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Thanks for the responses chaps. I am reliably informed that you only derisk before a drill result on a binary play. Here we have 6 more bites of the cherry so you have to tough it out until the end
Or if you have balls of steel top up after each duster
I am due some good fortune. I hope it comes here
Gl all
I am near certain that after 7-wells this will eventually come good. However : it would be great if Egyptian Vulture comes up as an early strike - then we can all relax. If not it will be case of closing eyes and strapping in for the remainder of the ride.
Who knows - only those who are selling! Obviously it’s a bit unnerving when the share price is dropping when well results are expected, especially when there are chunky sells as well. But it could be for any reason as you’ve both said, and we just have to wait for official news. Day 30ish now of Egyptian Vulture.
If that's the case then I am in the same boat! I've not got so many of these that there's a lot of point in derisking until I have any of gains to derisk.
I'd be surprised if there's any real insider trading here, because at the end of the day there probably wasn't with the first drill, by the look of things, just Sneller buying.
Now he might be selling again, but he'd be at breakeven at best on that if that's the case.
I think this volume is just generic churn that happens to sit on the bid rather than the ask. Personally, I think all we can do is wait.
Fingers crossed!
I believe it’s normal for investors to sell and derisk some of their holding just before drill results. I don’t have enough to contemplate that action. So I am sitting tight and if all 7 are dusters will probably be diluted to death with another raise
Others with a better plan please share
I can see where you're coming from, but the free float is only about 31% before you factor in large holders under the TR1 level.
I'd say we're not that liquid a stock (particularly for the size of the market cap) on the basis that historically and post placing you often cannot get single click liquidity in large size. It has to be a special day for me to be able to deal 30k shares in one hit and usually the taps turn off for me at 15k or above.
Keep the faith, friends. Insider trading is a myth designed to scare private investors at bedtime :) Whatever happens to the share price over the coming weeks will not be a result of insider trading.
Yes today’s trading is a little ominous. I guess we will find out soon enough if it’s inside knowledge that drove it.
TBF, Sid, with that 50k trade you maybe have a point.
It would be a shame if it was somebody in the know selling. They could be in the zone now so who knows. I really feel like they need a strong commercial discovery at either Egyptian Vulture or Mugnetind now though.
TBH, because the stock isn't that liquid it may just be a few sellers have all chased eachother.
Certainly, it doesn't take that much to push the price either way at the moment.
Looks like there must be an aggregated sell going through. Possibly somebody just good with the timings again?
I would tend to agree with those valuations. COS is around 25% if i remember so a 1 in 4 chance of a hit. hoping the data interpretation is as good as they think, its in an area the mgmt know well so wouldn't have bought in without some sort of hope this is linked to previous discovery areas. Cant imagine at 25% COS anything is valued in.
Of course if it comes in higher or lower than that, I'd adjust either-way. At the top end you're looking at more like 160p/share at the $4/boe figure, so it has the potential to be a massive uplift. Equally, if it's completely dry I can\t imagine the market will be too happy, but I'm not that convinced there's a lot of Egyptian Vulture priced in, but we'll see.
Well, I've always used the firm's $4/boe figure (although they say transactions are occurring above that now on the Norwegian Continental Shelf):
Chance of success: 25%
LBE interest: 15%
Gross mean resource: 103mmboe
Upside to 208mmboe
So at the gross mean resource, that's: (15%*103)*$4 =$61.8m, or £44.83m, which is 78.86p/share.
Hypothetically speaking if Egyptian vulture is a success and everything proves to be good/ as expected how much do people think it’s worth to lbe?
I actually have no idea how long each stage of the drilling process takes, but I suppose four weeks will be if everything is bang on time and running to schedule, which seems unlikely, only because rarely in life does everything tick over perfectly.
I just hope we actually find some hydrocarbons, because this is undoubtedly the well the price will be most geared to in this year's campaign.
A short interesting read about Egyptian Vulture:
https://expronews.com/wells/egyptian-vulture-another-interesting-cretaceous-play-test/
For some reason I always associate an early RNS with negative news but who knows. Let's wait and see.
Sometimes maybe but that’s not always the case - Equinor’s Black Vulture well before this one overran by 3-4 weeks and was dry.
A very long drill can also sometimes be a sign they’ve had downhole/formation problems.
I think we just have to wait for the results to be honest.
Hi guys. Would i be right in saying the longer the drill goes on for the more likely the drill has hit some oil and gas. Apart from any delays of course.