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Hmm looking likely to extend long stop to October based on what?
Based on the new company being fully set up? (As per rns).
Based on the mining licenses having been transferred (as discussed in the interview).
Based on Hainan visiting the site this month (as per rns).
Agm booked for the Friday after next (29th September)… no one in their right mind would face investors without the funding having landed when there can be a gap of 15 months between agms.
But cool yeah longstop being extended to October, sure.
Why is it looking likely exactly?
Do you even realise what is happening over the next 5 working days? you know what's planned for the 29th?
Please could you provide specific reasons, given your stating an extension.
As I disagree totally with what you've written.
We are only half way through sept and already you are sticking the knife in with your deramping 🤔
What happened with your .35 drop (WRONG)and it went well north in the other direction hope nobody listened to this numpty.
Hainan Are about to get their picture opportunity, they may of already been, but it’s about to get interesting that’s for sure gla
Looking likely now to expect an extension. I have my money on end of October funding.
Still not hit 30’s which I charted, would be great to top up in the 40’s again.
We all have a price. I certainly do but I won't tempt fate and tell, that's a secret for me to keep.
All I would say is KOD`s valuation will increase as funding is secured and again when a mine is producing. All I would say is when the SP reaches your target be that 1p or £1 sell the amount you have decided upon. I won't sell everything when I reach my target because I believe KOD could be a special case given enough time.
Please Laverda-No takeover bid yet
A few of the large lithium plays, Leo is one, are being crossreferenced with a recent Albermarle takeover bid earlier this year.
Worth a read, covered in many places, Google ALB takeover bid around March this year, big numbers.
An outside possibility but you never know.
Hi Mr S
Thank you for taking the time to outline your thoughts on share price scenarios. It demonstrates the complexity & estimations involved.
In my original post I was replying (4/9@9.52am) to a post by Elco (29/8@9.51am) which showed his calculations of £453,273,821 over 4 yrs which took into account the various costs. I then calculated the 6.93pps. Inadvertantly I used $ which of course make the EPS even greater -8.88ps
There are so many variables but in the main where we differ is the:
1) The price of spod now approx $3250
2) The price earnings ratio used.
3) The number of shares in issue
All of which can greatly affect the EPS.
1) It is difficult to foresee the price of Spod so it is not unreasonable to use the current price.
2)I feel the p/e ratio you use (5) is a little low as KOD is a growing co with potential & other resources. Also Markets are differently valued ie NY & London. I used an average p/e of 13.89 but the London Mining average is 7.5 but due to Kods potential I believe it should be valued more highly.
https://simplywall.st/markets/gb/materials/metals-mining
3) I have used the current count of 17BN but accept that with the issue to Hainan 19BN is likely.
All in all a price of 2.28pps for the first mine is in my opinion rather low.
I feel that Elcos figure of £108,108,455pa which takes into account costs is not unreasonable using the reasons above - $3250 per ton spod, 19BN shares & a p/e only of 10 this equates to a price of 5.72pence per share.
Although I do feel that a higher p/e is justified.
As I have said this is only conjecture & speculation with many variables but provided the deal goes thru,no problems, mine built,spod market holding up, producing,no war in Mali etc etc then I see a very good return.
Not entirely sure how i can provide a link to a forecast that's disappeared?
Link?
...monday morning resource upgrade RNS inbound?
Noticed the canaccord price forecast of 1.5p is nowhere to be seen on trading view anymore...
Expected LOM revenue = $2000 x 130,000 x 4 = $1,040,000,000 (£1.04bn)
Expected revenue per anum = 2000 x 130,000 = $260,000,000 ($260m)
Estimated c1 costs per anum = 436 x 130,000 = 56,680,000 ($56.68m)
Estimated profit per anum = $260m - $56.68m = 203,320,000 $203.32m
Estimated market cap (assuming PE of 5) = $203.32m x 5 = 1,016,600,000 $1.16bn
x0.445 (44.5%) = $452,387,000 ($452m)
Estimated share price = Market cap / shares in issue = $452.387m / 19.841bn shares (19,841,000,000) = $0.0225....£0.0228p (2.28p)
or 2.28p per share
@ full 350mtpa production you are looking at? 2.7x that..... 0.061p (6.1p)
so 2.28p for first mine
6.1p for second mine
( someone else posted a short while back using figures based on $5000 per tonne, so i adjusted their numbers for $2000 per tonne) i believe when all shares are issued then the number is closer to 21b. the figures above are based on 19b.
so 5-6p, really we need everything all signed off and exact prices before we can crunch numbers in finer detail and the resource upgrade due this side of christmas should hopefully put the value well beyond 6p territory
Hi MC
I am not asking anyone use a crystal ball, only to check if my calculation arriving at 6.93pence per share is correct?
If the calculation is correct then it maybe possible to get some idea of future price per share.
Sorry Celle
Don't feel qualified to auger such things as future price
But feel free to elucidate.
M
I think on known reserves (but expecting decent addition) was worked out at 1.2bill with flotation plant
Matt -Thanks for the reply-does that mean you agree the figures----anyone ?
I got it wrong 1st time if correct ---may expand
Dont forget the gold...
If Kod goes over 5p I'm going to get my own great white aquarium in the lounge...
MC -Thanks
I could not believe my figures,but I think I made a typo.
$435273821 over 4 yrs DMS- ie 108,818,845 pa. divided by the number of shares at present in issue 17022,000,000 = 0.006393 multiplied by a conservative p/e of 13.89 for the mining sector =0 .0888 cents per share = 6.93 pence per share. ( I presume the $ .0888 is 8.888 cents)
If I have got it wrong this time I will give up & go back to school !!
Heading the day after 7p would get me thinking because UK is heading down hill succesive goverments are dragging us towards oblivion. We spend billions of taxpayers money on all bar UK
You made 400 mil over 4yrs into 1 billion per year
Lol
Hi
Sometime back I did a calculation which pretty much came to 7p per share. Once the DMS plant is in full production. I did not get any feedback & thought it had been pretty much dismissed (4/9/23 9.52am).
I have pasted my posted below:
Hi Elco-Thanks for taking timeout from your sunbed/drinks to reply.
I have read your post (29th Aug @ 9.51) which was interesting.
Taking your figure of $ 435273821 over 4 yrs DMS- ie 1088181845 pa. divided by the number of shares at present in issue 17022M = 0.006393 multiplied by a conservative p/e of 13.89 for the mining sector =0 .0888 cents per share = 6.93 pence per share.
I find it hard to believe my calculation is correct and this is only for DMS not taking into account the flotation plant when it comes online.
Can someone either demolish my calcs or confirm ?
7p+ for my plans is early retirement around nov '26.. so i dont think its too far fetched. Even if it isnt, im gone 🛺
Catch the lollipop train to the irish bar then hitch a ride on Dazaliams back along the beach