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Oh, there it is. LoL. LSE!
My morning post vanished?
Hello @news. I hope you can see that I'm trying to help with your (our!) understanding. I can say with 100% certainty that the Sonora resources of 8.82Mt are expressed in Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) meaning that the weight of the contained Lithium is (rounded!) 1.66Mt and it is this which should be used to compare against resources that are expressed in Li. What I'm slightly less certain on (only 99% certain) is whether the units for the the lithium brines I quoted are LCE or Li. I believe they are Lithium, as does the U.S. Geological Survey and bnamericas, but I thought I'd ask others to comment/check. I presume you know where the 5.323 comes from? LCE is Li2CO3. Add up the atomic masses and you'll see. Here's a video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBdBtgKyc8g (73.89 / 13.88 = 5.323)
As to Amapa valuations, as I've said everyone has their own. I'm not saying what they "should" be I'm saying what I'M using. If people want to use the conservative valuation of $600m (which should be $660m as @Kiran keeps making this mistake) used by @Kiran (he states it's conservative) they can do. I'd encourage them to read the Anglo accounts to understand what this is though. From what I can tell it's a written down asset valuation + monies owed - monies owed + others. Why did Anglo do this? Well you'll have to ask them but I'll bet my bottom dollar it was to optimise in year taxes. For me, and others are free to disagree, their previous year valuation of $1.2B is more appropriate, which is more likely to be a DCF/NPV, and even this could be an underestimate of the value of the mine today given the updated mineral resource, iron ore prices and exchange rates. We'll have to wait until the scoping study to see, and this is partly why I say that we might not see my price targets for 20% straightaway.
I hope that helps explain where I am coming form. Again, I'm only trying to help. It would be much easier for me to stay quiet and say nothing. ;-)
Ob.
observer842
I note that you have asked others on the main forum to help you.
Let me say this. I have said that the 8.8Mt comes from E & T interview and these figures are from BCN. On REM, you did know what the E & T article stated @250 years and Chile 9Mt.
Also, the REM Scoping Study on Sonora also stated 8.8Mt which I posted on this forum with the date of the RNS from RECALL, so you can look through the posts.
D.L has also commented on BCN Sonora and EMH and put it at over 13Mt from recall and said it was $100b from recall. I have to re-check as that was a tweet.
However, you have cut it down to 1.7Mt for BCN*s lithium at Sonora.
Does it matter? Well, readers of this forum will have to CHECK.
That*s all I can say. Just as KDNC said that Amapa value was $600m in the Q & A interview recently but you say on the main forum it should be $1.2bn if I recall? Mind you, that was a valuation done presumably by an investment bank who are familiar with such valuations.
That ends the conversation. Each to their own. I STICK WITH WHAT IS PUBLISHED BUT DO CHECK AS I DONT HAVE THE FIGS ON ME - ITS IN THE NOTES AND HARD TO LOOK THRU NOW.
HOWEVER, IT WAS POSTED ON THIS FORUM ETC ETC.
Mon, 12 Apr 2021.
Does this help?
https://www.savannahresources.com/lithium/lithium-overview/
Hello @news. I'm as confident as I can be that the official USGS figures are correct. I've seen many articles over the years get confused when talking about Lithium and Lithium Carbonate Equivalent. Mexico (including Sonora) DEFINED resources are much less than Chili's, and very much less than Bolivia's. I've also seen many commentators getting confused over the largest mines in the world. Mines are not brines. Brines are contained in Salars and typically their resources are significant larger - but they often don't feature in top 10's of lithium MINE's, because, well, they aren't mines. LoL. The largest in the world is the Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia which has over 10 times the defined resources as Sonora. I urge you not to fall in to the same trap as other of comparing apples with pears. Multiply/divide by 5.323 if you must. LoL. ;-) Once you are confident you know what unit the resource is reported in of course.
"Spotlight: Latin America’s biggest lithium deposits" (October 13, 2020)
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/spotlight-latin-americas-biggest-lithium-deposits
===[
1. Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia
Lithium equivalent resource: 21.1Mt
Type: Brine
2. Salar de Atacama, Chile
Lithium reserves: 8.3Mt
Type: Brine
3. Cauchari-Olaroz, Argentina
Lithium reserves and resources: 5.30Mt
Type: Brine
4. Sonora project, Mexico
Lithium resources: 1.66Mt
Type: Polylithionite
Mexico’s Sonora project hosts total resources of 8.82Mt lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), or 1.66Mt lithium metal, according Bacanora Lithium.
5. Olaroz, Argentina
Lithium resource: 1.20Mt
]===
As to the valuations for Amapa by some. The 67p, £1, £1.20 valuations are based on taking 20%-27% of the company. And they are personal valuations - NO ONE can know what will actually transpire. I'm in the 67p-£1 range for 20%, and hopefully over £1 on 27% - but not necessarily straight away, but possibly due to iron ore prices and sentiment driven. My valuation for when shipping started was over 30p. We went over 30p subsequent to this being RNS'd... :-)))) We've fallen back, because well, AIM is AIM, no doubt we'll do the same for the other targets if we hit them... But AIM is AIM and we might just breeze past them on expectations of taking 49%. Who knows? I certainly don't. ;-)
Ob.
observer842
I have just seen your reply to me.
Fair enough. You want to concentrate on Amapa so that people can SEE VALUE.
Unfortunately, that is NOT the view of the MM*s at the moment given the timelines as said.
So, unless you can convince the MM*s or Mr Market, then there may be NO serious re/R?
Already, it has fallen 2 days when predictions that it would SHOOT £1-£1.5 on shipping has not been AGREED to by Mr Market.
Hence, why an ANALYSIS will have to be done of ALL KDNC*S ASSETS in order that the market can correctly assess as norm.
So, we agree to disagree.
News, 11.4.2021
In the meantime, it looks like the pattern of the past and one that could be common to many AIM co*s in general ie traders in and out on news events or anticipating news events.
I do subscribe to Efficient Market Theory which was the cornerstone one studied.
Pretty useful and what one is trying to analyse - KDNC may not be revealing INTERNAL MEETINGS to talk about the same things?
So, if one were to look into this, it is helpful to be ahead of the curve or the market which will be evaluating WHETHER ONE LIKES IT OR NOT.
PAST- people on the KDNC forum used to ask WHY IS THE SP NOT GOING HIGHER.
One day, I decided to tell the forum to look at the MARK-TO-MARKET and to do this on a more regular basis to see how far the SP IS VS the underlying mark-to-market investments KDNC holds.
SAME FOR ONE*s OWN PORTFOLION - if one has QUOTED AND LISTED SHARES which will involve daily mark-to-market and for UNLISTED SHARES, the grey market is helpful if there is one. Or else VALUATION HAS TO BE TAKEN as is norm PRE-IPO in the USA.
So, we leave it there- we cant agree or rather you cant agree with the published data?
Thanks.
News, Sun, 11 Apr 2021.
This ends the discussion and I can now take my leave. DYOR, IMHO. PLEASE DO DUE DILIGENCE AND CHECK.
Observer842
From what was quoted, the figure was in LCE in the 1st place. Since you dont agree with the figures, lets leave it there.
With all the hoo ha , will GAN take over possibly BCN? It is NOT usual to buy some 29% of a co if one did not want to take it over? Logic but I am NOT certain as there has been NO previous pattern to show either way?
Can they now with all the Mexican hoo har? Will they? Only they know at the time.
That was why REM bought 20% of BCN and a 30% share in the Sonora Lithium Ltd [SLL] so that it takes up their stake to a higher economic interest. IN CANADA, DL EXPLAINED THAT THE THRESHOLD IS DIFFERENT TO LONDON @20% NEEDED. INDEED, REM DID MAKE AN OFFER WHICH BCN LET OUT TO MKT THEN. So, some basis.
TAKE-OVER OR PRODUCTION [GAN] ?
In both scenarios, one still has to be forward looking from KDNC*S VIEW.
It will help with CASH FLOW ANALYSIS. Litchfield also has to be taken into ACCOUNT.
Then, one can PLAN CASH FLOW ANALYSIS GOING OUT FOR AMAPA, SONORA & LITCHFIELD.
No co usually waits TILL it happens one day and its all a SURPRISE. Listed co*s dont work that way given accounts will need to be 12 months ahead at least to qualify for continuation.
GOING FORWARD, THE LONGER TERM PLANS HAVE LANDED ON KDNC [REM MEXICO]
GIVEN BCN IS TALKING A LOT TO MEXICAN PRESS AND GIVING OUT NEW INFO.
If one were the CEO of KDNC, one may have to speak formally to BCN or put it in writing as to the release of NEW INFO ie BCN-GAN PLANS. Obviously, no one can be SO SPECIFIC IE US$2B UNLESS ONE HAS THE ACCOMPANYING FIGURES OR STUDY TO GO WITH IT. Nothing is done haphazardly in biz as norm.
WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE PRECISE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS, ANY CO WILL BE SITTING IN THE DARK AND WAITING FOR CASH NEEDS WITHOUT KNOWING WHAT IS HAPPENING.
HENCE, WHY CO*S ALL PRODUCE CASH-FLOW ANALYSIS AND LONG-TERM UNPUBLISHED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS AND STRATEGY otherwise it could be MESSY? it is norm to do so.
SONORA
Obviously, now that so much is revealed by BCN, REM Scoping Study and DL*s tweets from the past, KDNC will have to GET MAX VALUE. TO DO THAT, THEY WOULD NEED M & A EXPERTS in order to prepare for whatever route GAN will take. Cant see BCN has the money to take REM over for their % share. GAN will NOT be giving BCN FREE MONEY to pay their part so do they buy MORE OF SONORA LLC FROM BCN/REM etc to GAIN OPERATORSHIP at 51% or 66%, latter you mentioned for a special case.
I rest my case. ACCURATE ANALYSIS AND KNOWING THE PATHWAY OF KDNC will provide a more accurate analysis of sp going forward. MR MARKET WILL ALSO BE DOING THE SAME THING.
All for discussion only. IMHO. DYOR. Please do due diligence and ask KDNC or BCN to confirm etc.
11/4/21 News.
Hello @news. Sorry I can't spend more time to discuss, but before you go too deeply down a rabbit hole with the wrong end of the stick regarding relative reserves (e.g. Sonora vs Chile) I thought it might be helpful for me to point you to my post on 27 Mar 2021 15:11 on here. To go from Lithium to LCE you need to multiply by 5.323, meaning Chile's 9.6Mt of lithium is actually 51Mt LCE.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-lithium.pdf
Sonora is the 1.7Mt of Lithium.
By the way, I'm more than happy for OTHERS to talk about any of our assets - I'm personally just wanting to focus on Amapa until it completes - I think the market doesn't fully appreciate its potential and the more that can elucidate this the better. :-))))
Ob
contd
the Sonora Lithium Ltd project [SLL], then given they are a business, they may not provide the tech.
So, anyone wanting to perhaps take Sonora over may have to consider this. Hence, why it does appear to be a defence strategy which differs a bit from the normal run of the mill defence strategy which requires a different approach. In the case of EMH, the govt in the end could see that if they were to also be in 100% charge, it may involve or could involve international arbitration.
I also found out that MEXICAN LITHIUM does not only consist of clay but other sources as well eg HARD ROCK LITHIUM ETS. BUT------------THEY HAVE POOR GRADES--------------.
SONORA IS SAID TO HAVE -----------HIGHER OR HIGH GRADES FROM RECALL---------------.
In the past, when this subject was raised, the Minister in charge calmed the people and said that the methodology needed was not there yet. This is PRIOR to David Lenigas going to that AMERICAN LITHIUM CO IN KINGS VALLEY TO FIND OUT HOW TO EXTRACT CLAY. Then, NO co had lithium production from clay.
TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SONORA? [Per obs]
No, I dont think so given that Kiran M has said in his last interview prior to the recent one, that SONORA comes in F R O M YEAR 8.
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
It would definately 100% NEED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS. AMAPA COMES INTO PLAY IN 2 YRS SHIPPING [24mths] + 2 YEARS COMMISSIONING [24 mths ambitious timeline per Kiran M]. Kiran M mentioned "FINANCING or D." ONLY THEN, AFTER THE 24+24 MTHS COULD SEE 1ST CASH FLOW & even then, it has to scale up production. Meanwhile, one has to keep tabs on the price of iron ore [not sure if KDNC will sell at live spot or futures and therefore what will be the MEAN USED INTERNALLY BY KDNC to evaluate and make decisions from].
------SONORA- KDNC HAS TO NOW FIND OUT WHAT BCN-GAN PLAN TO DO WITH REM MEXICO LTD?------
Is the CONSORTIUM OF BCN/GAN GOING TO TAKE REM MEXICO OUT BY BUYING THEIR 30%.
Do KDNC want to sell given what D.Lenigas said about more with drilling?
How much is GAN willing [or BCN by extension] WILLING TO PAY?
Looking at how much GAN paid for 50% of SLL @ US$50M + VS VALUE IN THE GROUND AT US$114 BILLION, ONE CAN SEE DEPENDING ON HOW ONE ANALYSES THE FIGURES TO BE IN THE REGION OF 0.1% +. Usually, M & A IS 1-5% OF VALUE IN THE GROUND IN GENERAL ONLY.
Of course by then, the value in the ground may change. Its now a RACE TO START FIRST-Secker said so ie if one is not starting NOW IN 2021, then one is NOT going to be producing then. Its always SUPPLY PRODUCERS vs demand.
REM WAS NOT ABLE TO TAKE-OVER BCN
Whilst REM was not able to take over BCN at £1, that is a past event. However, given what I said about this 250 year supply @8.8Mt vs 9Mt Chile [No 1 reserve in the world] , nevertheless, it now means that with the new value-in-the-ground of some US$ 1 1 4 BILLION, REM*s share comes to some US$16.9 BILLION @ 30% on just what has been drilled. So, this is positive.
GANFENG
With all t
observer842
MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVES
The objective here is to try to get as accurate as possible the perceived value by which the market will evaluate KDNC from NOW on. I do not think that if Kiran Mozaria, CEO of KDNC were to approach the MM*s again as in the past, they would definately rate it to what we think it should be. Kiran M was able to get some value for the other projects rather than the standard MARK-TO-MARKET valuation, common to investment co*s. Some ,as you know trade on below mark-to-mkt.
AMAPA IRON ORE
Whilst this is the area of concentration right now for most people, this is not the hot area of investors attention. Why? Iron ore is NOT in STRUCTURAL SUPPLY DEFICIT ? I have to revise what I said about iron ore. The prices are said to be able to hold till the end of the year and so forth. Much will also depend on WHEN BRAZALIAN iron ore COMES BACK TO MKT and the DEMAND. So, it is a WATCHING BRIEF that one needs to do as one goes along as the situation can change per analysts forecasts. I am NOT keeping a close watch on this as I am not interested in iron ore for obvious reasons. Lithium on the other hand appears to be in SUPPLY TIGHTNESS and to jump 29.4% within a few weeks from observation tells the spot spodumene situation and the tightness that has been mentioned by Fastmarkets.
SONORA LITHIUM - REM 30% JV WITH BCN 35% & GANFENG 35% [SLL]
This is now blowing Mexican minds so to speak, hence all the hoo ha. Why is this?
As I said, the 8.8Mt of Lithium Carbonate vs 9Mt of Chile*s reserves of lithium. I found out post my post yesterday that CHILE IN 2016 HAD 7.5MT
-------AND IS THE WORLD*S LARGEST LITHIUM RESERVE.-------
That figure has obviously moved SINCE 2016 to 9Mt. Hence, why the Mexican article with an interview with Secker of BCN came up with the comparitive to Chile and SONORA GREATER LANDS.
THINK ABOUT IT - PUT ONESELF IN MEXICAN SHOES --------S O N O R A @REM
S I T S AT 8. 8 MT OF Lithium Carbonate WHICH EQUALS ALMOST THE ENTIRETY OF CHILEAN LITHIUM RESERVES R A N K E D N O 1 IN THE WORLD.
YES, IT SITS IN JUST 1 SPOT IN MEXICO CALLED S O N O R A.
David Lenigas*s old tweet which I found said that no one knew there was lithium at Sonora.
Further Mr Lenigas said that THERE IS MORE AT SONORA WHICH HAS NOT BEEN DRILLED YET.
THINK ABOUT IT. In the REM AGM, it was said by one poster on the main KDNC forum that it stunned people that Sonora had a VALUE-IN-THE-GROUND OF US$50B then. Well, it is now US$114 BILLION per today*s lithium price @$13k mid-price/t.
BCN DEFENCE
BCN told Mexican press a lot of things. Why? I think they are cognisant they have to provide a defence strategy instead of just sitting down and letting things roll on. Hence, they are putting out HOW MUCH MUST BE SPENT ON SONORA --SPECIFIC FIGURES NOT RELEASED BEFORE ie IN 10 YEARS : US$2BN. Also, they said that GANFENG provided the TECHNOLOGY. So, in other words if Ganfeng were not to own the
Hello @news. My understanding is that unless BCN and Ganfeng want to inject additional funds into the project then the intention is to organically grow it from 20ktpa (was 17.5ktpa) to whatever size the market can support and at a speed which will be dependent on profits from sales, e.g. to 100tkpa LCE and beyond.
They have raised the funds for the first stage, which according to the latest corporate presentation has a CapEx of $420m and a payback time of 4 years @$11,000/t LCE
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-Company-Presentation-March-2021.pdf
The next stage has a CapEx of $380m, and we have been led to believe this will be the CapEx of subsequent stages of equal production rate (was 17.5ktpa, now very likely 20ktpa) due to the modular design.
If Sonora is expanded to 100ktpa under the above model this would require a CapEx of approximately $400m * 5 = $2B. I'd expect most of this to be funded from profits (organic growth), but it's possible that it might be desirable to accelerate the growth in which case additional funds will be required - debt/off-take/equity/JV partners?
According to my understanding of the mining plan (see my post on here 22 Mar 2021 21:05) it is likely that plans beyond 50ktpa will result in our JV being mined earlier and in greater volumes than is currently planned as outlined in the Feasibility Study. Therefore it's pretty much a certainty if they are targeting 100ktpa over the next decade, which according to the local Mexican papers seems to be the case, our JV will be mined much earlier and in greater volume than envisaged in the current 19 year mining plan, assuming we are interpreting this correctly. :-)))))
I think we've speculated previously that it's possible that it might be more (speed/cost) efficient to start a stage at the bottom of the mining plan (in our JV region) and work upwards joining in the middle, rather than try to accelerate downwards into our JV with all the mining equipment getting in the way of each other, and having more earth to shift in the middle region IIRC (poorer stripping ratios). You might remember in the PFS there were two pits (North pit in the LV and South pit in the JV) which were combined into a single pit in the FS. Perhaps once Amapa completes and we finally land on our feet we'll be able to help fund this aspect, alongside Ganfeng? It's a nice thought, but I'd personally rather see us acquiring 20% of Amapa before putting too much effort into speculating about such possibilities! Though I'm sure there are many who would prefer I did now. LoL. Just a question of time and priorities. ;-)
Ob
Observer842
OK - reason accepted.
BCN told Mexican press the spend in 10 yrs is US$ 2 BILLION.
REM*s RNS which I quoted on this forum of the study they did with their own fund is that the NPV for SONORA LITHIUM LTD [SLL] was $ 2 . 2 BILLION FROM RECALL [with discount]. REM*S JV 30% - BCN 70% [before Feb 2021. After this date, BCN 35% & Ganfeng 35%]
Notice that it is NOT POSSIBLE to have NPV $ 2. 2 BILLION AND CAPEX OR CAPITAL SPEND AT US $ 2 BILLION?
BCN never did their own study as per Seeking Alpha stated.
BCN*S OWN VENTANA [88% of mine feed] - 50% JV with Ganfeng.
The NPV is around US$1 billion approx.
The capex is around US$400m.
So, a bit LESS THAN 1/2 ie capex vs NPV.NPV
It does not appear possible that CAPEX IS AS MUCH AS NPV.
The $2bn now disclosed by BCN to Mexican press is NEW INFO.
Only possibility is NPV is no longer US$2BN per REM RNS.
It could be HIGHER now but NOT known to REM OR KDNC CURRENTLY?
REM-KDNC *s 30% IS NOW SIGNIFICANT as BCN*s 70% has shrunk to only 35% with Ganfeng 35%.
You retweeted the twitter post of 8.8Mt @250 yrs [BCN TOLD MEXICAN PRESS THIS] and this is confirmed by REM*S OWN RNS.
At current mid-price of $13,000 for Lico, that works out to be US $ 1 1 4 BILLION.
We shareholders of KDNC know that BCN* own Ventana comes to around 4.5 MT.
So, the SONORA GREATER LANDS UNDER SLL [KDNC 30%, BCN 35% & GANFENG 35%] would come to 8.8Mt minus 4.5Mt = 4. 3 MT of LICO.
4.3Mt x US$13,000/t = US$ 5 5 . 9 BILLION.
REM-KDNC OWNS [?] 30 % OF $55.9 = US $ 1 6 . 77 BILLION
BCN OWNS 35% = US $ 19. 56 BILLION
GANFENG OWNS 35% = US $ 19.56 BILLION.
-------REM-KDNC OWNS ALMOST JUST AS MUCH NOW AS BCN/GANFENG---
===
BCN & GANFENG VENTANA [88% MINE FEED]
4.5 MT LiCo
4.5Mt x $13,000 mid-price [showed the source in earlier post] = US $ 5 8. 5 BILLION
BCN 50% SHARE OF $58.5 BILLION = $29.25 BILLION.
GANFENG 50% share = US$29.25 billion.
=====
DAVID LENIGAS-FOUNDER OF REM [new name KDNC]
I have tracked down his posts of earlier years when he said that there is still MORE TO DRILL.
So, the SONORA LITHIUM LTD [SLL] GREATER LANDS ARE BIG BUT DL DID NOT SAY HOW MUCH MORE CAN BE DRILLED AS CONTIGUOUS?
BCN TOLD MEXICAN PRESS 250 YEARS SUPPLY @8.8MT of LICO and also that Chile for example has 9MT of Lico [Chile*s entire reserves of lithium]. Chile, Argentine and Bolivia are in that lithium triangle but Bolivia has not started on lithium production yet.
You retweeted the above stats.
Just running it past you. I gave the REFERENCES TO CHECK.
Sun, 11 Apr 2021.
Sorry not editing as getting ready for breakfast.
By the way, as you know, there are many knowledgeable posters on the main forum where the audience is larger and where new comers look first. I'd personally prefer to post in a single place (as I've mentioned previously) where what we discuss will have a larger reach. I only look in on this site when I remember, which could be days, weeks or months!. Similarly for the REM one. LoL. ;-)
Hello @news. I'm incredibly busy at the moment. If someone has verbally said Sonora may get $2B investment over a decade then that equates to (roughly!) CapEx of 100ktpa facilities which is unsurprising given their (verbal) expansion plans which I quoted yesterday.
"China Mining Club - Bacanora Lithium" (19 Feb 2021)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnuOIfuEmOQ&t=930
===[
So we are going to start at a 20ktpa equivalent basis but we could easily expand to 50, or larger thousand tonnes a year.
]===
I noticed this morning that on the main KDNC forum, observer842 is talking about a possible upgrade to higher production from BCN.
However, Observer842 did NOT respond to my post about the discussing of the above title given BCN has put out new info to Mexican press - BCN posters have posted the article on their forum also.
LoL, I wonder why? So quick to correct but a invitation to discuss a KDNC investee project at Sonora Lithium is not taken up?
Sun, 11 Apr 2021.