Member Info for Chonkalonka

@CBax A deal is unlikely to be announced before the RoC Govt has promulgated the new Mining Code, which we were told in the SENS announcement on the 30th of April 2026 will be during the second quarter of 2026. Thereafter, the timing of an offer is probably going to be linked to how much time will be required by the bidder to review the newly promulgated Mining Code as well as finalise the local community and social development requirements therein? The draft code was published in November so if the final code hasn't changed too drastically since then, maybe it won't be that long.

(From a Google search) Key details regarding the Mining Code update include:

Purpose: The new code will formally address the government-owned entity that will hold the state's 10% free carry stake in mining projects.

Background: A draft, which introduced competitive bidding, formal permitting for artisanal miners, and support for in-country processing, was approved in November 2025.

Context: The update is part of broader efforts to strengthen the domestic value chain and increase state participation in natural resources, similar to recent revisions in other African nations.

In my opinion (With limited knowledge), the earliest scenario for an announcement of a formal offer would be late June, more likely late July or August, with the deal being finalised (In terms of approval from shareholders, payment dates, etc.) by the end of October 2026. That's if all goes to plan with no unforeseen delays. That's just my personal opinion so take it with a pinch of salt.

@1Kiwi are you saying that the RoC Govt's new Mining Code will require a 20% equity stake? If so, please can you provide your source or clarify what you mean by an additional 10% needing to be "allocated to the RoC country / national pool"? Isn't the 10% free carry stake already part of the national pool as it will be owned by an entity linked to the RoC Govt? Apologies in advance for my confusion over this issue.

This would be quite a significant bit of news considering that the Board hasn't given any indication other than the 10% free carry stake required.

Good advice.

It's difficult not to be worried about the prospect of the buyout right now. Positive news on the deal has been lacking for months and the active steps taken by management to continue pursuing finance would suggest that the Board is moving on. The RoC Government has clearly stalled things with a whole new mining charter due to be enforced so the business environment is hardly conducive to finalising a deal right now.

A few noteworthy points with comments from today's SENS announcement:

1. "Marine drilling work and bathymetric studies covering some 129 hectares of sea area and topographic studies, essential to jetty design, covering another 15 hectares of the coastline were successfully completed during the Quarter to the satisfaction of all parties."

Great to hear that there has been significant progress on the construction of the jetty - Tick - 10/10

2. "The results of the Validation Tests at China ENFI were completed with the 2018 results validated and even improved upon. As expressed by Mr Carlos Perucca, one of the world-leading experts in potash processing, the tests have "Proved beyond any doubt the optimum metallurgical response of a world-class ore quality". As the Validation Tests were the most crucial part of the overall Beneficiation tests referred to in the Early Works Agreement with PowerChina, the parties have agreed that the Beneficiation test Condition Precedent is now fully satisfied."

This is further validation of the quality of the resource at Kola and it means the primary condition for the agreement with Power China has been satisfied - Tick - 10/10

3. "The Company continues to engage with OWI-RAMS regarding the financial package for the Kola Project, on the basis set out in the previously announced Term Sheets. The appointment of a suitable contract operator and the partnering of an appropriately experienced strategic partner in potash mining and processing, as detailed in the Term Sheets, remain key priorities."

The company is continuing to pursue funding for the Kola project with two financiers expressing interest and discussions held with two new potential operators from China - Tick for continued progress but the fact that the company is still actively pursuing finance doesn't boost investor confidence that a buyout offer is around the corner - 6.5/10

4. "The Company is still awaiting formal instructions from the RoC authorities as to the Government-owned entity that will hold the Government's 10% free carry stake. This requirement will be formally addressed by a new Mining Code which is expected to be promulgated in the second quarter of 2026."

Dealing in Africa is slow and Governments are usually the cause of delays. It would appear to be increasingly unlikely that the potential bidder will be able to finalise an offer before the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2026. - No tick (Caution) - 0/10

A mixture of positive progress and reason for caution. This is Africa, I'll continue to accumulate on the JSE below 75 cents per share.

Any significant upside movements in the share price will very likely be dependent on whether or not we get a formal offer from the bidder. Based on the announcement from the 2nd of March 2025, the company was still waiting on confirmation from the RoC Government regarding the Govt's 10% carry stake. The company stated that a formal reminder had been sent to the RoC authorities to expedite this decision.

As per Google AI:

The next major quarterly update is expected in late April 2026 (covering the period ended 31 March 2026).

The company extended its "Cleansing Prospectus" offer period to 31 May 2026. The extension to late May suggests that the Board expects the Formal Sale Process (FSP) or the remaining bidder’s due diligence to continue through most of the second quarter of 2026.

The Board has reserved the right to close the offer early or extend it further. A sudden closure of the prospectus can sometimes signal that the "excluded information" (like a final bid) is about to be released, requiring a fresh regulatory filing.

In the event of a firm takeover offer, high liquidity is essential so that shareholders can easily trade or respond to the offer. The cleansing prospectus ensures that shares issued in the November 2025 fundraise are not "trapped" by technical trading blocks during this critical window.

The prospectus extension is a "housekeeping" measure that keeps the company's shares freely tradeable while the Board manages the final stages of the buyout negotiations. It provides a formal window of operation without implying that a deal is guaranteed or will happen exactly on that date.

The JSE is seeing some proper KP2 trading volumes this morning, more than double any daily trading volume since the 14th of October, and it's only 11:20 am. It's still too early to make any predictions but this type of price action appears to be institutional buying (Allan Gray, etc.?) and hopefully it signals the start of the next leg up.

It is possible that the buyout process is around 90% complete at this stage and now the main delay is waiting for the Republic of Congo's Government. As eluded to in this article: https://www.miningweekly.com/article/kore-making-strides-to-gain-full-ownership-of-kola-project-2026-03-02

"Kore is still awaiting formal instructions from the authorities as to the government-owned entity that will hold its 10% free carry stake."

"A formal reminder has been sent to that effect."

@pedrobull The short answer is that we don't know. However, it's notable that the company didn't buy the full 3% outstanding minority interest in Sintoukola Potash SA (SPSA) when the company has the funds to have bought the full 3% minority interest at the implied valuation price. This would imply that the $1 million purchase for only 0.46% of the minority interest was more about securing the rights to purchase the remaining 2.54% if and when an agreement is reached for the buyout of Kore Potash. The minority interest deal leaves the holder of the remaining 2.54% minority interest in Sintoukola Potash SA (SPSA) with significant upside potential if and when the buyer of Kore Potash purchases the minority interest whilst at the same time securing 100% ownership of Sintoukola Potash SA (SPSA) for the buyer of Kore Potash. This excludes the eventual 10% dilution to be owned by the Republic of Congo's Govt.

Getting back to answering your question, we don't know, however, given the structuring of the deal, I don't think you should place much emphasis on the implied valuation for the 0.46% shareholding in Sintoukola Potash SA (SPSA). The deal has deliberately been structured such that the remaining 2.54% minority interest in Sintoukola Potash SA (SPSA) will be bought at the full valuation price offered by the buyer of Kore Potash.

Let's hope we get a deal soon.

Lots of speculation and anticipation at the moment. Trading volumes have increased over the past two days but are still nowhere near some of the daily trading levels we saw during June, Oct and Nov last year. So what do we know?

1. One of the two interest buyers has withdrawn from the bidding process. Why is that? We don't know, however, we can speculate that they have concluded the bidding process behind closed doors and the losing bidder has now withdrawn to prevent incurring further costs on due diligence as they know they're going to be outbid.

2. The company has spent $1 million to buy a 0.46% minority interest in the company that owns the Kola Project with further share purchase rights for the remaining 2.54% minority interest so that if/when someone buys out Kore Potash the buyer will own 100% of the Kola Project. No revenue for the company has meant that cash has always been tight and the company has repeatedly had to raise additional funds via rights issues. For the board to suddenly spend $1 million on acquiring minority shares wouldn't be a particularly prudent move unless the board were fairly confident that a deal was on the table.

3. One of the two bidders from the November announcement is still in the final stages of conducting their due diligence process. It is highly unlikely that the interested party would still be incurring costs more than three months into the process unless they were serious about making an offer. Given that the other interested party has now withdrawn from the process, it is increasingly likely that a formal announcement regarding the final results of the process can't be too far away.

4. We are a few of potentially hundreds if not thousands of other retail speculators/investors who own shares in Kore Potash. Several investor blogs and subscription services have been recommending Kore Potash as a buy since early last year. A few of these retail speculators could be leveraged, some could be short on cash and others could just be getting increasingly impatient. Given the recent developments in the Middle East and the knock on affects to oil and gold, it is likely that some of Kore Potash's retail speculators sold shares to jump into the next hot market theme. We simply don't know. However, there doesn't appear to be any justifiable need for alarm over a few million shares traded over the past two days.

Take it with a pinch of salt:

Ignore the noise, keep buying more shares and pay attention to the facts. We still have an interested buyer committed to the buyout process after more than three months. The company has utilised limited cash resources to buy up minority shares and secure minority share purchase rights. Why would they do that at this stage?

The stars might just be aligning!

Peace out.

@Rekash I think it's likely that an offer price has been set/agreed and the losing bidder has withdrawn as there's no point in incurring further due diligence costs when you know you're going to be outbid. If these assumptions are correct, this is positive news as it means the bidding process is progressing along and we're likely due for a formal announcement regarding an offer in the not too distant future.

@Anum I think you have put forward the most likely scenario. The bidding process is likely "finalised" with the last bits of due diligence to be wrapped up before making an official announcement.

Does anyone have any updates or expectations as to when the company will be making further announcements regarding the current buyout process? I thought we would get an offer by mid-February but it seems that there is quite a lot of due-diligence required and in fairness we've had December holidays during the process as well.

Thanks 99icecream. I jumped the gun in disappointment without checking the facts. That means we're still in a position to get an announcement regarding the buyout offer any day now, likely by mid-Feb.

Somewhat predictably the offer period has been formally extended, to the 31st of May 2026. Let's hope this means that the interested parties now have sufficient time to complete their due diligence processes and that we'll get a proper offer of R3.30+ by the 31st of May 2026.

Rekash, that would be incredible. Let's hope you're spot on the money. I have more than 1.4 million shares and I'll keep accumulating below 75 cents whilst the appointed broker continues to give away free money.

Unfortunately, it's quite normal for an interested buyer to give a broker a certain percentage of cash (R50 million - R100 million) to keep the share price in check during buyout negotiations. I've seen this type of trading action before on the JSE with shares like Tiso Blackstar and Clover shortly before they were bought out. At the end of the day, what is a few million ZARS' to suppress the share price for a month or two when you're looking at paying R7 billion - R12 billion for the company. If the share price were to suddenly spike to R1 per share before any official announcement it would also look like insider trading so the board also has a vested interest in stabilizing the share price. To me, that would be the most logical explanation as to why someone would be selling so many shares right before a buyout offer which is likely going to be significantly higher than the current share price. Also, any offer is going to be based on a % premium to the 60 or 90 day average share price prior to the offer date so it's in the buyers best interests to ensure that the share price remains as low as possible beforehand. Yes it's all questionable shenanigans but it's part of the game. My new target is R2.80 per share. Yes, it's bold.

Yes. There was a clear change in the bid / offer spread on the JSE yesterday. Seller volumes under 70 cents have dried up.

There are less than 1 million shares on offer up to 80 cents on the JSE. Seems like the seller who was keeping the price capped below 70 cents over the past two months is gone. We could get a quick bump into the 80+ cents range within the next week.

You raise some valid questions to which I don't have the answers. The fact that we have two interested buyers popping up out of the blue at this early stage of development would imply that the company's share price is deeply undervalued and appears to be a potential bargain buy for a behemoth like Nutrien Ltd. The next few months are certainly going to be a bit of a journey with different permutations to consider. My expectations are based on the fact that currently, the JSE share price is between 65 and 70 cents per share with decent seller volumes. How much of a premium do you think the interested parties are going to be willing to pay for Kore Potash in it's current undeveloped state? An offer of R1.20 per share would be an ~80% premium to the current share price. At 1.50 per share that would be a ~123% premium and imply a total market cap / offer price of ~R7.76 billion. When last was there an offer with more than a 120% share premium to take over a potash company? Obviously every scenario is different, so history serves no purpose other than to maybe taper / manage expectations. I'm not saying an offer of R1.80+ per share isn't possible, but to me, it doesn't seem like a high probability given the limited information available to us at this moment in time.

I'm invested via the JSE and given that we've seen price rally all the way up to R1 per share over the past 6 months, I'd think that most of the longer-term institutional investors would likely decline any offers that come in under R1 per share. This would imply a probable 45% - 50% gain on the current share price over the next 6-12 months. My expected offer price is in the range of R1.20 - R1.50 per share, with 8p (R1.80) probably being a little too optimistic. In terms of announcements, I still think we'll see a third suitor enter bidding process with a likely announcement on the various bidders' details coming between mid to late January. Thereafter, it's anyone's guess as to how long the process will take before we get the announcement of any formal offers, etc. For the average retail investor like me, I'd say it's time to load up your portfolio with Kore Potash shares whilst you still can.