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priced in... the Boris announcement. It's virtually certain they will go ahead and do it .
Whereas the Carlsberg deal is a life saver for Marstons ( debt grew to almost unsustanable levels), they will be the major partner. Do not under estimate not only the benefits but also Carlberg have shareholders too.
It should be noted under the terms of the agreement Marstons must retain at least 50% of the estate ( Pubs etc) otherwise in breach of the JV.
The company is probaly under-valued against all known information, however there are a number of unknown factors going forwards .
The market has/will form a view.
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I have to agree... surely this is already priced in. The puzzle is why the sp was kicked around last week by the market at 60-65p.
A couple of things to add to the mix are:
1. The effect of staycation this year as the money usually spent overseas will be spent in the UK
2. The return to a full sports calendar should benefit beer sales.
An upbeat update would also help.
Fairdealer, I think you are right to point out that the pub industry was suffering pre Covid but I believe this was priced in and at £1.20ish per share that was a fair price for Marstons. The fact that the new normal for pubs might affect the important foot fall and food factor and in turn this will affect overall turnover, profits and share price is a concern. The deal with carlsberg should be a positive but there’s possible closures to be concerned with which is a negative. All things considered even if the new fair price for marstons is 15-20% below pre Covid prices leaving us at 95-100p it still means we could, and in my humble opinion should, see a nice rise in share price over the coming days/weeks.
DA true, but only bottled and canned product and not Draft which is by and large the bulk of sales at Pubs.
There was an issue with supply of bottles and cans which created a shortage for some retailers.
The AGM was in January, thursday meeting is an update of Interims which have been postponed from May, and acceptance of the Carlsberg deal.
fairdealer20, Marstons Brewing operations continued during lockdown to supply supermarkets and such.
Too many are looking at the World through rose tinted glasses. Remember the company will be making an update this week, which should go some way towards indicating the direction of travel.
As mentioned many times, Pubs were in decline before CV19, and will now speed up the "cull".
How many Pubs ( closed currently) are you seeing, look untidy, in need of a good clean ( externally). Would'nt this lockdown have been an ideal time to smarten up the appearance? Who is going to be attracted by a tardy looking pub?
Not a clue I am expecting them to announce pub closures to be honest. A number including the one I work at were not doing great Before Corona. but I only have idle chat with nothing solid to back it up. I emailed the Joint Venture team and they didn't really answer the question.
Further information please as most Breweries only commenced brewing 2 weeks ago.
Please remember, no tenants have paid rents for 3 months, and discussions are ongoing as to when full rents will resume. I agree we are all desperate to get serving, but the days of wall to wall customers was gone before this happened, so it’s going to be a struggle.
As I also stressed before , Marstons new build pubs, were geared for non stop food all day, at discount prices, and serious numbers to keep them full. Just don’t get carried away here when Boris makes his statement.
The only sure winners here were the clever ones who got in at around 20p.
The first beer deliveries have been shipped to the pubs
Johnson to announce 4 July re-openings on Tuesday - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53129845
if there is any sign at all that the Pubs and Motels, Hotels can come out of lock down this sector will rocket. Talk on the telly is that the Chancellor is discussing that drinking back to back may be allowable less than 2 metres as it is when one faces another that the risks increase. For Marston who own Motels, Hotels. Hostieries customers will have booked in already so I see Marston shares taking off with any inclination for the doors to open - could be a good week for those holding shares - happy days are here again!! They will probably find Beer (real ale) stops the virus who knows?
Anyone expecting any positives from the AGM on Thursday or do we think it will just be standard business?
Do you we are due a big rise this week?
Suggestions from government as in todays newspapers that drinkers might have to register before popping in to a pub for a pint or 3 is not terribly bullish for Mars if it happens is it ?
Big news week coming up
1m
Pubs opening soon
Hot weather for supermarket sales
I have quite a few friends that work within the beer distribution and they have already started going back into work. Can't be far away now from being reopened.
Do we think with the 2metre potential reduction and the green light this week for pubs to open ... see a nice incline going forward? Hope your all having a great weekend.
Thanks Rugs.
That is a very large uncrossed trade. Maybe one of the major ii's has disposed of some shares. Will probably know more early next week.
This is now imminent from what I’ve heard. Supermarkets have been given a heads up that this may happen now within a week. That is big news for pubs and the difference between make or break. Fingers crossed for the 4th July to reopen as that should help bolster the coffers. Any later and it’s more of a worry.
Btw, first post but long time lurker and investor, also love the posts from Trent, Fairdealer20 et al. Thanks for all your informative and balanced comments.
Did you see someone sell 7 million shares at close today? Is that a common thing? I saw the share price then drop slightly. Cheers guys.