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Latest quarterly report from Luca
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1592-tsx-venture/luca/159423-luca-reports-strong-production-for-q1-2024.html?utm_source=luca-mining-email-notification&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=luca-mining
Would expect to see Luca rise on the back of this…
Could do and that is just one investment in the MAFL portfolio.
Yet our entire mcap at present is just £4 million.
Scotland Yard needs to take a look to see who is manipulating the price here.
Re Luca, I also believe it has legs. Worth noting that there are three key points to the warrants:
1) We would have to buy before April 25
2) But there is also a clause that if the price exceeds $.90 for 15 days then Luca can accelerate the deadline to 30 days from that point (which is entirely possible given current climate)
3) Using the warrants would cost us £0.8m, but if their shares are worth the above clause price, that would give them a value of £1.5m.
We already have 5.7m shares, so if we take the clause share price, that would value those at £3m. So all in, our stake would be worth £4.5m GBP.
Yes, been a fantastic recovery at Luca, supported by good company news and of course the gold price.
I think it has legs too so hats off to JV for what is now looking a great investment.
MAFL share in Luca Mining worth about £1.6M at current SP. That's about 37% uplift on the investment made April last year and that doesn't include the warrants that are almost in the money... (C$0.50 until Arpil 25 2025)...
And another a bit of good news today, Luca Mining are now 50% up YTD. MAFL have a pretty significant holding in Luca...
That should reflect well in the next NAV update.
Thanks nomlungu just what I hoped to hear.
rocky,
it is good news - the improved results are from a co****r grind and a simplified flowsheet using samples from the pms zone, which will be targetted early in the project. lower costs and higher recoveries are a double win, making the potential mine significantly more valuable just at a time that the copper squeeze has started.
It seems good news today, what do people think of the RNS?
Well nobody said it was guaranteed, of course like everything it comes with risk and uncertainty. But given what we know, being a project of national interest, potential for 70% of the capex expected to be covered by a UKEF loan etc you'd be forgiven for taking a glass half full approach but I agree its always worth factoring in.
My view and point, which was missing from the discussion, is whether exercising the put option or not, there is immense value in MAFL's lagoa salgada stake. that doesn't go away if the option is not taken up.
That’s true if we knew for sure that a mine is guaranteed at some point. Then yes of course you’d rather have a larger percentage. But it’s naive to not at least acknowledge that if Ascendant defaults on the put, which means Sprott have decided not to stump up despite have millions in sunk cost already, then there is a good chance that the whole project is scrapped and no more cash ever materialises.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think that’s what will happen but to not acknowledge it as a possibility is just silly.
The put option has allowed JV to reassess and benchmark the fair price valuation of MAFL's free carry in the Lagoa Salgada project. If the put option is not exercised, we still have that free carry and I would personally expect that valuation to stay the same. Of course if we inherit the 15% from EDM to gain a full 20% free carry in Lagoa Salgada, I would expect that to be reflected in the future NAV too. I think from memory the latest NAV has a valuation of the put option with a 20% discount?
The idea of the current price being a selling opportunity if the put option isn't exercised is a glaring misunderstanding of whats going on. I would actually suggest the free carry, given the current commodity climate, is worth hanging onto. IMO the best result would be MAFL getting the 20% free carry and the put is cancelled.
But don't let me convince you, Id love another bit sub 10p with precious and Base metals soaring!
That’s correct. Otherwise, as JV said in the interview, it would probably have been flat over all … it was at the auditor’s insistence if I remember correctly
Shaz i think the NAV now includes a valuation of the put option. JV has mentioned this as one of the reasons for the uplift in NAV previously. The NAV is an assessment - one way or another of our ownership of things. Most are fairly illiquid right now and the put option ( even if JV wanted to exercise it ) might not be paid by Ascendant ( they don't have that sort of cash lying around ). How you think that affects the value currently as a discount to the NAV is your call. Maybe the situation is much clearer and different this time next year or maybe it isn't hence what Florence says.
But as Florence says if we could exercise the put option and sell the Luca mining stake as an exercise you've got a lot more than the market cap in cash.
Finely balanced?
I hope not.
Last Nav over 25p v current 11p share price and that’s without the put.
To be honest thinker I wouldn’t expect it to due to the obvious doubt in the market about the materialisation of the put option. Today’s price is quite finely balanced. If you don’t think the put option will happen then it’s a decent selling opportunity. If you think the put money is imminent then it’s a great buying opportunity.
Add to this booming gold/silver and other metal prices.
Great news! I expect MAFL sp to shoot up on the back of this!
JVs investment that should say
Luca mining has doubled in the last 5 weeks such that it now represents 20%+ profits on Jobs investment and that doesn’t include the warrants.
If we sold that and realised the 5-6m from the put option we’d have a 50%+ cash premium to today’s market cap by year end.
Then add whatever value you like to the other equity holdings, ideon stake, golden sun and the potential for a positive negotiation with the Portuguese government.
Whichever way you look at it we are now selling at 60% discount to a NAV that has consistently risen over the years
I’m not sure I agree re larger sell order. I can sell 100k in one go at 9.6p through HL without issue. For a micro cap that’s alright liquidity imo. Ask has also ticked up with my buy.
Interim results soon could be a turning point for some more liquidity and interest entering.
It could keep going lower as you say, but historically this area has provided strong support. I’ll be buying more if it keeps dropping with a long term view of holding. This could easily bag on the EDM outcome imo.
I am / was tempted but the MMs have more shares available than I have spare cash in my HL stocks and shares ISA. And, where have they got the shares to sell at this price from? There seems to be a delayed sell... how many and at what price? Will that expected sell spark more sells? Will the MMs drop the price even further to get rid of the shares?
And, they will not offer me a live price to sell.
Yep me too. The 45k is mine.
I'm buying sub 10p. Into seriously cheap territory