to that point when splitting up is a better option that trying to regroup and trade through the problems.
As you say, although frustrating at times, we will wait and see but my money is now literally on that happening at some point!
64% chance of a rate cut by June investors anticipating so if that happens and a positive set of results in next couple of weeks should get above 80p again. Reckon will need another positive catalyst to continue upwards from there. Just my opinion what's everyone's thoughts ?
It does go back to the name change which suggests a secret plan
National Express was a buyout of the National Coach Company ( this was a state run operation back in the good old days) . They bought West Midlands Travel and rebranded it National Express West Midlands.
The National Express brand has huge intangible value and has no impact outside the UK . It does make it easier to split off, because that's what you are selling.
We shall see - In the goodness of time
Poker - Agreed, but as the board have stated the aim to move to higher margin businesses and this is as one of the main justifications why they are preparing US School bus for sale (to reinvest in higher growth margin opportunities) surely that puts UK Bus and German rail square in that same category and should be sold off - perhaps even more so?
Wealth
whatever business you are in, you become tied to something ...and for UK Bus there at least seems to be a current agreement with both the Govt and West Midlands with regards the level of support/subsidy ..and it is a political issue which does help stabilise the support levels
The business is always going to be a lowish margin and dependent on volume number of passengers ...but that is true of many businesses
For now what is needed is the current performance with regards to customer numbers after last years 12% price increases
Genghis - UK Bus and German Rail are the most concerning in terms of "can they ever achieve high ROCE" as their hands are tied with government, which is why I would advocate a sale of them, raise a couple of hundred million (must be worth that?) and UK Coach must be also worth a decent return now. Pay down some debt, re-invest some in US School Bus and Transit and float US in a couple of years and list Alsa in Europe or take private. Thats how I think it could turn the current £400m value to £2b+ in 2-3 years time of £3+ p.share
Anything in the Spain / Portugal zone is (or will be ) good business and Cosmens probably have the market all sewn up.
It's the other areas which are a bit worrying
Car hire still creates a lot of pollution and the EU targets mean these pollution levels have to come down..... one way is to provide electric buses and move people at volume .... increasing tourist numbers using car hires or even taxis are also causing increasing traffic issues
The Canary Islands project looks a good one
No problems with that. It looks like they want to provide more bus services instead of hire cars . Maybe these things need to run for a while
Wealth
the last 18 months or more they have invested a lot of time and money into setting up Lisbon and Oporto bus services ...both of which are now in operation.
so... you would expect the financial outlay to now be much lower within 2024 and beyond , which will show on the accounts
Wealth
Tenerife and the other islands get subsidies from the Spanish Govt and Alsa have plans to expand .... apparently Car rental companies have fleets of 70,000 vehicles and there are plans to tap into those users by providing better bus services, thus reducing the number of cars
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/islas-canarias/2024-01-02/transporte-regulado-viajeros-canarias-millones_3801156/
There is also all this talk about a consortium with Mobico-Cosmen-Alstrom etc to run high speed trains ..London to Barcelona, Madrid to Lisbon on the new line etc etc
Pipeline at £1.5bn and the 28% win rate at 28% ROCE is coming mainly from US Transit
"Year to date over two thirds of the Group's pipeline conversion has come from the Transit & Shuttle
division. The division has nearly £500m of opportunities (representing approximately one third of the
Group's pipeline) and we continue to have confidence in the attractive capital-light growth potential
of this business into the medium term."
If we can return 28% ROCE everyone would invest in MCG…. Half that and we’re laughing
" 28% ROCE. I doubt that is sustainable "
28% WIn Rate at 28% ROCE is what I mean by unlikely to be sustainable. That would be a game changer if that continued across the pipeline.