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Excellent post Simms - best I’ve read on LSE for some time. It is an interesting situation, because as you say, Harry can’t say much because of NDA, so there won’t be much new info in upcoming webinars / Q&A, etc, which will in turn feed vitriol of the Harry basher and his numerous BB aliases. One morning the red dot will appear, the RNS will land, and there will be a crazy scramble for shares. It’s going to be fun.
While i do not know the companies that formed the original ANS consortium what i do know is that when it came down to brass tacks 18 months ago in the version we are told (believe it or not) it coincided with a liquidity crisis in Ethiopia and basically ANS did not follow through. This was a group of local Ethiopian companies that had been formed when gold was $1250 and while the consortium was a little opaque (i do not have names) I am sure several had links to the government. i am sure there is more to it but in a recent webinar Harry had a wry smile saying that the ANS consortium missed the deadline so their deal was null and he was adamant Kefi did not need them as gold was $1800+. This resulted in Kefi looking it might end up with 75-85%. However i suspect that inorder to politically win this through the country it cannot be just seen as some foreign project so Harry has to continue to offer local companies an option to participate. For me overall the timing appears to be tied to Ethiopian elections. This is June 5th and Abiy and team will want to announce this deal prior to support narrative they are able to create the largest dollar export project in the country and new employment. I think the Kefi gold mine is well supported on this basis. For me sometime in May looks a good bet for serious news for Kefi shareholders. Abiy can then maximise the kudos alongside the Dam project he is pushing to get filled and again support his achievements. As to the 31st March it was always referred as "anticipated" and of course Harry wanted it but legals take time. Everything will be under NDA so i do wonder what else he can say about details as i would be keen to know what has happened between Jan 1st - march 31st in terms of paperwork and signing. The recent options granted RNS made it clear that it was based on TK happening and they know more than we do. i think the quarterly update really forced his hand as he was technically required to update but we could be close. A phrase from in recent RNS was "closing program having commenced and remaining in progress" so if that is believed it looks that he is referring to slowness of turnaround and not any change in direction. Suspicious minds might wonder if Kefi is short a few million as he is attending mining conferences but he probably needs to be seen to be doing what he can to give locals the chance, Frankly Harry is trying to pull off the gold mine deal of the decade by not putting up any cash , except the $60m of historic costs as our share of the project. it is a master stroke if he does it. personally i would be happy for him to get this over the line and do a placing but only once the paperwork is all signed so that cash goes into the closing of the project. We will see but £40m is a silly silly low price so there is plenty of upside here potentially. Certainly a 5x opportunity within 12 months subject to a good wind and with Russia sabre rattling gold is likely to climb.
I really wish your posts were worth reading ...
@CVM_13 (The baker)
How many outtings do you get a day from the ward at your Psychiatrice hospital. I ask just so I can schedule by work break accordingly.
I literally just come on here to read what you have written. I can not wait for those pies, I know you read all the comments (beacuse you are sad like that) lol. Come on Son say hello!!!
should read 'hadn't been significant delays'
Looks to me like the usual gang of Harry bashers on this board, are in fact just a couple of people with various aliases - too many of the emails appear to be written by same hand. I also suspect those people have zero hands-on experience of working in resource projects (let alone projects in Africa). I am an Exploration Geologist (now Exploration Manager) with over 30 years experience (many of them in Africa) - my posting history will confirm this. The delays suffered by KEFI are very much to be expected in a country like Ethiopia - I would have been amazed if there had been significant delays. Im very happy to hold and add.
Simms45, good post, but,
1) How do you know that any of the "ANS rabble", as you put it, are still involved?
2) If the pull of the EG is so strong, why couldn't Kefi and its partners get another one or more local investors to invest by March 31st?
Lol, you lot are so easily rattled.
I'd be rattled too if some wheeler dealer from down market had my pants down every 3 months with the pump and dump.
Harry has got you all on strings. I can imagine him down Peckham market, 'this ain't none of your cheap scam mines, this is genuine gold from Ethiopia!'
He likes baking....
Not only is CVM clueless, he is penniless too :-)
Oh, and a bit of a bell...... End......
I wonder if the Ethiopian government have invested $10m so far on roads and power for the fun of it and spent years working with communities on the move. No first mover gold mine is easy and when you working with the government who are a shareholder you know firstly it will take time and patience but secondly you know it will eventually happen. My only reason investing 12 months ago was because Kefi had the lowest value based on indicated gold in the ground by a factor of 3 and that the Ethiopian government were involved. The latter was a pretty big reason for me and suspect any investor with a higher level of confidence we are close. if this was Harry against a frontier territory you would not touch with a barge pole but governments have significant power and have a gravitational pull on investors who are more likely to back the project. Ultimately the Ethiopian government are the backstop to smooth the way. I am annoyed any of the ANS rabble are somehow still involved but suspect politically its probably part of the dance as i am sure Harry would prefer to have fewer parties involved. Slowly but steadily is fine by me and smart investors wait around on the drops to build positions.
State of this board today, people genuinely trying to conjure up positives out of no where. Did they not see the inevitable delay news from yesterday, clueless springs to mind.
Looking forward to buying in again in a few weeks when the SP is back in the doldrums. No doubt a raise is needed at some point. What price do people think SP will plummet to when this does happen?
Keep dangling that carrot Harry Enfield lol. Rainy season come June and July, no way is this funding getting done before then.