Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Key part of the message put first on the RNS:
Resilient trading performance post reopening, pubs outperformed market*** by 7%
· Full year 2020 sales impacted by the 15-week closure of pubs from the end of March
· Q4 like-for-like sales** 90% of 2019, 7% ahead of UK pub sector***
· Guest satisfaction scores up 11% compared to pre COVID-19 levels
· Strong off-trade performance in Beer Company with volumes up 23%
Better than I thought they would be!!
On those points agree, but the writedowns and guidance around future divi policy don't read well so think might be in for a markdown this am if anything.
Ahh, the fluff! Good fluff! - read the financials!
Looks like I’ll get a re-entry point before Xmas!
A lot of numbers to consider, 2 items which standout to me...net debt £1.633billion ( will reduce in current year when the JV consideration is credited and debt on the numbers quoted will be around £1.4billion).
NAV per share drastically reduced to 50p ( was 72p last year), admitted impairments have had a dramatic effect especially the full removal of Goodwill. The company expects the NAV to increase in FY21 , by 48p, i.e to more or less 98p. This will be due to the inclusion of Carlsberg funds and some restitution of Goodwill value.
There is a lot to consider, how ever as Daave remarks positive bullet points, ambitious????
Fairdealer,
They sold 170 pubs in 2019 to put the money towards paying off debt, debts at 1.3 billion last year and 1.6 billion now, they already had 200 million from the JV which was already meant to have been applied to the debt
Sales to date this year are down by a large percentage - covids fault. Simple game of waiting for recovery, vaccine news is good but the timeframes?
Are pubs going to be open in tier 2 over Xmas? At what cost? Tier 2 costs nearly full overheads for a lot less than ‘usual’ trade.
Does that cashflow include any deposits taken for Christmas Day/week bookings? - will those be going ahead of the current tiers don’t change?
Although it looks positive for the future - has the JV already been priced in at 70p?
Deciphering the whole document is way beyond my capabilities- but the bits that stick out for me aren’t particularly positive I’m afraid.
I think the SP is probably about right - we are going to need the government to remove a lot of restrictions before Christmas to get any substantial trade over Christmas, there’s not much new information in this document, some confirmation on a couple of things that people would be assuming.
Cash burn at 3-4 million (was that a month or a week I can’t remember) - the tier change on the 16th needs to allow more pubs to open straight away.. 780 pubs currently closed!
I’m sure someone will do a breakdown better than I have the ability to soon.
One thing though, the small drop in SP today doesn’t seem to be related to the RNS data - the entire sector seems to be down by similar %
Dept to reduce from £1633 billion to £1.4 billion that’s still more than 1 million per pub !!
Dad the reduction in the current year relates to the reciept from Carlsberg (£233m) on 30th October. The figure released today are for year end 30Th September.
Daave the 3-4m is per week. The reduction in Pub Numbers assumes they are under performing and we must now be approaching Core performing Pubs, although this is debatable considering the timeline involved with the COVID restrictions and every possibilty it is going to continue into the Spring.
Daave you will know better than most, how many booking would have been made and deposited before 30th September, yr end? If as you suggest deposits were made pre 30th September, they will be included in these figures. Is the amount likely to be significant?
We can paw over these accounts and pick out positives, negatives and come to different conclusions.
Digging into to full report does reveal some threats, would we expect the company to be anything but positive?
The residual debt position is worse than I expected. Ok Goodwill has been fully discounted and will probably be revalued for the next set of figures. I always have concerns about Goodwill values, almost like thinking of a number and doubling it? That is probably a cynical way to view Goodwill but trust the meaning gets across.
Most pubs start advertising Christmas around august bank holiday, in the current climate I don’t know if there would be many people booking at that time - the Christmas booking/refunds part is probably not as substantial as I first insinuated.