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Thank fk for that
Very wise words!
Kistos has been turned into a tax collector by the goverment desperate for revenue, and irrespective of the effects on jobs, carbon footprint, and energy security. The level of the so called windfall tax is also excessive, and Labour seem to be even more stuck in this incompetent mindset.
On the upside Kistos is still a low cost profitable producer and the Mime acquisition not priced in. AA is a deal maker and the next deal will be outside the UK/EU domain and will be the next upward trajectory in the share price. Not a time to sell at this price, and most probably a time to buy
Taxes are paid on profit. If prices have collapsed, then equally profits will be lower so therefore any taxes due will also be lower. The Treasury have already admitted that revenues from windfall taxes will be much lower than originally anticipated.
Gas and oil edging back up again :-)
Keep an eye on oil prices. I feel something will happen to drop them too and windfall taxes 'may' fall through the lower threshold
Https://hiddenvaluegems.com/myportfolio/kistos/investmentcase
The tax burden has indeed increased. However, this first followed an unprecedented surge in energy prices. Kistos earned €270mn FCF in 2022 (more than its current market cap) as record prices more than offset the tax burden. Besides, the UK tax regime provides investment allowances for up to 91p on each 100p invested. Finally, with its entry into the Norwegian shelf, Kistos has diluted the effect of negative fiscal changes in the UK and the Netherlands.
The market is also missing the exceptional capital allocation skills of the current management team headed by the Executive Chairman,..........
“ At spot prices, Kistos should earn FCF that equals its current market cap”
There’s no way this is taking into account the impact of the welfare taxes?
Https://hiddenvaluegems.com/myportfolio/kistos/investmentcase
At spot prices, Kistos should earn FCF that equals its current market cap. It has all-in cash costs (including capex and interest expenses) at about $30/boe. Such an attractive opportunity exists because the market is focusing on the wrong side and misses the true value drivers of this business........
Kistos: the opportunity and what the market is getting wrong about it
The market views Kistos as a collection of mature assets in a cyclical sector facing growing fiscal pressure. While formally, this is correct, I disagree with the conclusions.
Oil and gas prices are indeed cyclical. However, following an extended period of falling investments, changing behaviour of industry players, and growing cost of capital, not least due to the ESG pressure, the energy prices will likely stay above the historical trend in the next 3-4 years. Besides, as a fully-funded, low-cost producer, Kistos does not require high prices to remain profitable. ..................
........ ........Kistos is below the radars of many large investors, so its share price is more likely to be priced inefficiently compared to larger companies, providing a better opportunity for private investors...........
Thanks for interview link. Fascinating insight to a remarkable character
AA talks about how he got started, igas, rockrose, kistos, the windfall tax and the opportunities he sees in electric vehicles and/or sustainable aviation fuel.
https://youtu.be/VNCrE0sOdNA?t=2070
Does anyone have an idea of Kistos' NPV-10 post the Mime acquisition? Thanks
disagree. relatively low commodity prices at the moment mean aa and co will be relentlessly pursuing new acquisitions, more than likely in norway or possibly even further afield in countries who aren’t ran by lunatics - angola perhaps? based on the boards track record further deals will be sooner rather than later and i suspect gas prices will increase significantly over winter once again boosting the bottom line. strong buy at these prices. in my experience, buying when everyone is ****ting themselves (i.e now) is the way to go. many will chase this up once ttf/ice start to move again + brent looks healthy. of course there have been set backs operationally and with taxation but the company isn’t skint for cash and aa is a shrewd operator. bookmark this post and check back in 6 months. dez
It could be, scoredagainsteps. Particularly as the decline in UK and NL seem unstoppable. The last 3 drilling campaings have been a total failure, Q-11B, Benriach and estimulation of Q-10A. The lack of news regarding Orion is killing the share price. Mime deal is great but it won't start to deliver until 2 years from today. I reduced in the way down and I keep a small position, which I could increase at £2/sh
Financial
Strong cash generation in both halves of the year, with movements in gas prices and production rates offsetting each other
· Profit after tax of €73 million, including €44 million of impairment charges relating to exploration assets in the Netherlands, €27 million of gains from changes and releases in acquisition contingent consideration balances, and a total tax charge of €228 million.
· The tax charge (resulting in an effective tax rate for 2022 of 89.8%) includes impact of the Energy Profits Levy in the UK and the EU Solidarity Contribution Tax in the Netherlands.
· Cash balances on 31 December 2022 of €212 million (31 December 2021: €77 million) and net cash of €130 million (31 December 2021: net debt of €73 million).
· Retired 46% of outstanding debt by repurchasing €68 million of Nordic Bonds, leaving €82 million outstanding.
· Capital expenditure on a cash basis, excluding business acquisitions, was €19.5 million.
Got it, Many thanks once again for you time and help.
"In the Balder area, production was positively impacted by the completion of repairs to the subsea systems in late 2022. However, the riser integrity issue at Ringhorne, which occurred in February and was communicated in the fourth quarter report, continued to reduce production by approximately 5 kboepd in the quarter. Work is ongoing to repair the riser with expected completion in Q3 2023
Many thanks for the pointer SpArmada
KIND thanks SpArmada i got a feeling kis could move 2 pounds a share by oct
If you read through Var Energy updates, there has been a problem with a riser
Superb SpArmada! Just what I have been looking for! Thank you very much.
It looks like there has been some interruptions to production at Balder in April as the gross figure of ~233,000 barrels is way down on previous months (January ~620,000 barrels, February ~499,000 and March ~468,000 barrels)
Thanks to your input we can refine the net production figure for Kistos in April to a more accurate number, albeit downwards :(
Gas = ~4500 boe/d
Oil = ~~863 bbl/d
I heard GLA has conducted a planned maintenance, a bit longer than usual though. Also, the data for Balder is available here, ~7,700 boepd in April (770 boepd for Mime/Kistos): https://factpages.npd.no/en/field/pageview/all/43562#
No questionmarks thanks for sharing the info appericated
Production in April at GLA was down markedly on March, production around half March's numbers (maybe a maintenance shutdown?)
I haven't been able to locate production figures for Norway as yet, so will use the 2000 bbl/d given to us as a rough estimate by AA. The additional 2k from Norway has made up for the loss from GLA resulting in a small uplift in net production month to month of 58 boepd.
Total net production for Kistos = 6623 boepd (March 6562 boed, February 7505 boepd)
Q10_A
Total production 24.857.296Nm3 (150,298 boe) or 5010 boepd.
Net production 60% = 3006 boepd.
GLA
Total production 43mmscf/d of gas and 93 barrels per day of oil. That makes 8088 boepd.
Net production 20% = 1617 boepd.
Norway ~ 2000bbl/d
Well they incredibly cheap at the moment
What am i missing fcf is 250 million plus a year only 82 million shares mkt capt 198 million and cash over 200 million ,THIS IS A STEAL ? jUST UNDER 11OOO bopd . so income is huge