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Started: LTbeliever, Today 06:42
Last post: LTbeliever, Today 06:42
FWIW, this is an OLD link from 2021, re a post by a RoC MInistry about signing on a Saturday; note that Brazaville is on London time, so an RNS could land after 7am (eg if they sign on a Monday morning).
https://www.finances.gouv.cg/en/articles/mining-agreement-signed-congo
Remember, the Chinese need to fly to RoC, see the Minister/s etc, and I am sure the RoC Government will want to "milk" the signing, so it will probably be a big ceremony; thus IMO, the delay is due either to the need to coordinate all these people (Chinese delegation, RoC Ministers etc), OR the Chairman is still negotiating the EPC terms with the Chinese; given the mkt reaction after the China trip in mid-May (positive), IMO the delay is due to the first reason (ceremony et al).
GLA
Started: Howardzzz, 19 Jun 2024 15:20
Last post: LTbeliever, 21 Jun 2024 15:05
IMO, no need to worry about that - just need to look at the trades, which will probably be in advance of the RNS.
Unlikely that any ground-breaking announcement would be made right at the end of a quarter? The can is much more likely to be kicked further down the road. Maybe we have always just been chasing shadows. Godot never existed after all.
I am expecting that a $ 10 million investment and 15 months delay will get us significant design improvements and cost savings.
RNS - 31 March 2023
"PowerChina's review has generated a number of potential design improvements to the project that identify opportunities to further reduce the capital cost and the construction schedule. Discussions on incorporating these design improvements into the EPC contract continue."
I'll take that too (July 1st)!
True, but they could sign the following w/e (in Q2) and issue the RNS on 1st July !
Started: Nesnoor, 18 Jun 2024 13:23
Last post: Nesnoor, 18 Jun 2024 13:23
Just did a dummy buy and got quoted 1.845 so that 1 million is actually a buy not a sell. The 1.5m one though seems to be a sell.
Started: LTbeliever, 17 Jun 2024 18:33
Last post: 99icecream, 18 Jun 2024 09:17
For me the contract will be signed at some point soon. Both sides have been committed since the Revised agreement with SEPCO (8/8/2023). The more interesting question is what we will get in this new EPC. IMHO there are two key aspects:-
Firstly, what comes next? When Potash prices were higher there was talk about DX following Kola. DX, as currently planned, has a negative NPV at current Potash prices. I suspect that we might get a phase 2 planned at Kola where (Potash prices permitting) the project scale goes up to 4 M/T per annum after additional CapEx (like Jansen). A phase 2 project could add 80% of phase 1's NPV.
Secondly, what are the significant changes to the mining plan and how much improvement in NPV is achieved? There are many possibilities here, for example:
Will the technology change significantly (from underground mining to directional drilling for example)?
What will be mined? In the original plan only the Sylvanite is mined at Kola. Will the new plan mine the Carnallite also?
Just speculating here, but this is my theory; EPC submitted by Chinese on Feb 6th; KP2 said they needed to April end to get it signed; this meant - to me- that the Co needed time to review the numbers, the clauses, negotiate these with PChina etc; therefore, control of the signing is with KP2, right? if it had accepted all the Chinese had stipulated, EPC would have been signed by now. So, some conclusions:
1. delay is just due to KP2 trying to negotiate the best EPC possible, for itself;
2. therefore, insiders know how these negotiations are going; SP rising from May 13th coincided with the trip to China (or roundabout there), meaning that some insider info trickled out and made some jump a bit early into buying, maybe hoping that the EPC would have been concluded soon after.
3. no serious selling means all who got on board expect something big;
4. very likely that the next leg up will be when the Chairman is on his way to the Ministry to sign i.e. before the RNS!
DYOR
Last post: Y00020978, 17 Jun 2024 14:15
I know how valuable it will be, but also appreciate how long these things take to get over the line.
But for perspective, If you're buying a house that you're going to live in for 30 years.....if the legalities around completing the purchase are delayed by a few months, you won't care once you've finally moved in and nor will it impact the value of the house you've purchased.
We know PowerChina have paid $10m of their own money to progress the EPC.....if they weren't serious about the project they wouldn't have done that. It's just a matter of when not if in my opinion. A bit more patience required and we will have lift off.
Y00020978 - You are I guess one of the few who understand how big this could be!
IMO, this time it's different; EPC is close and Performance Guarantees have been added, New Management in place, we had already the Optimisation Study (USD1.6bln), it's a big amount and China is not booming as in the past, the war in Ukraine is concentrating minds (and pockets) and the Chinese paid already 10mln for the pre-works (finished in December). Mgt flew to China 1 month ago to speed things up and the Minister is very quiet - all seem to indicate signing in the near term.
Waiting for lotto!
GLA
Haha - no just the agreement of a multi hundred million pound contract.....these things take time to get full legal agreement :)
But when it does all shareholders here who bought at these levels will be greatly rewarded.
Good luck all
Started: LTbeliever, 16 Jun 2024 10:56
Last post: Barravelli, 17 Jun 2024 10:29
@Howardzzz I'm thinking same last time it rose like this is when I bought in a few years ago at 1.5p then the tumbled back down after EPC was delayed.
Hopefully, the leak will be potash-enriched rather than sewage-enriched!
I think you will know it is coming when the buying starts again. This project is as leaky as Thames Water.
Howardzz, one day it won't be - pushed back :)
We will know next week, either way IMO (koz a push back has to be also announced b4 Q2 end);
As long as the Minister is quiet, I am optimistic; maybe he's busy preparing for the signing ceremony :) !
GLA
Knowing KP2, it will be pushed back again, surprise, surprise
Believe it when it happens.
Lol.
Started: ALB1, 15 Jun 2024 12:13
Last post: LTbeliever, 15 Jun 2024 14:28
99, it seems like this guy made a killing too - his "0.35 came to fruition"! So I guess he took part part in the placing at 0.35 i.e. at a lower price than the Chairman!!!!
LT... i do believe my 0.35p came to fruition... ask poor old Brad. Hathorn has made a killing here and will soon be on a beach...
On 22 March 2024 the Company raised US$530,000 via issue of five separate Convertible Loan Notes ("CLNs"). On 28 March 2024 the Company converted these CLNs into 109,865,053 new ordinary shares of US$0.001 each in the Company ("Subscription Shares") at a price of 0.38 pence per share ("Subscription Price").
On 28 March 2024 the Company also announced that David Hathorn, Chairman of Kore Potash conditionally subscribed for 31,093,883 new ordinary shares of US$0.001 each in the Company ("new Ordinary Shares") at a price of 0.38 pence per new Ordinary Share, for a total consideration of US$150,000 (the "Conditional Subscription"). The Conditional Subscription is subject to the approval of shareholders at a General Meeting ("GM") scheduled to be held on 13 May 2024.
Well....start buying more then if your so confident.... this is all a bit of a con... as you will soon find out. However buy more...as you say.. bargain.
We are expecting an RNS about the signing of the EPC. This should be received with a new plan and a new NPV estimate, and also "research" from the brokers with new much higher share price targets. Financing for the project CapEX is supposed to be 100% and to follow within a few weeks.
If the comments about Kore leaving AIM moving to the main market of the stock exchange are true, then it is a possibility, this may come with a placing. However a placing is not necessarily needed.
Moving the the main market does not require extra funds are raised, the move could be what is called a Direct Listing (aka an Introduction).
On the other hand some of the current large share holders may want to "cash in" on part of their holding, with these shares going to new Institutional investors.
Note that Institutional shareholders should be very keen on Kore as it should tick most of the ESG boxes.
99, apologies, my memory was a bit off!
ALB1
Price: 0.725
RE: holding up 12 Apr 2023 17:39
"LT, I'll be buying at 0.35p and below..."
Cnax this is the new temporary SP until the EPC is signed or there is no news confirmation of signing or otherwise from 1/7/24.
Cmon
Started: LTbeliever, 13 Jun 2024 18:48
Last post: 99icecream, 14 Jun 2024 13:05
Rekash - Those of us who like this share have bought lots of shares at much lower prices (in my case 0.52p last time) so buying at these prices is of no interest despite (IMHO) the substantial potential after the RNS.
Rekash, you mean because of the 2021 RNS I re-posted?
Howcome the SP is not rocketing?
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KP2/mou-to-arrange-full-financing-of-kola-construction-mvbt9962q7i3ukt.html
Key terms of the MoU -- The MoU provides the Summit Consortium with a 9 month period to present a financing proposal to fully finance the construction of Kola via a combination of debt and royalty financing. This means that the Company would not be required to raise equity to fund the capital cost of construction as the equity portion will be covered by the royalty funding with the Company retaining its 90% interest in the project. ..The Government will become a 10% shareholder in Kola through the conditions of the Mining Convention and this arrangement is preserved in the MoU.
Started: LTbeliever, 7 Jun 2024 17:15
Last post: Sonmoon, 13 Jun 2024 17:47
2p close
Edging higher
Consolidation period
A clean reversal from 1.8s is what we want to see to continue the momentum.
Interesting, to say the least, that people are slowly and methodically accumulating shares even at 2p on zero news; a good base is forming around 2p, meaning a jump higher should the RNS land soon.
Another million shares at 2p bought at the close today.
I think the guy who bought 2mln shares just b4 Friday's close, @1.98p, will agree with you.
Started: LTbeliever, 13 Jun 2024 14:52
Last post: LTbeliever, 13 Jun 2024 14:52
1.99 to sell (I tried 400k shares)
I’m not selling just yet
The other advice is "Don't sell too soon!" but it's extremely hard to get that right! One billionaire, when asked about the secret of his success, replied "I always sold too soon!"
If you've "always always always lost on shares" then I suggest you devote a lot more time to DYOR and do it a lot better!
It's not rocket science. Hopefully KP2 will give us all a good return - GLA! Obviously, apart from DYOR then Timing is the difference between euphoria and despair. It's tricky juggling everything in four dimensions until the appearance of a gift horse.
I’m really hoping I finally have a share in KP2 that I make decent money on . I’ve always always always lost on shares
Started: Howardzzz, 7 Jun 2024 08:11
Last post: LTbeliever, 7 Jun 2024 10:04
SWky, I see your point; if PChina want control, they have to buy the Investors out (some of which are Chinese anyway - even SQM is 22% owned by the Chinese); I'd say - roughly - KP2 is already 10-15% Chinese owned.
Agree with this in principle but not sure would class KP2 as outside of China's reach given PowerChina's major involvement?
Old broker valuations (heavily discounted due to risks) were at 10p+; but these were 4-5 years ago; since then, the war in Ukraine and the coming Cold War with China means that the WEST will put more value on Potash Mines OUTSIDE the ex-USSR and China's reach; ignoring for now, that Nigeria's (and Africa's) population will be exploding by 2050 (we will be dead by then :)))) ).
Few have any idea what Kore will be worth after the EPC is signed and the new numbers are available (and brokers publish their valuations). This together with poor liquidity will add to the volatility here (IMHO).
IMO, what's important is that we had an impressive run of 400% (from 0.50 to 2p) on quite a lot of BUYS, whilst the insiders (Board, Chairman, Inst. investors etc) DID NOT sell - which is a huge vote of confidence; therefore, with daily swings of 10-20% (including spread widening-tightening accordingly), some profit taking is expected by traders who got in at 1.5p and below.
Started: CBax, 7 Jun 2024 09:07
Last post: CBax, 7 Jun 2024 09:07
It may of fluctuated but in reality it’s been a 2 week steady increase . Got to be happy
Started: Rekash, 6 Jun 2024 09:41
Last post: LTbeliever, 6 Jun 2024 12:20
"He also said that the signing is expected to take place in Brazzaville with members of the government present."
So we just need to follow the schedule of the Minister of Mines :) -- anybody knows his PA??
Y000, very interesting to read "in time the intention is to move onto the main board of LSE"; for that to happen, I assume on FTSE250, it'd mean our SP would need to rise to AT LEAST 8p, as the minimum mkt cap now is around 260mln (Ferrexpo is the bottom stock as per below link):
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-250/constituents/table
Of course, 8p+ is not unfathomable as it all depends on how the financing is structured; the more debt and offtake, the less equity needs to be raised.
GLA
Exciting times ahead indeed!
Thank Rekash.
Progressing well and both parties ensuring that risks are covered - this sounds like standard procedure at this stage when signing such a large contract. No concerns from my side on that update from the Chairman.
He also said that the signing is expected to take place in Brazzaville with members of the government present.
And I caught the last part of my question about dual market listings for KP2 shares and the Chairman said that in time the intention is to move onto the main board of LSE............Wait....that is a huge statement of intent in my opinion! They don't allow junior miners onto the main board.....Kore would have to become a lot bigger ! Happy days ahead.
Transformational time for the company - what a time to be invested here.
Good luck all.
KP2 - Result of AGM - OUT
Started: magdalanium, 3 Jun 2024 09:34
Last post: LTbeliever, 5 Jun 2024 14:23
1.86-1.96
I'm talking about the real range (i.e. when placing a real BUY and a SELL), not the indicated range.
4%? It's nearly 18%
Actually, spread is narrower now, 1.84-1.92, so about 4%, not bad given the low volumes today.
MMs have effectively frozen this today with a ridiculous spread, so we all better strap in and hope for the best tomorrow. But as already stated, there is unlikely to be a revelation at the GM.
Started: Y00020978, 3 Jun 2024 15:34
Last post: Y00020978, 3 Jun 2024 15:34
Late rally for the day?
GLA
Started: 99icecream, 30 May 2024 07:43
Last post: LTbeliever, 3 Jun 2024 08:44
Seems the big buyers are holding fire, for time being; let's hope the RNS will come soon, rather towards the end of June!
But in my opinion the chances of bust are around 5% compared to 95% boom.......given PowerChina have already sank millions of pounds into the project so far in good faith.
Just finalising the minor details now and we are up and running.
Good luck all.
Again, boom or bust. Not much in between...
"will there be support on Monday morning?" Yes, I think there will - recently there were a lot of major buys but few major sells. The serious money is in it for the short long haul. A takeover offer would simplify things but what are the chances?
In the absence of news, the SP is unsupported and entirely dependent on the whims of the Buyer or Seller (whoever is willing to commit more cash); we had a 40% pullback, from the highs of 2.6 (almost) to 1.60, question is - will there be support on Monday morning?
Started: LTbeliever, 1 Jun 2024 14:29
Last post: LTbeliever, 1 Jun 2024 14:29
Partners with the Chilean State, in essence; for the co-production of lithium, potash etc in the Atacama desert;
https://ir.sqm.com/English/news/default.aspx
obviously, this is a long term strategic partnership and given that Kore's potash will be cheaper than the Chilean one (due to the climatic conditions of the Atacama), IMO, this is good for KORE - after production starts!
Started: Anum, 29 May 2024 07:46
Last post: extrader, 30 May 2024 03:49
.." a potash mine in Africa (fastest growing region, globally, population wise) will be a major strategic asset in these turbulent times; .."
Especially if it's located directly opposite a major fertilizer market (Brazil, Argentina) with a spiffing new deepwater port complex supposedly coming to Pointe Noire.
IIRC (ex ZIOC), China's EximBank was supposed to have done a survey of potential exporters on a 'without commitment' basis, to see if financing a port expansion would make commercial sense.
DAK if KP2 was a participant?
GLA and ATB
Https://korepotash.com/investors/analyst-research/
New investors can go to May & June 2021 and read the full research/Broker Notes.
Anum, if we go to 4p upon EPC's signing, and then favourable Broker Notes are released, 8p is doable if the financing is as expected (i.e. non-dilutive).
Are we heading to a price of 10p to 15p......?
Clearly news has leaked about discussions. What to do? I am in at 0.80. This has been over 15p in the past.
"Mitch984 paid too much for his stock and is now bearish. His bad call reflects directly on KP2 apparently."
Mitch has actually been a shareholder in KP2 for over six years because he recognised the huge potential of KP2 many years ago. However he has also had to sit through years of a dead weight CEO until the CEO was fired last year for too long of sitting on his backside drawing his salary while doing nothing to advance the company.
You are clearly a newcomer to KP2 - and I congratulate you on that as its a great time to buy in. However you should not criticise long term shareholders who bought in many years ago and are not therefore in the same position as you - just because you have suddenly discouvered KP2.
And I am not bearish. KP2 is close to finally taking off. All I was saying was that the recent share price rise is pure small investor speculation. Until we get an RSN about a financial partner, nothing is yet certain. Longer term shareholders have seen this type of rise many times before. However we are also closer to a partner than we ever have been, so there is hopefully more substance to the rise than there ever has been too.
GLA
Mitch984 paid too much for his stock and is now bearish.
His bad call reflects directly on KP2 apparently.
Long term holders like me are not excited at all as yet. This share was in the 8p-12p range six years ago, so for many holders the current 2p doesn't mean a great deal.
Remember too that this is AIM. Any AIM share that manages to get in the top ten risers on any particular day attracts a host of day traders - who then lock in their 10% profit by selling a few days later.
Having said that, there is definitely something coming up in the next month as regards a financial partner. Its long overdue. But until then, the rise is purely related to small investor speculation. If signing a financing agreement is delayed by a few months, the share price will drop again.
On the other sid ethough, once iot is signed and if you are willing to hold on for another 2 years or so, then 10p+ is probably a realistic possibility.
Boy would I love a price of 15 p
Started: Barno61, 29 May 2024 22:03
Last post: Barno61, 29 May 2024 22:03
Get ready for blockbuster news!!
Started: Sonmoon, 29 May 2024 18:48
Last post: Sonmoon, 29 May 2024 18:48
Suppressed when the grain port was held randsome by Russia in Ukraine and now it moves 2 years on.
Very undervalued and going under the radar for years as geopolitical tensions have worsened beyond repair.
Started: Barno61, 29 May 2024 10:01
Last post: Barno61, 29 May 2024 10:01
This will either take the form of a deal with the Chinese or a full takeover at £100million plus. I expect 4p by Friday maybe more.