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Looks like KHG is breaking out (above 78p). I think the mid term chart looks super bullish IMO.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ySNOpVX6/
Longer term weekly
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8UBAfWlR/
Momentum has definitely improved for this share, with positive 1m Relative Strength. That alone should see some technical traders coming in soon.
Good set of results (considering) over at rival RBGP.
Results up to Dec 22 (KGH declared up to Oct 22 so far). (My RBGP holding now up 33%).
Group revenue (including gains on litigation assets) up 25.6% to £54.1m (2021: £43.1m)
Adjusted EBITDA up 54.2% to £15.8m (2021: £10.3m)
Adjusted profit before tax up 66.3% to £10.9m (2021: £6.6m)
Outlook
Based on the current outlook, we expect to continue to pay up to 60 per cent of retained earnings in the 2023 financial year by way of dividend. -- No clue as to business performance.
Might see a FY TU here in May. Last year was May 19th.
Clients, revenues, "talent" up for grabs
Someone bidding for 100k in the closing auction at the highs of the day
There was a time that Ince was the largest listed law firm, so I think it should be positive for Knights in terms of clients. Anyway, the technicals for this stock have improved substantially over the past couple of weeks. Maybe it's finally on the rise again? there's no corresponding increase in volume, but hey, maybe the selling has at least slowed for a while.
Ince going pop will have zero impact on Knights. I only mentioned it as CaneToad had previously taken an interest in it; and to highlight that law firms can, and do, go bust. For some reason folks don't seem to realise that. It happens rather too often.
INCE "disappearing" strikes me as nothing but good news for KGH. Just a truly awful operator.
It will definitely be a test for Beech and his promise to be "Focussed on improving organic growth; driven by improved margins, improving productivity and investment in more profitable fee earners"
Kid in a candy shop springs to mind?!
There could be some value in the shipping work - I just hope that DB doesn't run up more debt to salvage that lost ship.
Yes, I noticed the Ince news - that's a shot across the bow for KGH who has followed a similar strategy or acquiring firms and running up debt. Just a year ago I was telling people that Ince couldn't afford the dividend and I was yelled down... but it's eerily similar here! One thing that differs is the depth of the pockets of DB who would be able to loan the firm money if they really needed it.
Not sure if you've seen yet CaneToad - Ince is finally going into administration after its drawn up death spiral.
@Dartron: Most people who invest in AIM shares lose money; most people on these boards lose money or achieve a lower return than the index. Hence I never listen to advice from anybody on these boards... Good luck.
Good to hear this is only a small part of your portfolio Dartron. Hope all works out for you. A bit of positive momentum may help. I know my continued view on this, but I won’t repeat it again for the fear of upsetting Pompal!
Hey welcome back Humpty, Yeah it sounds like I have a lot of lawyers, but it is only about 12% of pf. I have all sorts in there (no resource plays). I have over 20 stocks/funds, just personal choice and enjoy it very much. I take your point, but I think they will offer reliable dividends (6%) and a chance to trade. I do think the sector will re-rate at some point. DWF I am almost in at the bottom, I think barring a disaster that should do well. RBGP, already in profit. Will hold and see how the debacle unfolds. knights, well I am damn well going to exit this with at a least a small profit. Listening to interviews, Beech needs a good share price, as its part of the acquisition package. When small caps re-rate no reason why this wont. ATB Humpty.
Dartron - I suspect you’re a decent bloke, and from your posts I think you have a decent head on you shoulders. If I were you, I’d leave the legals to the lawyers. The only ones who earn serious money are the partners in unlisted firms or Mr Beech and co who have already taken their profit. I’m not sure what other interests you have, but maybe have a look at another sector too. It would be a shame to have all your eggs in one basket. All the best.
That sounds like a fools game to me. I think you have a good entry there, why cant you hold it. Everything you said to me, is also true for you, on the next higher time frame. i.e. on the weekly, you did try to buy the bottom. No trend has been established yet. I think the rise was a short closing after the II buy. Im sat here all day, so I saw it pretty early, and just bought the break out on the day. I had to sell it, as I have enough here, and at least I can attribute some profit to Knights now. I am also waiting for the dividend payment I think. I will buy again if I see the set up. But I dont think there is much reason for KGH to rerate currently, not compared to everything else. I think 70p is a cracking entry if you have a +1 year outlook, but we need news either here, or in the sector to get excited. I topped up on DWF too, its better investment, as its currently 7% yield and much lower PE. I think that one goes first then Knights follows. I also bought RBGP this week, if you like scandal and risk. I should say this is a pension for me, and I cant access it for 10 years. I still contribute to it, so I can just keep buying if I am happy with the company, therefore further drops do not worry me. Though my asset allocation is swayed more to 7% yields currently. I hope to top all the legals up one more time before sh*t gets real!
As I initially thought, there has been no change in buying volume; it's just a few small PI buys and from the institutional seller... I'll keep an eye on it and will most probably exit quickly.
@Dartron: "What a shame you didn't act on it. It has done 16% in 2 days."
Getting in at the absolute bottom or calling the level is a fools game, because it will only be apparent several days after. I watched this for several months and got close - and that's all that's important.
I already had a tiny position, but opened a larger tranche yesterday morning, with a suitable stop-loss of course. I'll exit if it drops back more than about 12.5%, so that the trade offers ~5*R. Getting individual trades right or wrong is unimportant - few on thes boards ever seem to ever realise that...
DWF looks too cheap in my opinion
I think if we go back through the chat, CaneToad, you even called about 65p. What a shame you didn't act on it. It has done 16% in 2 days. I took some at 67 but sold them yesterday at 71.5 as I already have enough. Would have been great to sell them today, but happy with some funds to play elsewhere.
Re: the results video: I thought DB and the CFO came across well, with a clear strategy.
I can't see the interim results presentation having been posted on this thread? Link below:
https://vimeo.com/789807157/91951d1198
Worth a run through before deciding either way on KGH
Yeah, it's starting to look tempting for a punt, with a suitably tight stop in case it resumes its freefall. After another look:
Bad: Volume is still low, there's very limited interest in the share
Good: RSI has ticked up a bit
Bad: It's forming a base, but there's no evidence of any momentum
Bad: Most listed law firms are similarly weak, e.g. DWF and GTLY
Bad: High debt
Conclusion: There's too little to go on and I'm continuing to stay out.
I've taken out a small long with Sep expire date.
The good - Institutional buy, buys this morning, good value, previous low area
The bad - Still under moving averages
The ugly - The debt
anymore to add?
Up to 12%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. is a diversified financial services company and bank holding company incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It provides financial planning products and services, including wealth management, asset management, insurance, annuities, and estate planning.
This is far better than David Beech buying, this is independent verification, and surely shows that they see value at this price.
Well it sure would be welcomed if he put some of it back in here!