Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
and it’s definitely not our 20% ownership of amapa that i’m waiting for... we can trigger that at anytime we choose... it’s the run up to... and successfully shipment of... the first load of amapa iron ore... by the end of q2 beginning of q3 2020... (ship sailing by 31st july 2020)... http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428203156429223 ...
you could probably decipher the latest planned sequence of events from pages 12 to 14... https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JUN-2020-PUBLIC.pdf ...
Frankie then news we are waiting for is that we own 20% of amapa and the shipping of the ore next. Then 27% onto 49% some dilution on the way is probably right. Selling of a jv would be better as they are very valuable and with the world changing much quicker than anticipated it could be soon. To be fair as OBs has said if it all goes to plan and the boxes get ticked. This could really be massive. Did the BOD earn the ****ging they have had ? Yes IMO water under the bridge now though onwards and upwards.
The presentation has the shipments starting in H1 2020 and that was only released days ago
That’s Within 3 weeks then
Dallas- exactly. Kdnc exists on aim to progress with equity dilution. That’s just how it is. The downside to the company is many fingers in many pies which need capital to progress. It’s just how it is and why the valuation here is too low.
Revenues from shipments changes everything.
@Obs/Dallas Thanks for your contributions. I have indeed been advocating early cap raise
before any "good news". Why? To have cash in bank as a safeguard against delay.
I know it is hindsight but by doing so in Dec/Jan we would have avoided sales of EMH, [-3%?]
and MMS which are we are told are good investments. EMH sales were well below current sp.
So from Dec to now we are still awaiting news of any shipment of ore stockpile. The circumstances
causing delay have been [and still are] out of our control, and we now have a dire situation in Brasil/Amapa
with CV19 infections/deaths rising rapidly and lock down restrictions.
If we had sufficient cash to cover outgoings and withstand any further delay I would be more relaxed.
40s jeez after all these years I still might get my Portuguese villa :)
@Dallas. I think it's simply a difference of opinion of how the market works. @Ivy appears/ed to believe we should attempt to raise funds *before* good news, which naturally (for AIM) would have been at a discount to the prevailing share price, whereas I (and presumably the BoD) believed we should raise funds *after* good news after a rise in the share price, but typically still at a discount.
In fact it played out as I hoped: we got good news, near quadrupling the share price allowing us to raise at 6p. I'm quite hopeful of another multi-bagging from here and wouldn't be surprised to see another discounted raise from whatever that peak is, though hopefully not so severe - assuming we don't sell an asset. Perhaps a peak into the 40's and a raise in the 30's? It's going to depend on how iron ore prices evolve this year IMHO, and of course assuming Amapa comes good for us! ;-)
Ob.
@Ivy...It's a small cap Co which doesn't generate income, it's listed on AIM to gain access to funds via placings etc to continue it's operations....
Maybe, just maybe, Amapa is the turning point.
Confidence in the BoD? KDNC don’t have any producing assets so how can they progress.
They have cash flows hopefully within weeks which marks a Turning point
@Dallasdaz It is indeed the same BOD as when I first invested here. However my confidence was eroded
from last December when it was obvious a cap raise was required.
I did state on 21st February post that "I am .....increasingly exasperated with BOD's naivety"
I have 5k to to invest Monday morning if the price drops and I get the chance to buy
Well I have another £10k to invest so will have another crack at avg down to 14.5p if I can but at 9.75p
Interesting point @Ivy... Sounds more like you have an entry and exit issue though. It's the same BOD you invested so heavily in not so long ago before divesting...
apologies again for this one too ob... badly written on my part... i obviously meant £2.1m... lol...
@mrcautious Agreed that should be so, but we have had to raise £525k at 6p per share
only a month ago. Confidence in the BOD is a key consideration.
Ivy - you'd have thought, considering how big Amapa can potentially be, that less 'painful' financing could be secured. My understanding of investment banking is that if you see an opportunity with massive potential you can rustle up some cash to finance it with a healthy level of interest....
@tomcat "using the $2.1m cln for the most of it..." I meant to question what you meant by this. We don't get any cash when the CLN is converted into shares - our debt is reduced.
@tomcat. I think it's always useful to examine both sides of the coin. Switching my deerstalker for something a little more cynical I'd say that if we do determine that the CLN holders were partly responsible for suppressing our share price this week by forward selling, then perhaps they are doing so in the hope they get issued $3.5m more around a similar or lower price?
The pros to the are obvious and not particularly risky, given the nature of the agreement. In terms of the cons it does mean that if they keep forward selling their CLN around 12-13p and the share price shoots up spectacularly beyond their control just before the next $3.5m is issued (it should be issued *after* news + re-rate, not before!) they may find themselves losing out on £2.1m they could have converted at 12p and sold at a much higher price had they not suppressed last week, and presumably any other times to come, and additionally they may not be called upon at the $3.5m stage if found out.
If they are a friendly bunch and have the blessing of our BoD (I'm sure @Bannor wouldn't put it past them! LoL) then the suppression gamble/agreement might be too tempting to resist, but on their heads be it if the market sees through their suppression attempt, or does so blindly, and smashes any resistance.
@tomcat If they did forward sell, do you believe it will be Monday we'll find out? Or do you think it will be later in the week?
Switching back to my deerstalker I remain hopeful it's all nice and straightforward with nothing underhand at play! As that never happens on AIM does it? ;-)
Ob.
with the urgency to repay the loan now gone... and the urgency to use the $2.5m we have put into the jrp escrow account... that went a couple of months ago... now that the small labour creditors are to be paid from the profits from the $10m net stockpile sales released by the courts... and the rest going towards the studies... puts the need to raise the additional $3.5m a lot further down the line too... makes me a lot more hopeful that they can start to raise at a much higher... and much more palatable share price... using the $2.1m cln for the most of it... plus dev’s loan repayment £525k (+1.5%/month)... how much more are we talking that we would need to raise now... to get to 27% ownership of amapa...
i thought a) initially... but then b) came to mind as a possible option based on the cln terms... and as noted... either way it has taken away the immediate pressure to raise the £2.1m to repay the loan... so i suppose it now depends on whether our loan providers still want to try to keep the sp suppressed or not... and for how long... i would think they will want to hold onto as many cln's as they can for as long as possible myself... so am now even more edging towards b)... there could even be an option c)... and it’s just the lump sum payment that’s delayed until april (plus interest)... with no further monthly payments to be made... keeping the maximum number of cln’s in hand...
"@Ivy. I agree, we do appear to be walking a thin line at the moment, trying to optimise dilution vs potential growth!"
Sorry that might not have been very clear. We had plenty of opportunity this week to raise a million or so which would no doubt have satisfied your concerns, but I believe as I presume our BoD believe that we'll be able to raise that, and then some at much higher share price when (they believe when, I believe *if*) Amapa comes good.
Ob.
@Ivy. I agree, we do appear to be walking a thin line at the moment, trying to optimise dilution vs potential growth!
@tomcat - you are right, I divided by 8 not 10. b) is possible, but I got the impression that a) was more likely.
Great to share research - I like being wrong perhaps more so than I like being right! :-)
how you getting it to £270k/month ob... £2.1m balance at 7.9% pa... 10months payments to april21... the two options i can see it could be repaid are... (rounded and ignoring 10/12x7.9% for a worst case calc)...
a) £2.1m + 8% = £2.30m / 10 = £230k/month...
b) £2.1m + 8% = £2.30m / 2 / 10 = £115k/month and a lump sum £1.05m payment in april...
@Obs I am with you on your summary.
I just wish we had more cash resources [and I have been saying so since last December]
to tide us over any further possible delay and on going expenses.