Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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Cuphalful, my thinking for revenue not coming to jog from day one is down to thinking the oil will need to be transported and processed before it's sold, presumably through its own Ltd company such as this https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14746451 there might be assets capitalised on their accounts and depreciation deducted such as maybe the Western Isles depending on who actually owns that along with other costs before what's left is distributed to the shareholders of Buchan, and Jog gets its 20%, which is what I'm not expecting to be on day 1 of oil being extracted hence my comment I'm guessing that is still at least 2 years off.
DO, if it's just 'rotten luck' and/or the fault of the
Conservative Anti- Democratic Socialists (CADS), then why are you so harsh towards our BoD and CEO? There's a certain similarity in your posts to the late JS . I might argue we have exactly the right experience to deploy the war chest effectively in the current BoD. Perhaps you can name an idle exec or two who you would be happier to see at the wheel.
Re:alsoppc - "Is it not just more simply Neo I assume won't be paying a dividend to Buchan shareholdeds from day 1 of oil coming up so it's still minimum 2, maybe 2.5 years, until Jog start to receive a proper revenue stream "
I need some education here Alsoppc - Wont JOG get 20% of the actual revenue from Day 1 to distribute or not how it pleases - what has that to do with whether NEO chooses to pay a dividend >
I would certainly be happy to buy back my sold shares IF Neo decide at FID to go ahead, that will be the moment of truth. Right now, nobody with half a brain would come into NS juniors when there is the slightest doubt about project financing being approved going forward. The NS is now no longer a "stable postcode" for E&P, because of the immense taxation/theft risk; therefore anyone looking to deploy capital will be looking at higher risk jurisdictions which have the potential for much higher returns to investors, and on balance I personally think there is a much better risk-reward profile in many other parts of the world than the NS. It's all really rotten luck for JOG, because noone could really have forseen that the CINOs would behave this way, at least in the beginning; but to me it seems the most sensible approach would be to get a new BOD and CEO with a focus on other more profitable parts of the world, and start deploying JOG's cash pile in areas which could actually lead to material gains (for shareholders I mean, rather than HMRC.)
Meeting milestones enough assurance neo will 100% go ahead? If I’m a new investor I would ask myself that, also the long wait as so eloquently defined by alsoppc below. I don’t know if there were any bid approach in the past being turned down by our BOD, but I hope by now they’ve been woken up by the share price reaction and accept the only way out of this misery is selling the company post fdp as discussed many times here before. Happy weekend all. Miss your posts Dick! Hope you’re keeping well!
Is it not just more simply Neo I assume won't be paying a dividend to Buchan shareholdeds from day 1 of oil coming up so it's still minimum 2, maybe 2.5 years, until Jog start to receive a proper revenue stream, that's plenty of time to wait and buy-in and if I wasn't already a LTH and seen how the SP can double I'd be tempted to come back in 12 months before buying in. If there was any hint of Neo not coming through on this I've no doubt the price would be closer or less than money in the bank like it has been in the past as without Neo in my view Jog are effectively owning 20% of nothing. Given they've handed out now 80% of their share and the conjecture of Neo not proceeding (which I don't see any reason why they wouldn't, the 'P' is afterall an integral part of any E&P company) it would still be interesting to know if there's any penalty clauses for delays within Neo's control to keep Neo honest on the progression or at least if Neo decided not to proceed something to say Neo have to give their share of the GBA back. In the meantime I'll keep my shares tucked away and hope someone sees the long term value and buys them for a sensible price, if not, either way in 2 years time I'm sure I'll be very happy with my investment.
I would love that to be true onthe6. If so as the milestones hit price will rocket
No interest in this stock because people aren’t sure if neo will proceed as planned. IMHO.
Donkey - my take is that the SP is low for a multitude of other factors I've posted before.
Neo pulling out is not at all factored into the SP. Evidenced by the fact that every time an RNS hits confirming milestones and everything on track, SP goes down.
Greener, with all due respect to you, if the situation was as clear and simple as you imply, the share price would be vastly higher. I doubt that ANYONE in the O&G industry would be in the slightest little bit bothered about whether they "p155 off the regulator" or not since the same government is hellbent on stealing all of the wealth generated by NS O&G companies in order to "p155" it away on feckless idiotic voters who apparently need the socialist state to pay their heating bills (presumably this ludicrous approach can be extended by LIEbour when they are in government, to include 80% windfall taxes on all supermarkets to pay voter grocery bills, petrol stations to pay voters' diesel and petrol costs, etc.) There's practically no end to the possibilities started by these vile and dispicable CINOs.
Given that a sale price is based on a multiple of actual and future earnings, and the buyer of Neo would have to be comfortable with accepting the current climate in NS, pulling the entire project team off GBA, scrapping a nearly new FPSO, and taking 50mm barrells of reserves off the balance sheet would not seem too sensible. It would also p155 off the regulator as GBA seen as flagship low-carbon project that makes a very strong argument to keep NS producing during the energy transition. It was also put a tax crosshairs on several hundred million dollars of Neo profits just when the last chance to dodge it may be soon.
Neo aren't pulling out! The only risk to shareholders cash is JOG's board. I feel shareholder register has a very strong hold on management.
Sunak ruling out May election today. That means October or November.
Until FID, it is entirely feasible that NEO could pull out. The few million they've paid to JOG thus far is chicken feed to a multi-billion dollar entity such as HitecVision. I cannot help but wonder if this desire to sell NEO is simply because of the decimated returns to be expected with higher Highway Robbery Extraction Tax for longer - why should anyone believe they will stop when they currently say? HMRC has proven itself, well the tw4t living in Number 11, to be completely fluid in extending the duration and increasing the percentage of these tax thefts against NS investors. Yes, oil is going to go up massively (especially when the little libtard tw4ts like Greta realize that there isn't enough oil to cover the world until we reach renewable nirvana, let alone beyond) and there is plenty of talk of it going up to $200+ per barrel at some point, but if you're invested in the NS all that means is that you're doing a lot of work in order to make the Treasury rich so that their lordes and masters in office can try and buy votes from the double digit IQ voters who have about the same level of intelligence as Benjamin Britten's cat Jeoffry! The outlook has changed, and quite possibly this time it really will be different (and not for the better.)
NEO aren’t pulling out. They have already paid Jog millions and plenty more to come. With the price of oil going up again I’ve started buying here again. Have a look at 88e! Oil sector is going up. Glah and dyor
"HiTec selling NEO is very different from NEO pulling out of Buchan"
That's my point. Is the interest in selling Neo tax driven?
HiTec selling NEO is very different from NEO pulling out of Buchan. If NEO ownership passes to another party, this doesn't mean NEO is pulling out of Buchan. It might be precisely because NEO has Buchan (amongst other things) that HiTec think they can get a good price for NEO.
HitecVision are looking at NEO's future. Is this just a tax arbitrage ?
At some point Neo will be producing vast amounts of cash and will be paying lots of tax on it (which ever government is in charge). However, if they reinvest in Green projects (e.g. wind farms) the tax rate is lower. So won't the obvious buyer or partner be a firm investing in green projects ?
Same article on Bloomberg is not behind a pay wall.
I can't think of a reason ( nor is there any suggestion) why NEO would want to pull out of the JOG deal just because NEO's current owners might want to sell them - the whole JOG/NEO/Serica enterprise still makes very good business sense.
From Bllomberg: " Norwegian private equity firm HitecVision is weighing options for UK oil and gas producer NEO Energy, including a potential sale, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
HitecVision is working with advisers as it studies strategic alternatives for NEO Energy, which could also include merging it with another operator, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.
HitecVision declined to comment. NEO Energy didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment."
MAYBE thats - merge with JOG !!!
I don't understand why Neo would want to pull out now after JOG has received $18mill. so far.It would be very unusual after completion of the farm-out wouldn't it?Are many people selling?
I’m hoping for 400. The only way for this going anywhere is selling the company.
Get lucky and get 300p for these, the analysts price targets look like a distant pipe dream -
Investors need reassurance from the company.
Neo have submitted the draft FDP - and pulling out would be very strange.
The PE model is to buy businesses, then sell them. That's how it works. A process would take 6 months to a year to complete. I don't see any reason to bail.
Will that be enough? The only thing we need is the development is actually happening. Everyone now fears Neo not going ahead. I don’t know much, but even after FID does that mean it’s definitely on? News like the link below doesn’t help either.
Down a bit further?
Until those at JOG responsible for IR (Tea Lady?) can convince an institutional investor to buy in, this stock will likely drift until some significant (FID, rig contract etc.) is announced.