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Giantsquid, agree. Out of hospitality sector only stock i hold is Marstons as I think they will now survive and for me the risk vs reward here is appealing
It's better to own 40% of a much bigger pie than 100% of a much smaller one - the new company will be much bigger and offers far more scope plus the JV gains Marston's a valuable partner - a global giant with a £125 billion market valuation.
The cash payment of £230m will be used to reduce debt so contrary to Supercharger's claim shareholders won't see the money, that money is a substantial ASSET that will be used to reduce the business's liabilities and put it on a more secure footing. Net asset value = total assets - total liabilities.
In these exceptionally difficult times, a JV with a global giant is about as good as it comes. Marstons is now one of the safest stocks in the hospitality sector with a much brighter future ahead of it.
Buy-Sell you are quite correct and that is why my biggest headache every year is what shares can I sell in January to March before everyone else does to meet my and my wife's Capital gains allowance. We have no cramer verses cramer. My biggest competitor is my pension provider and we always have a private joke about who has made more with my funds. I usually make more than them on my private funds compared to my pension fund. So Mr Fairtrader you might want to reconsider who is conning who. I would rather be in charge of my own investments that pay someone else to do so and then have them make less than I can myself.
Think about it Mr Fairtrader you said the Pubs was the main business for Marstons and I said it was the "off" sales sold to supermarkets, etc. You should therefore be happy but I am unhappy with the sale of 60% of Marstons main money earnings at the moment in a pandemic that is spreading -despite the fact you disagree. As it turned out Marstons said that they met 90% of sales mainly due to the increase in "off sales" well now they only will have 40% from the brewing side and you feel it is a great deal all of a sudden? You are conning yourself to be honest if you think so. The sale only took place because it needed to protect the Pubs in my opinion and I would have prefered to have sold the Pubs and kept the Brewing business. Or have had a rights issue instead to raise extra needed emergency cash. I appreciate you cannot see what I can but that is not a problem for me after all this is an open discussion and certainly not a con. Think about it you cannot con me. I sold out a week or so ago for 3p a share more than after the deal has been signed. I feel I have been honest when I said openly on this board be careful. We will readdress this issue if the Uk does fall into lockdown but at the moment with all of your positive support I can afford to be negative. Good weekend.
I’d take a +24% return on all my investments any day and every day.
I’m hoping for some upward movement on Monday.
GLA
24% isn’t much to sing about mate, be interesting to see if the institutions start loading up moving forward. Atb
I have followed posts here for a while. Fairdealer out of all your posts I like the last one best
Jekyll and Hyde. worm has turned, delusional, Gamekeeper turned Poacher, or CON MAN. Take your pick!!
Pitter P -with lock down spreading across the Country the main income for Marstons was their brewery business and off sales. They have taken cash to reduce debt but now only own 40% of their past pay master the brewery business. Carlsberg UK were bringing less to the party on brewing than Marstons yet they now own the majority share due to the cash payment to reduce debt (shareholders will not see it). The amount they paid Marstons does not reflect to me at this stage what was lost i.e. the 60% based on the pre JV figs, and for the goodwill of the business. Marstons have 40% of the Brewery business and less than 1400 pubs still with a large growing debt pile in lockdown. The reason for them not jumping to as some said 80p or even what I said 73p is due to analysts working this one out. However as I said before if they fall down to my original buying point being in the late 30p's I will come back in here depending on the Virus situation. In the meantime I am happy to have sat on my 24% profit taking from this share previously (pre deal signing and above todays price) and to have spread my risks. My banking shares have risen more in the last week than Marstons and so I am doing ok. To me the fact Marstons accepted only 40% of the JV shows the pressure they were under. I would have thought an equal share would have been more in keeping. All the best.
Marston's now has a big brother - one with a £125 billion market cap making this a much, MUCH safer stock to invest in - a company that can now weather the coronavirus storm and come out of it in a position to make a strong recovery. No big rise today but that's okay, at least the deal is now done and word is only just getting out the merger has completed - so let's see what next week brings. Irrespective of the pandemic, the only way is up from hereon for the Carlsberg Marston's brewing company!
https://www.bighospitality.co.uk/Article/2020/10/30/Carlsberg-and-Marston-s-merger-completes
We should get some follow up from the papers that tipped us last week on Monday. Have a nice weekend so.
I bet Tesla Man is already in the pub now thrusting is VIP membership card claiming his 20% off his bangers and mash.....that's if he qualifies with his minimal 500 share entitlement.
I agree on all points
Have a good weekend I'm off to the pub soon...
I looked for her profile and she is muted so not sure what happened to that lady. As for SP lifting, I guess filtering it through the system and also with the media still revising their wording I think we can hopefully see a gradual growth now.
It's not going to happen overnight but as we're both I guess LT in this I am in no rush, those who bought in late 50 & 60's will soon be gone too once they have the small profit
Not much sign of anything in that RNS accept JV completed. Wouldn’t have hurt to run over the details again, almost appears to be a preliminary RNS with further details to follow. Would have preferred a more detailed Monday RNS that a rushed through Friday one, maybe they saw SC’s comments and didn’t want to delay :)
YoYoMa
No sign of the bonus that was mooted by Fiona, unless I missed it.
SP trading either side of 48p on live prices 15 mins after announcement
And........
leggo
Here it is !!!!
Fairdealer, I agree and I disagree. Lol. Risk assessment is also by definition a speculative activity if you are putting your money on it. But yeah mindless ramping or deramping is not a good look.
I agree this is a ruinous path that we appear to be taking. But there are signs of light in the tunnel. Redcar are taking part in a mass test of their whole population from November. It's an experiment to see if they can find everyone who is symptomatic and asymptomatic and support them to isolate as necessary. If it works they can roll it out and we can move away from the nationwide sledgehammer to find nuts approach that we are currently engaged with. And we can start going to the pub sometimes along with other joys!
Tricky....... speculation is for Traders and there are many on these boards who ramp, de-ramp and so on.
Long term Holders, and there are many of us, are in for income and forward capital growth. The income return here was better than most investments, was being the operative word. We are now looking a forward looking plan which will return this company to the dividend list which in turn adds value to the SP. Long term holders tend to assess risk and not speculate as Traders, who are here today and gone tomorrow.
The virus does not make me personally anxious . I cannot see how an Economy can stand constant returns to lock-down and sustain the irreparable damage being created. A vaccine is still very uncertain, remember Sars was around 10 years ago and still no vaccine. The difference now with CV19 as opposed to March when it began to ravage economies, we now have treatments, not a vaccine, which are effective. The question is why continue down this ruinous course?
Of course uncertainties are the Tools of a speculator ( Trader)!!!
Cor blimey! Yoyo and Giantsquid, this is getting quite exciting! Gla all investors.
Quickest RNS delivery site I feel is this, then LSE catches up a few mins later
https://www2.trustnet.com/Investments/TNUK/LatestAnnouncements.aspx?limit=-1&pno=2264#
RNS will almost certainly be logged today if it isn't already. Signs of would be a sudden rise, MMS have to take this up soon, the current sp is significantly below where it should be once the deal completes.
Thx Giantsquid. Lovely succinct summary of the projected market cap after the Carlsberg JV is signed off. Very resonant of Nils Pratley's tip in the Guardian although you have unpacked your assumptions more transparently.
Hey Fairdealer, newsflash- all investing is speculative activity! The point is whether the speculation is rational. The market hasn't priced in the JV. The uncertainty of the virus is making us all more anxious than usual. It's waiting till it's signed off. When the announcement was first made the immediate sp response has shown us exactly what the market will do. The only risk is will it go ahead. We've been told by Carlsberg that it will go ahead. No brainer.
A valuation of £780m relies on Carlsberg retaining loan debt ( cannot see it as Carlsberg UK are purely a Brewing Company), unless the Parent is going to take over the debt?)
On the basis £230m will add to Mars NAV, until the full year accounts are published in December and we know the value of the retained Estate , it is pure speculation how high or low that value will be . If an 85% discount is correct, why has the Market not recognised?
Apart from how the JV will work through, the Whole Hospitailty sector is in turmoil because unlike previous major Economic disruptions, this one is different and uncharted waters. Company's who survive are financially strong and prepared for diversification in the Changing World we are living through.