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mint adding to Barchid's contribution, money coming from Carlsberg will pay down debt which at the end of the last financial year came to c. £1.3billion. We do not know how debt has increased/decreased during the last 6 months.
If you believe the reciept from Carlsberg will add to the NAV, think again as we do not know how commercial property values have been effected by current events. This is not unique to Marstons but to every company within the hospitality sector.
AIMO DYOR
?? Not sure if i said they will keep the cash. Sorry, basic valuation on share price. EV - "Net Debt" = Market Cap / shares = share price. If they get cash, it reduces net debt. Doesnt matter if they keep cash in hand or pay debt. Its Net Debt thats important. Obviously, any company will pay down debt rather than holding it in bank account. BTW, they have not given up 100% control. Its a JV.
@mint502
So you think that by giving up 100% control of the brewery for a 40% stake that money, when it is paid, will be kept as cash ?
When they have a huge debt pile (one could say mountain) ?
Carlsberg JV deal £273m
mint where is the £250m cash you mention?
...spelling a bit iffy... ffs
@robsanders - Worldpanel plus data, released on 7th July would indicate a positive step forwards in this arena (pubs).
Pubs, Bars & Restaurants are seeing good green shoots of growth. With pubs going from zero to around 25% of pre-lockdown footfall in a very short space of time. Those restaurants that have reopened are seeing around 55% of pre-lockdown footfall and it seems to be growing, albeit with a fluctuating but continual upward trend. If they continue to monitor the demand and adjust accordingly to keep costs down they will recover, but not overnight.
I think that some commentators are misreading the voucher scheme. In the past if an operator offered a 50% discount (up to a maximum of £10 per head) they were funding it themselves. The government scheme means that they can offer the discount and the business can claim it back, retaining their full sales value (less some administration costs) and there is an added bonus of a VAT cut.
This area will recover, just not as fast as some people want it to to.
But this deal is not done yet and not completed until 1/3 rd qtr ie, July-Sept so I don't think they will get the money (£250m) until then so it cannot be already included in the sp. Or am I wrong ?
showing "disasterous* trading during the opening weekend
Consumers are not changing their stay at home tacctics in the short term
Its trading at these levels near term because of the risk of second wave. Infact most shares in restaurants / hospitality / airlines are. All these shares are trading at or near levels of what they were on 22nd May. Check Mitchell for example.
For Marstons, remember they got cash of c.£250m which equates to c. 30cents per share. Thats why it went up from 35p per share to c.66p per share on the day of announcement. Near term it will surely go up to those levels again subject to second wave not becoming a reality. The news of Leicester lockdown started this with worry of other areas also needing a lockdown after a spike in R factor. With pubs opening, this risk has gone higher. If there is no negative news on this for the next week, i think these will rise again. Anyhow, these are good buying levels.
Thank Blawat for the info for me or whoever it is Fiona! You sound like the horses mouth! but we could all say the same after a sober appraisal.
IMO as we all have say.... I very much doubt these to rise till the back end of Q3 which holds many answers. Firstly we need the actual signed JV doc, then we need the RNS on the actual deal to make interest and heads turn, then we need the restriction to the lowest govt setting to allow investment to take place. Those watching these shares to raise this month or next are sadly going to be disappointed. We expect mid Aug to Sept to make these rise and a few more shakes of the tree before true value is seen. I would say "Buy" for a long term but "Sell" if you're you cannot wait 90days ++ These will blossom 2021. Again IMO these will settle throughout summer 49-56p then as we head to Q3 results uplift.
The whole sector does not appear to reacted well to the various initiatives announced today.
The Market clearly has concerns.
This is a market for Gamblers.
hold a large number of shares 2 brokers maybe 7k down. confident in the share but not this covid con. the mendacious govt can create any scenario they like cos the dumb population now have zero skepticism. I went A &E yesterday. nearly didnt go in reading the notice outside. Dont recall the exact words but basically DONT come in unless you are likely to die this week. Hard for me to get there , so I did. Man was very nice didnt have to wait long as only 2 others there . Triage by a DOCTOR not nurse was easy for obvious reasons. sorry i forgot you may be dumb- cos noone to compete with. Passed the main work station 9 or 10 doing nothing . taken into x ray. man in charge only one with no mask cos he was telling stories to his 4 assistants. They did my 5 minutes then reverted to doing nothing. cos of bad design had to walk thro whole hospital to get to the exit . Marie celeste -apart from maternity.I am so sick ,of watching the news-or is it drama ?- showing a totally false view for the masses. Note I do not blame the staff. who wouldnt want pay for not working . must be laughing inside at all the nonsense except when they think of the cancer and other people who HAVE died due to being cut out.Good luck MARS ! they still want to close all pubs to stop the only place left where things get discussed.
150 a day of covid, wonder how the yearly flu and/or pneumonia rates are looking this year, I hear they've been almost completely eradicated in Germany!
These now seem very good value in the medium term. Suprised they have drifted down so far today
People may not have the confidence to venture out and eat. I think drinkers would on the other hand. I don't think the lack of confidence is down to Marstons, more likely the Gov cant organise a p**s up in a brewery when it comes to tackling COVID. 150 people dying per day is clearly horrific.
On the upside, Directors have been buying shares over the last few weeks. Maybe they like us were hoping for a better upside. I have added to my holding today.
What is perplexing me is that Marstons have had positive reviews and recommendations from top sheets and the majority of brokers and on a day when discounts and lower VAT on food is announced it is now back almost to the lows of the day when normally we'd have a big rise. I can only assument it's general market weakness and big investors simply don't believe pubs and restaurants will recover anytime soon. It's very frustrating but I'm certainly not handing my shares over cheaply!
The Sunak meal deal will be popular, I think. I haven't ventured into a pub in months but with suitable precautions I might do so as the price has suddenly halved... I really cannot see much downside here now. But we are in the hands of City racketeers... they own and run this casino and usually win at it so anything is possible. They just want to churn this stock as volume is everything to them. But pubs are a centuries old way of life and a virus won't kill that. Finally, I've nothing against shorting a hopeless company but that's not what we have here.
I hate shorters holding back the markets, its time to grow not profit from negatively.
@wiggy, yes, you're right. These b*sta*ds should be shot... anyone who thinks the market is a level playing field needs to wise up. It's a scam run by parasites and is emphatically not in the interest of the average investor.
I'm currently on furlough. I can't afford Tesco. If my shares rocket I'll be going to Waitrose. Yes ruby is nice and also the gold.
This 1 share cr*p. It's MMs trying to influence the direction. Who else would do it? They work for their large clients, not PIs. They knocked it back prior to Sunak's statement and took stock on board, then pumped it up after he spoke in order to sell to unwary buyers, only to crush it again soon after. MMs are not innocent intermediaries... they dictate market direction in their own interests. It isn't a passive role...
Usually shares rise on news like this and often come back once the reality hits. We don't even have a sustained bounce. In fact at the time of writing the price is once again pushing down near below 50 again which is a bit odd
I've just topped up here. How is this now only 50p again?! It makes no sense to me. Only way is up (or down).