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Grow up
Exactly Tricky, Reincarmated just posts nothing relevant just a deramping idiot zZz
We know that next week will see anything from 50- 100% uplift on this share price. So a bit of mystery yes. But not like the convoluted, desperate deramping going on here with Supercharger's delusional nonsense. Mate. It's not going to 30p. Buy in now. This is a superb price. I might buy some more after my walk so knowing my luck the price will be up a bit by then, lol. The time is right now.
No point trying to manipulate a lower sp. Investors see you coming. And it must be humiliating for you? Quite hard to watch.
Just buy back in and be done with it. I promise not to laugh about it ;)
Current market cap = £292,400,000
Marston's 40% stake in the new company will be worth £312m (40% of the £780m valuation)
Add to that initial proceeds from the sale of Marston's beer company = an additional £230m
Therefore, upon completion of the JV net asset value will be £312m + £230m = £542m
Which is around 85% greater than the current market cap
Factor in investor sentiment and potential upside from the current share price, upon completion of the JV is around 80% to 100% (or more) around £0.80 to £0.90 per share, or more.
The bottom line is, a hugely value enhancing, company transformative deal is due to be completed imminently - and the JV is definitely not priced in.
Still here you weasel
who does have concrete evidence on any stock? that is called ''insider trading'' The bottom line is the pub industry will not return to normal even this time next year. To this effect all stocks will be compromised and we will not see a ''false rally'' like we saw in March after the crash where so many stocks doubled. This was on the hope Covid would be gone quickly, when in essence it will be around even this time next year with a Vaccine that will be mediocre at best.
"are not as rosy"
A lot of chatter regarding the values of both brewing businesses and the resultant value to Marstons.
Headline values frequently quoted, £580m(Mars) and £200m(Carls), but no mention of apportioned Loan debt attached to both Businesses. Dig into the records and it is clearly seen Marstons Brewery Business has NET worth of £196m and Carlsberg £137m.
A question I am yet to discover is, will the attached Loan Debts be transferred to the New Company (CMBC)? i.e circa £447m(£384m,Mars, £63m Carls). This is a simplified method to establish true asset value attributable to CMBC. There are unknowns, the way Marstons will use the reciept from Carlsberg, will Loan providers allow Brewery Assets to be transferred where held as Security?
What this highlights is if the asset being transferred are to meet the values being stated, the Parent will retain the apportioned Debt or the Loan is transferred to CMBC.( unlikely imo).
The numbers are as rosy as at first thought, add to which as Barchid highlighted a few days ago, Marstons have some high coupon Loans which will probably remain even after payment from Carlsberg .
The JV completion is still to play out, I may revisit after Tuesday with my thoughts.
Pitterpatter, spot on!
SC, nuff said
You seem to have concrete evidence that the SP is already factored in> Can you also share this fir enlightenment? I saw several posted recently where you state that this will not raise on the notification and you're still harping on about going to low 20's...... How come experienced traders and still buzzing on this JV and will see a huge uplift on buys once announced for certainty yet you think it will be depreciated.
They dropped the original JV announcement on a Friday afternoon, we know it's today or Monday or early next week. Patience is key! It's coming!
but don't think it will surge, news factored into SP already
seem to have lost you?
It would be better on Monday as the excitement will be fresh. An RNS today would not be the way forward. Anyone dreaming of a Friday RNS is on a different planet. SC your sums aren’t including what Carlsberg bring to the table - your calculation is £580m for Marstons and 0 for Carlsberg lol, Seriously. If you can’t see any positives here go find another share where you can, life is too short to be trolling LSE bulletin boards with opinionated nonsense. Admittedly it isn’t sunny outside today but come on......
Its a JV, so if you take that approach; ask yourself this:
Is 60 of Marston's brewery worth more than 40% of Carlsberg’s brewery because thats the deal as you have stated it?
Its about scalability, distribution, access to Carlsburgs network of brewrys a crossed the globe and low brewing costs.
Not to mention 280mil in the bank, thats the current MCAP but the way lol
Hmmm - Where’s the red dot?!?!?!
Would it make a big difference if it’s Monday? As it will be done by then
If you come back and say to me that you cannot include the loss of the 60% Marstons share of their own brewing business as the value of the deal is over the current book price then no doubt Mr Taxman may have something to deduct as well.
All I am saying is I am a little bit worried and concerned if the deal is not concluded tomorrow as promised by the end of October, sometimes the market will not always react positively as it likes to work on expectation and in advance so I wish you all well for tomorrow an important day but nothing is always as it seems.
Looking at it another way Marstons owned a brewing business valued at £580m - will only own 40% ££232 leaving a loss of £348. For which they are paid by Carlsberg Uk £230 (as disclosed on the Marstons web) plus they also gain a 40% share of the Carlsberg share which is worth according to Giantsquid £80m (tbc) means Mars get on the books a total of £232 plus £80 =£312,000 (plus any future contingent payment) against an accounting loss of their 60% share worth £348m?
That’s a very informative post giantsquid!! I also really enjoyed reading this so a thank you for this! I couldn’t agree more that this is a great share to have within the hospitality sector! Let’s see what tomorrow and Monday brings!
Upon completion of the JV, market cap will have to reflect the net asset value of the Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company.
Market cap is currently just £295m!!!!
Upon completion of the JV, initial net proceeds from the sale of Marston's Beer Company into the joint venture with Carlsberg will be around £230 million. These proceeds will be used to further reduce the level of bank debt.
The deal valued Marston’s brewing business at £580m and Carlsberg’s UK brewing division at £200m.
Marston’s will own a 40 per cent stake in the joint venture
Marston's own 40% of the new company = 40% of £780m = £312m
Carlsberg own 60% = £468m
Marston's 40% (£312m) + initial proceeds from sale of Marston's beer company (£230m) = £542m
£542m divide by 660,360,000 shares in issue = £0.82p per share based on asset value alone - add to that investor sentiment and the share price could easily go a fair bit higher than that.
Let's not forget this JV will make Marston's one of the safest, if not THE SAFEST stock in the hospitality sector, a company that will be far stronger financially and far more capable of getting safely through the pandemic and booming once this is all over and the recovery can finally begin.
Investors looking for bargain hospitality stocks that have huge potential upside and are about as financially safe as they come will be hard pressed to find anything better than Marston's
We all know sentiment plays a part at times, any additional bonus news and we may all end up surprised. Got to be in it to win it.
Yes I am same I don’t know how much rise we’ll get but I’m just saying get on tomorrow as it will be Monday 100% latest
I personally don’t see this jumping up massively at all with the current climate as it stands. I think we’re be lucky if we see 55p on announcing the completion, unless there is something else to be announced as Fiona mentioned there might be a bonus. I think however in the long term this is a great investment. Who knows what tomorrow will hold and over the weekend!
Exactly this, Why would they mention it days before announcing it. They’re going to catch you out Supercharger which is a shame as you were pro completion before the CMA stood down. Seems a little odd to be betting against the market on both sides of the spectrum if you ask me but as I’ve said before and will say again, each to their own. You shouldn’t be letting others influence your investment decisions.