London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I live outside the UK. Does anyone here have a view on what impact a Labour government might have on the UK stock market?
In general the stock market operates slightly in favour of a Labour government.
I have another £5k waiting in the wings, looks like I will soon find an acceptable price offer for this share.
6 weeks of uncertainty - markets hate uncertainty - good opportunities will arise - patience is the name of the game.
Not sure if it is always included, but the AGM agenda included the right to purchase their own shares - maybe the June update will include a buyback plan - they have plenty of surplus capital.
Walkersworld, on what basis do you say that? Labour government good for stock market?
Still got this years isa allowance sitting in the wings ready for action, who doesnt love a bit of uncertainty
Thronegames. Walkersworld is correct. DYOR if you don't believe him.
It's all about investment. Labour do it and the torys don't (a glance at the state of the roads tells you that much). It's why the torys always accuse Labour of leaving the coffers dry, when the reality is they've spent it way more wisely on what's needed and not tax cuts.
(If anyone disagrees with that, please don't bother, as I'm not interested and won't answer. I just expanded on something factual and added my opinion).
As for buybacks, I've never seen them do much apart for the SP apart from increase the EPS, which makes the KPIs look better and probably benefits the BOD more than anyone.
Anon3, i agree, but a lot people on these boards are stinking rich, and want to avoid paying tax, probably the wrong place for politics, but the majority will decide
Robleo - Unfortunately, the freezing of the income tax allowance, the reduction of the tax free dividend allowance from £5k to £0.5k and the cgt allowance being reduced from £12.5k to £3k have pushed me in the direction of looking at reducing the amount of tax I pay.
I've happily paid income tax and never really considered other options. However, because of the points listed above, i'm now stopping drawing down from my workplace pension as I'm taxed at 20% (I recieve the state pension) and I'll simply sell down investments that sit outside of my isa and pay cgt, if needed, on the profits at 8.75%.
And thereby lies the problem. The more governments' increase taxes, the more people will look for legitimate ways to reduce their tax burden. Higher taxes can result in a reduction of tax taken.
Correction, cgt is levied at 10% it's dividends that are subject to 8.75% tax above tax threshold for a basic rate tax payer
Zac, i'm not condemning anyone for it, just saying the big earners will probably vote for the party they think will tax them the least, whether that's the best thing for the country is another argument, personally i have worked hard and paid taxes all my life, not everyone's the same, not everyone wants to work
As a newbie here looking to invest I would just like to say that it's refreshing to read polite, informative posts so thank you. My take on the election impact is that uncertainty is certainly the key & as soon as there is some, i.e. regular polls showing a massive Labour lead (probably) this will do the market some good. Until then uncertainty & fluctuating share prices.
If you buy your shares in an isa account tax on divided is not an issue as there is no limit
Csn is better for dividend than lgen both are pretty much safe.
I can be as critical as anyone regarding LGEN performance. However, as a longterm investment it tends to deliver a positive total return ie +13% over the last year and +39% over 5 years. CSN has delivered a negative total return over the same periods of -5% and -2%. Too many people are seduced by the promise of a high dividend yield in isolation of total return.
My best returns come from funds. The L&G International Index Trust has delivered +21% and +80% over the same periods. A simple global equity tracker fund. Well diversified, less risk, better results.
Morning all & good morning Zac
Zac, May I ask how you’ve arrived at the 39% over five years please? If you care to elaborate
Crossley,
To ballpark it, if you assume the price hasn't moved in five years ~ which is about right ~ then reinvesting fiveyears of div at yields of 6.2%, 6.8%, 7.1%, 7.4% and 7.8% leaves you with a 40.6% gain.
Whereas, if you take the figures the scribblers have given and then assume 2.5% a year div growth thereafter, by my calculation, you get the next five years' yields of: 8.2%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 9.6% and 9.8%.
Which, assuming no price movement (and I'm invested here on the basis that that's maybe all they might do?) you get a start to finish gain of 54%.
Though, if they achieve those levels of div, then I'm imagining that, at some point, that bipolar nutter Mr Market might well take notice..?
Strictly
Zac, I cannot find L&G International Index Trust on here when I search under Legal. What is the ticker?
Crossley - 39% is the total return achieved over the 5 year period with dividends reinvested
Drew57 - type GB00BG0QP604 into google. That should find it.
Strictly, even using your calculations it's still less than the total return from a basic international fund, most of my funds have returned around 80% in the last 5 years, i'm not suggesting anyone sells up their shares, but i would recommend to anyone to add some funds into their portfolio, as well as some good divi shares like lgen/aviva/mng/psn etc.
just my opinion of course
I think it’s more than fair to say that funds have had a good run over the last 5 years. Nvidia has contributed vastly to the global gains. When your sat at home twiddling your thumbs and if you are old enough to remember the dot com crash, it sticks in your mind that the incessant belief that AI will be a game changer, and monetised, and that at present is unknown, you have reservations, doubts. Seeing as tech has been such a large driver of these funds and gains, a rational approach is how can it continue ?!
I’ve been investing to the extent that at some stage the bubble would burst, and value would return. I sit here questioning my strategy, that’s what makes a market I guess .
Something to think about
Hi, Finley1, i'm afraid nothing is guaranteed in this world and most definitely not in the stock market, i currently have a 50/50 split between international funds and UK dividend shares, have i diversified enough to protect my investments? i really don't know only time will tell how it all works out, everyone has their own ideas, some buy and hold others sell before exdiv and take profits, but best of luck to you all whatever your strategy, we are all taking a chance hoping we can get a better return than we would get in a savings account
“Strictly, even using your calculations it's still less than the total return from a basic international fund, most of my funds have returned around 80% in the last 5 years, i'm not suggesting anyone sells up their shares, but i would recommend to anyone to add some funds into their portfolio, as well as some good divi shares like lgen/aviva/mng/psn etc.”
...........................
Robleo,
I appreciate you’re likely making that comment in my perceived best interests and, if so, thanks for your concern.
However, I have been in this investing malarkey a long time now, and that includes having called it well wrong, & with leveraged money, in 2007/8 to the extent that I had to sell up and buy a smaller house rather than sell shares at seriously depressed prices.
In 2008, it would have been the equivalent of flogging fivers for a quid.
However, from the start of 2009 to date, it has been much different, as from that point to date I have compounded at an average annual 25% ~ which, as you might imagine if you’re familiar with how that goes, was somewhat beyond my expectations.
...! :-)
Within that, I have been prepared to be invested 100% in a single share on occasion ~ always in house builders ~ and I appreciate from previous comments that this would likely make you shudde...?
However, within the above, since the start of 2018, returns have been much thinner, and I have only compounded annually at 7.5%, and I have very recently largely sidestepped house builder shares while waiting to see how they come through a seemingly ongoing serious of headwinds.
I’m happy to use the scribblers' projections for EPS for this and they have reduced Bellway’s EPS forecast for 2024 by nearly three quarters since 11/11/21 ~ when it was 422p ~ compared to currently being 119p.
Even by 2006, the forecast BWY EPS is only currently 208p, an ROE equivalent of only 7% compared to their long term average ROE of around 16%.
This is not good, IMO.
Hence currently I'm holding mostly LGEN, PHNX & MNG as well as some BWY.
Strictly
PS
There were a couple of typos in my previous comment...
That should have said "shudder" not "shudde"
And it should have been "series of headwinds" not "serious of headwinds".
Even though they have been pretty serious...!
Strictly