The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Does anyone know when they report results next..would think sometime in July? This should gain some momentum with hopefully better than expected results. Until then, i doubt this will go significantly up.
I bought yesterday on HL. So its also available on that platform.
Is it heading back to £410?
Remember in their annual report, they mentioned two imminent covenant breaches on liquidity, if they did not get the tax refund in April or they dont open theaters in May, they will again breach liquidity covenant for May. I am sure they must have received the refunds on tax and May reopening is happening, but markets will want to see some trading update, RNS to be reassured of either covenant waiver or news of receipt of refund. Overall, i think Company successfully negotiating contracts with studios is a positive and means they have the liquidity but market will want to see some RNS update IMO.
Agree banks make money both ways. Must correct myself as there are loans issued by banks also ofcourse which dont trade known as Term Loan A (amortising) but usually large / mid corporate prefer institutional debt as its cheaper and less to no covenant. Meggitt for example has pure bank loans still although its quite large.
All debts for large / mid corporate trade. Banks just underwrite and syndicate like shares. Banks expose balance sheet to RCF (revolving credit facility) for working capital needs.
All said i am still invested in the stock (also because my average is quite low) as i dont think it still falls in the category of ALL RISK and NO RETURN. I still think its high risk high reward, although do feel some pain still to come in the form of equity raise likely. But do also think Cine has other options outside of capital markets. There is good liquidity in banking and private markets still.
:). Good luck you too. I think any views backed with hard data or theory should be welcome but need not be constantly repeated. Idea of the forum should not be to bring each other down but to lift each other with info / knowledge so that every one is a winner! Its not about who was right or who was wrong but about sharing info! Investors should make their own choice post that.
Okay, thanks. Its a lot off (as in worse) from what i last heard but such info is useful. Thanks again.
Does someone not have a friend in an investment bank / leverage finance who can tell us where Cine Term Loans are currently trading? This will somewhat clear the confusion of debt holders mindset. My view is that its not trading much lower to par at the moment. I am trying to get someone i know at a bank to validate.
Mine showing too together on HL
IMO Cine will have many options to restructure / refinance. In my experience, companies get liquidated for the following main reasons:
1. The product it sells does not have any demand (present or future). Many retailers over the years have gone into liquidation due to this
2. Due to a fraud due to which companies have not been able to revive
3. Complete shut down of banking system due to banking failure sucking liquidity out of market due to which high levered companies cannot refinance (like in 2008-2009).
Note that this time its not a banking crisis yet (and dont envision it to be). There is enough liquidity both in banking and private markets. Private Equity raised record monies before pandemic to deploy.
Liquidation is not any easy process and debt holders dont want to go that route unless they dont see any visibility of revenue creation. In all cases, they dont recover even half of the money if under liquidation.
I dont think Cine has any of the above 3 issues. Yes, it could be a difficult process with things like convert debt / equity issue demanded by debt holders to get shareholders to put some skin the game. Otherwise, Cine will go private to relist after a few years. Also remember, usually bonds and leveraged loans dont have covenants (they are issued Cove lite) in "normal circumstances". Cine's covenants most likely is in the RCF (which is the money put by banks exposing their balance sheet), and if some banks back out of the RCF syndicate, others most likely will step in to replace to take risk but with the hope to get business later on (thats how investment banks operate:). Think someone else also mentioned this. All IMO ofcourse:)
I think this time banks might ask for shareholders to put some more skin in the game before the waivers. Mooky has been reluctant to do any form of equity as it dilutes him if he does not participate but think he wont have much option now. Anyhow agree, they should eventually get waiver.IMO
IMO, 16p was a good buy in for some amount. Should go back close to 30 today
I really doubt there will be any form of equity capital raise because it dilutes Mooky and family if they dont participate especially in a rights issue. Considering the situation with its own family business where it has pledged Cine shares (we all know this from RNS), i dont think he will have that kind of money. Thats why he did a private placement of shares in loan market when he raised money post pandemic. If there is issue with covenant relaxation (which i dont think there be hopefully an issue), he will have other options like taking company private with PE.
Strong cash is backed by Covid grant, working capital reversal. Will be interesting to see how minimum EBITDA test unfolds, not a usual covenant test. Barely EBITDA positive in this half year. All said, do see a lot of upside in stock if Covid situation gets better by year end.
As long as there is no more lockdown news! Think this will rise properly on news of vaccine. Three in the Phase 3 due to announce in Oct / Nov timeline. Hope that happens
I agree, some big investors buying to hold prices.
Besides the MBO opinion, i think this will be a race between when vaccine news comes vs Cineworld liquidity position. If we believe vaccine will be here by Nov Dec, i think these stocks will rebound massively on anticipation of next year movie backlog. I think debt holders will willing to provide relaxation on covenant breached in that case. I hear three vaccines which could come within the next two months. Lets hope thats the case. All of this IMO
I think IMO your investment should be okay one way or another. But agree on fall today not sure how much.
I think he will take company private through management buyout with help of Private Equity in the coming months. He will have more flexibility on debt and less public markets disclosure / scrutiny. Relist after a few years.