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Started: William123, 28 May 2024 07:48
Last post: William123, 17 Jun 2024 11:32
I was adding up to results. But Chairman's share sales are difficult to understand unless he really needed the money which again isn't the best. I am calming down and trade sites are still far happier with Likewise. Might hold off until slight upturn in price.
Tbf i would like to lower my average at 10p and i might even do at 14-15p will have u been topping up on lows ?
I would love to buy at 10p! Everything going in the right direction in what are obviously challenging markets so looking good for the return to demand.
Consolidation in building companies, new government spend and interest rates look like catalysts. Brewer share sales were a small part of his holding and assurance not to sell more could be accepted on their own, Chairman's sale book ending the results looks like they are heading for the doors but I don't think so. Trouble is I think it is at least another 12 months of better news and results before anyone can make a judgement.
Could drop to 10p way things are going , strange timing of directors sells has not help one bit
About 2 weeks ago there was a very positive trading update and now the chairman disposes of nearly half of his shares when the price is at about it's lowest. Unless an explanation can be given can only assume bad news on the horizon
Started: Madtom, 20 May 2024 08:19
Last post: luxs, 20 May 2024 09:14
Polar difference from headlums end of year this will not be good news for them
Very positive results considering market conditions.
Clearly outperforming their closest competitors.
Great news for shareholders on the dividend too.
Started: luxs, 18 May 2024 10:23
Last post: William123, 18 May 2024 12:20
Estimates are for £140m. I hope for nearer to £150m revenue
Looking forward to Mondays full year results i expect it to show bigger growth getting close to first target of 200 million sales
Started: luxs, 16 May 2024 07:53
Last post: William123, 16 May 2024 14:24
Victoria share price collapse is more to do with stalling growth while holding massive amounts of debt. Victoria bonds will need replacing 2026 and obviously rates staying higher for longer is not going to help.
Wishful thinking. The market is flat. Take a look at Victoria’s share price. Major player struggling to get above £2. Down from £7.90.
I think Mondays full year results will be very positive, not only have they imo taken larger market share it will show real growth. which will be the polar opposite of headlum announcement this week blaming decline in floor covering market
Started: William123, 14 May 2024 11:15
Last post: Lammtarra, 15 May 2024 19:56
Yes Headlam
"That’s what happens when you annoy vast swathes of your core customers - they go elsewhere!"
Are you referring to Headlam?
Interested to see what the results look like for Likewise on Monday.
That’s what happens when you annoy vast swathes of your core customers - they go elsewhere!
There is such ill feeling towards them it’s unbelievable so these kinds of updates were always going to happen.
They look like they’ve got further to fall. I know they’re trading less than book value but they’ve got current debt of £43m (£36.5m) and are betting on an improving second half. If that doesn’t happens, they’ll be back to having to increase debt. It’s never a good sign when you’re using debt to pay interest on debt.
Fall today is due to Headlam profit warning
Started: 1Carpetman, 30 Apr 2024 12:02
Last post: 1Carpetman, 30 Apr 2024 12:02
"If the company is doing so well why does the share price not reflect that?" is what I said. I wouldn't invest in them because I doubt that until market conditions improve, and interest rates fall, I suspect that you may see 20p will by the end of the year.
Its a weak buy but there is maybe a penny or two in them.
Started: 1Carpetman, 29 Apr 2024 12:47
Last post: William123, 29 Apr 2024 17:42
I would like to hear more about Headlam and Likewise on Likewise discussion board. If they are or have worked for them all the better. They are more likely to have information I couldn't find.
Sorry I don't understand you mentioned the company is doing well but the price isn't (must be Likewise)then you go on to imply you wouldn't invest in them yet you have flagged them as a weak buy?
Why the obsession with Headlam? Too many of us caught a cold investing in them. All the posts seem to come from likewise employee. If the company is doing so well why does the share price not reflect that. Invested else are and fortunately recovered my losses. I wouldn’t go back in again.
Started: Lammtarra, 25 Apr 2024 10:17
Last post: MrT220, 26 Apr 2024 15:40
Agreed - Likewise can’t lose against Headlam currently. Their approach to the market is changing and bolstering our position with the trade.
Watch out for an RNS on Monday from Headlam announcing huge share packages for Chris Payne and others. At the same time all of their representatives are being hauled into head office, whereby rumour has it 35 will lose their jobs.
I am as sure as I can be. Assets backing up the balance sheet is also helping sleeping at night while waiting. I think quite a few flooring retailers jumped into the shares at the beginning who knew the team but not so much the stock market and have grown impatient/fearful and pulled out. All I can say is I am great full to be buying at these levels and can't wait for that dividend to grow.
Thanks for your thoughts William..
As far as I’m concerned, Likewise are an absolute no brainer for making a success of it. Having worked for AJB previously and now putting most of my business their way, I’m doing all I can to help in any way possible.
This coupled with Headlam being run by clowns puts us in good stead and over time it’ll bear fruit hopefully
Perfectly reasonable question. A few things I would say.
Many don't like newly listed companies until they can see a good few years " clean listed results "
Few people will of heard of Likewise let alone know what makes them so good.
Headlam group which is the only comparison has performed awfully lately so people might think it's the trade not Headlam that is so bad.
Likewise has been growing aggressively to reach £200m turnover so reinvesting in growth instead of concentrating on paying out. I think Scotland division last comment allowed for expansion in warehouse of 90%.
I believe it is just a matter of time before market catches up and that is why this remains my largest holding.
Can somebody shed light on this please because I’ve no idea how or why this is happening but I assume some of you will?
I’m talking generally here. I’m not talking about specific dates or specific share prices just in general but the question is - how can a company Start with a share price of 20p, achieve several short term objectives, grow in size and in Profitability and 5 years later have a share price of 16p - How on earth is this possible?
I’ve wondered for ages how a company can be on the up but the share price on the way down at the same time. It makes absolutely no sense to me?
It begs the question to my mind, What does the company have to do to get a share price of 50p for instance? If they are doing everything right at the moment and are clearly on the right path while the share price is going backwards what do they need to do to get the share price moving forwards?
I don’t know if this is a common occurrence or not or Whether I’m just jinxed? Any insight or opinions would be appreciated 👍
Started: William123, 20 Apr 2024 12:55
Last post: William123, 20 Apr 2024 12:55
It is worth taking a look at the Headlam Facebook Post yesterday. Likewise Group got more support on it than Headlam.
May 14th for next update.
Started: Moneymule888, 4 Mar 2024 09:35
Last post: Boardlord1977, 17 Apr 2024 17:06
👍
Tony Judge
Retirement , to the best of my knowledge.
Madtom I see Tony Judge did leave at the end of March resigning from both Delta and Valley 29th March. Any idea on reason?
That makes more sense BoardLord. Tony and Roy are still very much in the company for the rest of March. I can’t see either of them giving up their retirement fund for 20p a share.
Much more likely a staff member cashing in their sharesave.
Still plenty coming from these guys!
There was a 5 yr SAYE (10p) end on 29/02 would that have anything to do with the recent large sales?
Started: Newtoitall, 14 Mar 2024 11:11
Last post: luxs, 21 Mar 2024 11:09
118K of shares sold drop of 7% prob directors sale
Many shares have good news that isn't reflected in the price at the moment. That can been seen in upsurge of take over activity.
A few of us on here can see at first hand the ground work being done at Likewise and how they have so quickly taken a decent market position. The good news doesn't instantly translate to bottom line but it will.
Growth looks set to continue with 11 sales executives and debt is well under control. These figures don't make sense when you have a comparison like Headlam that had much lower P/E over the last few years. This on a rolling basis has now reversed.
Owners have a lot of skin in the game which tends to look at the longer term and not instant gratification with gimmicks again leading to the future.
I always see good news here and I’m new to this, can anyone explain why this good news isn’t reflected in the SP?
Started: MrT220, 13 Mar 2024 14:30
Last post: MrT220, 13 Mar 2024 14:31
It’s on research tree
little research note here - https://*********************/media/audio-note-likewise-sales-ahead-of-prior-year-despite-weak-markets-13-03-2024/id/20358/c887d847-09f7-4019-bfaa-b7c2dbab64bf
Started: Cooperman21, 11 Mar 2024 19:52
Last post: Cooperman21, 11 Mar 2024 19:52
Admittedly I do not know to what level of employee the bonus is being paid but hopefully to all levels and they come as a welcome surprise .
Started: Cooperman21, 9 Mar 2024 11:41
Last post: Boardlord1977, 11 Mar 2024 18:56
Being an employee I look forward to recieving it, however as of yet, no mention internally :(
I saw the Tony brewer shares sales and thought ffs ! Headlam posted poor results and we do this !,,, however I have it on good authority that Tony sold the shares so he could give all his employees a bonus whilst not affecting likewise numbers . A great gesture and the reason why he has been able to build such a strong team that will continue its path of increased revenue and market capture
Your correct as the trade counters imhv to cut out the retailer in many avenues, headlum claimed that they would only be supplying the trade and the flooring trade only not decorators, plumbers and handy men they where found out badly sending open emails of new trade counters, but c/c estate agents, decorators, plumbers, business owners in general basically cutting out the middle man the retailers that imv made headlum the size they are now
Luxs, Willam123, thanks for your replies.
It looks like the segment I’m ignoring is the ‘sales direct from manufacturers’.
I now see this as a segment that isn’t available to the Likewise business model; which is distribution to traditional retail.
In Headlam’s update they described a spectrum of market opportunity running from traditional retail through, tradespeople & fitters, contractors to the larger sector of multiple retailers and larger housebuilders.
lux’s, I believe you operate in the retail sector, and I remember you expressing frustration with Headlam’s move into trade counters. Therefore, would I be right in thinking the trade counters are competing against you for the tradespeople & fitters and contractors segments?
Also, would I be right in thinking that very few homeowners would use trade counters and attempt to fit the carpet themselves?
Presumably, Likewise has no plans to go the trade counter route?
Likewise has a medium-term target of £200m revenue. Given the current proportion of own-brand (68%) that represents £135m of own-brand revenue. I guess looking at it this way that level of supply is possible from non-branded manufacturers.
Incidentally, at the growth rate, YTD, that’s a 3-4 year timescale for £200m.
Axminster and other higher end flooring will be distributed directly from the manufacturer. Wholesale takes the mass market trade also selling levelling compounds, vinyl, commercial safety flooring Lvt etc. This obviously needs scale to run daily deliveries. Hence if you loose volume drastically and still need to support that amount of infrastructure it could implode without drastically change.
Own brand will normally be bought at better prices because of scale and possibly exclusive. It will be protected to some degree as customer looking in shops find a sample they like will ask for comparison prices from other retailers for that particular product from Likewise Grp driving sales back to them.
Ax minster products dont get sold by wholesale thats kept at manufactures sales direct to retailers this is not the market likewise will ever get. again amtico wont ever be sold by a wholesaler only direct from amtico. carpet manufactures such as cormar, Abingdon, balta , sell ranges direct accounts and too wholesale however own brand likewise are commissioning by carpet manufactures in turkey , Holland ect
Thanks luxs, I wasn't clear in my query.
If you aim to be a larger distributor of carpets within the UK market, can you do that by largely focusing on own brand?
I'd guess many distributors has an own brand product, presumably targeting the discount end of the market, but I'd have thought that the majority of carpet sales are of the traditional manufacture brands e.g. Axminster - that's the limit of my knowledge on such brands. Or are the majority of UK sales own brands from the likes of Carpetright or Tapi?
Started: Newtoitall, 5 Mar 2024 17:41
Last post: Moneymule888, 5 Mar 2024 19:55
Or it could be that just like everyone, even directors are feeling the squeeze and need cash for expenses/mortgages/school fees/building works etc.
Thank you that makes sense
Roy Povey did the same last year. Like for tax reasons? Still holds over 27million so this was a tiny reduction
Any thoughts on Tony Brewer disposing of shares today?
Last post: jake1953, 2 Mar 2024 10:12
Mr Waldron built headlam,tony Brewer learned from him,but waldron was the builder ,headlam was duilt to get rid of MCD which they did very well but take it from me they are not the same team now.
100% agree with you moneymule, tony brewer made headlum what they was . and he has personal ambition to crush them
Yes, plenty of natural growth to take from trade competition but not just Headlam.
And also , plenty of motivation from within Likewise to make this a big success.
He doesn’t understand the scenario at play. Likewise grow regardless of whether UK economy does well, for now. Headlam is getting killed by the king who was kicked out of his palace. DYOR
We are not worried about headlum as you put it, they are the business that likewise are hoping to and i believe e doing so eating into there market share and doing this is key to hitting short term target of 200 million revenue
Why is everyone worried about Headlam? Business is very poor at the moment and I am sure both Likewise and Headlam are suffering.
Started: MrT220, 8 Feb 2024 09:59
Last post: luxs, 26 Feb 2024 14:03
This will be interesting as there pr for January was shocking with the range partnership
March 5th Headlam full year results due for release.
*be *pension
Mrt if we hit dissy heights of £5-6 me very nice pention top up for me
There now asking the questions because turnover is massively down on like for like excuse the pun and likewise are now taking more market share much quicker that expected
Started: Madtom, 17 Jan 2024 07:25
Last post: luxs, 17 Jan 2024 12:39
I missed the rns lol
I think the Delta purchase has the same structure although a much smaller amount.
Yes that’s the deal complete. We can move on now with only the economy holding us back
Is this in relation to the 5 million shares as part of the valley deal being £1 a share or they make up the diffrence in cash ,
Great !!
Now that that is settled, it removes the only perceived negative hanging over this share.
Hopefully, the chains are off and they can gradually grow the SP.
Started: Madtom, 4 Jan 2024 16:31
Last post: Madtom, 15 Jan 2024 16:51
That was from Friday pm & looking at the price it’s almost certainly a buy.
Nice to see such confidence.
To be fair it says unknown Could been a sell, and by the look of the end of day it was a sell ??
Someone still confident with that £49k buy earlier.
They must have got in low i guess im still waiting to break even on launch
Always profit taking luxs when a share price moves up. At least it has settled at 22p currently.
Started: MrT220, 19 Dec 2023 13:07
Last post: Adelaide23, 4 Jan 2024 11:50
I agree with you MrT220. Likewise is in its infancy doesn’t happen over night. They have carefully built the infrastructure and now to take More of that multi billion pound industry.
I’m sure those that bought on the lows 17p will take a quick buck but for serious investing this company is only going to get bigger.
They would me mad to get out. Timing for likewise has been against them with the world the way it is.
Plenty more to come out of this - it’s grown so much since the highs of 52p. Once the valley deal is out the way there’s nothing holding us back.
We finally get some action been a long time waiting, think there be a fair few getting out close to purchase price on launch
A very good listen for an insight into the Likewise journey so far & the short to mid term trajectory of the business. This interview/chat with TB and an independent investor gives me great belief in my investment here.
Started: Madtom, 6 Dec 2023 09:50
Last post: luxs, 11 Dec 2023 16:25
True i would believe there comined market share 30-35%
Hi luks, thanks for your reply. Interesting to get your perspective.
I can see that trade counters blur the line between Headlam’s distribution model and retail, so I can understand the distaste of traditional retail.
The activities of Jason Maguire in the sector are also interesting and provide additional insight into the competition for both Headlam and Likewise. I understand his group operates as Connection Retail. I’ll investigate this further.
In a previous post I commented that the two quoted companies might account for 50%-60% of the distribution business but another look at the numbers suggests this might be closer to 40%, which implies a 60% share across many smaller businesses, such as Connection Retail.
Given this level of competition and I assume overlap, I still wonder at the extent and reasons for your business relationship with Likewise, given the issues you’ve expressed – leaving aside any investor interest.
I guess bulk/volume of the product versus value means that the product doesn’t move far from the cutting table to the final installation, so competition largely occurs at a local level.
What prompts you to use Likewise rather than another distributor? Is it payment terms, product offering, or something else?
Is there a local alternative to Likewise or Headlam?
(I was going to say, Flooring Superstore, but I wonder if they are retail rather than distribution.)
Thanks for your post
firstly i need to state i persist due to being somewhat down on my investment from ipo,
stockest is a good publication as has many updates from national retailers and wholesalers
we in the trade had a booming time through the pandemic so much so most in the trade knocked socks off the like for likes. this year tho not terrible naturally the figures are down , people can freely travel many gone back to the work place .
hedlum have really taken a hit from likewise due to there poor support to bricks and mortar flooring retailers speaking of there distaste of hedlums business plan opening many trade counters open to public and other trades such as decorators plumbers general builders trying to cut out the retailer within the trade look at the share price over the last 18-24 months it has lost lots of ground
floorwise ,kellers,flooring superstore, grass direct, franks flooring store , are all owned by the same group, headed by its founder Jason Maguire they now get many of there products made for them exclusively via europe, and asia this group are growing rapidly and really hitting hedlum badly
Hi luxs,
I was impressed by your knowledge of Valley Group operations, so I looked at your earlier posts.
Clearly, you are in the trade, and I thought to ask for any publications you’d recommend for an investor in the sector.
But first, I had a look and came across ‘The Stockists’. Much of it is advertising but I saw a couple of sections of interest to me, a piece on wholesaling and business news.
A takeaway is that there are many different sectors operating within the distribution chain, which I’d define as between the manufactured flooring product to installation. The two listed companies I’m aware of, are Likewise and Headlam, who act between the manufacturers and retail venues or independent fitters, with each operating on gross margins of c. 30%.
The listed companies account for 50-60% of the UK market with private companies accounting for the balance, including Kellars, Floorwise, Carpet Line Direct and independent trader cooperatives like the Independent Flooring Group.
The numbers from the business news section are interesting but confusing to me. Oct trading is described as 16% down on last month, Sept, but only 0.9% down on last Oct. This is revenue based rather than volume.
The ONS has floorcovering inflation 7.7% YTD. HMRC has carpet imports into UK down 6.2% YTD. I know I’m not exactly comparing ‘apples with apples’, but that suggests a volume reduction of c. 14%.
There seems to be a mismatch between trading down only 0.9% Oct (YoY revenues) and the HMRC imports down 6.2% YTD. Perhaps the Oct month is an outlier.
luxs, I’d be interested in your critique of my summarization.
Also, looking at your recent comments on Likewise, these jumped out at me. “I would like to use them more but again and again can’t help to pull my hair out”; “improvements needed in basics stock levels, adequate p.o.s. (?)”; “sampling is poor”.
Given competition in business why do you persist with Likewise? Is it an account benefit, their regional dominance, specific product offering, or something else?
I would appreciate any reply. Thanks, in anticipation.
*For the record, I’ve been in and out of Headlam as an investor several times over the years. I’ve been monitoring Likewise since they came to the AIM market, but my current concerns are around their balance sheet, as indicated in my earlier posts. On the HBR board I have commented on Likewise several months (years?) back – favourably as I recall.
Interesting.
Started: Madtom, 21 Nov 2023 11:45
Last post: luxs, 30 Nov 2023 12:10
Do you mean a shop presence yes we do
Luxs - I get it !!
I get as frustrated as you at times, as I’m invested.
But I do believe in the strategy of growth and general direction of the company. The economy is a major hindrance and that will change over time.
Patience is required here, however the updates keep me positive.
As for the POS/Sampling issue you experience - are you a ‘trade counter ‘ customer or do you have a designated sales representative to liaise with. ?
Its not so much what the sales increase in the last update, more what it could have been better if better if pos stronger in many cases
Madtom i have in excess of 140k shares in likewise still running at loss, and I've spoken to tb many times of my frustration with poor pos in lvt for intence. i would like to use them more but again and again cant help to pull my hair out
Well for sure well my friend in chester has three showrooms and a large online flooring business yet he has only been given one lvt sample book for three shops think about that
Started: MrT220, 10 Nov 2023 14:53
Last post: MrT220, 10 Nov 2023 14:53
Not sure why it’s bleeped out but there’s a new interview with Tony Brewer on Directors talk interviews