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Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/547590/analysis-labour-windfall-tax-north-sea-values/ I read the Politico piece at the weekend and thought about posting but seemed overly gloomy, having just found this link perhaps it's not, it gives a few case studies with drops in portfolio value between 18-43%. Would be interested to see if the brokers revise their target price when labour get in, £4 might be a looking more realistic to me right now, with Labour wanting to make the oil cos feel the most pain possible and still a chance Neo might decide to moth ball and with the Serica signing dragging on. I'd love to see them bought out but I think cornishoilpirate has been getting over excited about his iminent takeover rumour and his 2 and 5 keys on his keyboard have become stuck together. If only Truss had the sense to cancel the white elephant that was HS2 at the same time as announcing unfunded tax cuts we might not be staring at a government who are getting ready for unfunded benefits increases instead
Big Bird's going to be the new Serica boss :-)
Sesame
Cornish - " Word on the street is JOG will be sold to a buyer once confirmation of Serica goes through. £25.00 per share being talked abot. "
Which street is this - Carey Street ?
Dick,
Turtley Cornmill fab idea. I go there all the time. Sale announcement as early as tommorow. Hence I will get the table booked. I hope that our other friend has a clean pair of paints
"The disingenuous comparison between the 78% Labour intends to charge with the rate charged in Norway where, to start with, operating expenses are 12% higher as a % of gross revenue than the UK,"..................
.....I meant to write "12% LOWER than the UK"
Put another way, the 78% rate Labour intends to charge UK producers in effect equates to 90% when compared with Norway.
It's important to remember though, that Labour is the "party of business and stability for their investments" and that "Our windfall tax will only apply while there are windfall profits being made. This is fair and proportionate."
There will never be a time, whilst Labour is in government, when "windfall profits" are not being made. If things were "fair and proportionate" the EPL would already have been scrapped. The "windfall" element of UK producers' profits disappeared within months of the spike that was evident for a few months following the start of hostilities in Ukraine, but this does not appear to have occurred to either of the main political parties, which have chosen the oil & gas industry to milk for all it's worth, regardless of the longer term consequences for the industry and for Britain. In reality they are relying on the ignorance of the vast majority of Britain's citizens, who mindlessly chant the "oil is bad, green is good" script, 365 days a year, year after year. Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.
It will be too late when the majority of oilcos have decided en masse to shun the UK in favour of countries who put the interests of their people ahead of cheap votes won with lies and deceit.
https://www.politico.eu/article/oil-gas-company-lash-labour-party-windfall-tax-plan/
...........as I have pointed out multiple times, all this "the world will end if we carry on using fossil fuels" is a con.
At present consumption rates, commercially recoverable oil (much of it formed as a result of the same event that wiped out dinosaurs and most other living creatures, inc all the earth's vegetation because the world was plunged into darkness for years) will run out. It took 64mn years to turn into recoverable oil and the gas emitting from it - and 3 or 4 generations of humans to use up the lot. Alternative forms of energy HAVE to be found - and governments don't want to have to pay for finding them.
Anyway, some more illuminating info:
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=what+daily+products+contain+oil&mid=A526FCFCC43254AD77D4A526FCFCC43254AD77D4&FORM=VIRE
https://listverse.com/2012/12/23/10-everyday-things-that-started-life-as-oil/
https://www.politico.eu/article/oil-gas-company-lash-labour-party-windfall-tax-plan/
..."but oil and gas companies are particularly concerned by plans to close what shadow chancellor rachel reeves called “loopholes” in the existing windfall tax. industry figures are concerned that this means labour would scrap an “investment allowance” which currently allows oil and gas producers to get 91p in tax relief for every £1 they invest in u.k. operations.
oeuk said scrapping the tax relief measures would likely result in no new investments being made into the u.k.’s oil and gas industry and estimated that the plans could imperil thousands of jobs and cost the u.k. £26 billion in “economic value.”
“with no new investment, 42,000 jobs will go, and we could start to see the effects as early as this year,” said whitehouse. “these are not faceless numbers but decent, hard-working people working across the u.k. to provide the energy we will need today and in the future.”
the industry group — formerly known as oil and gas uk — is demanding an “urgent” meeting with labour to clarify the party's plans.
a labour spokesperson said friday evening that the party's plans would "create good jobs in all parts of the country" and that the opposition represented the "party of business and stability for their investments"
“we have been consistent that a proper windfall tax means raising the rate of the windfall tax to match the rate in norway, abolishing the investment allowances inside the windfall tax, and that these changes account for the vast majority we would raise from a windfall tax," the spokesperson added. "our windfall tax will only apply while there are windfall profits being made. this is fair and proportionate."
'stunned'
other industry groups also voiced concerns. robin allan, chair of the association of british independent exploration companies (brindex) said labour’s plans were “an attack on the oil and gas sector and its 200,000 workers.”
god help us if this is just the start............
i'm already 7 figures down thanks to suna****. labour would see me in a debtors' jail. people's living conditions may well return to dickensian times, so why not the punishment system as regards people with no money?
the only answer is to quit the uk. it really is finished as a civilised first world country
dyor then joac (the last word is cliff)
......."delusional" is the word I'd use to describe Labour's "impossible to achieve" claims. Either they're liars, or they don't understand even the basics about oil & gas. Even if Britain's masses were willing to accept a significantly lower standard of living for the foreseeable future, brought about by a huge increase in the price of around 6,000 everyday products and services that rely on oil (more so than gas) for their production, they'd be unlikely to welcome (or put up with) the lack of availability of all kinds of goods and services that are part of their lives - and they like having. The good news is I can't find any link between oil and the inks used in tattoos - phew.
I could list a lot of such products, but why not dyor? It's reasonably straightforward. Oil isn't just used to make vehicle and jet fuel and to heat people's homes in an economic way - it's in thousands of products , affecting every part of UK folks' lives. When it comes to oil-based products, you'd have more difficulty finding something that doesn't contain oil, than something that does. Does the NHS use any plastic products, does anyone happen to know? Try pharmaceuticals - life-saving drugs? Cheap flights to wherever the masses can find that have had the good sense NOT to destroy life for its citizens for virtue-signalling purposes and a few billion of short term cash. Labour is intent on killing one of Britain's few remaining industries it can be proud of. One that employs hundreds of thousands of high-skilled workers, both directly and indirectly. The pretence that all these people can all just be redeployed on non-existent green projects that will all be up and working within 5 years is stupidity - or dishonesty - or both, personified.
The disingenuous comparison between the 78% Labour intends to charge with the rate charged in Norway where, to start with, operating expenses are 12% higher as a % of gross revenue than the UK, as a result of the significant difference in volumes produced in Norway's much bigger fields, really sticks in the craw. No mention is made about Norway's Govt bearing the risks of volatility in oil & gas prices by repaying any losses oil & gas producers suffer in any year, in cash and immediately. Cos know where they stand and are content with the net returns available because they allow decent profits to be made for owners benefit.
It may not be over yet as unions representing the workers whose jobs will be lost are far from happy with Labour's proposals.
I just hope a buyer will emerge to take on the risks JOG and all other producers face, but the price offered would be likely to reflect the circumstances. £25 a share looks a bit ambitious to me - I'd definitely take a £ or two less for my shares.
Further info in following post
dyor
GLAL
Cornishoil - check out the Turtley Corn Mill . Avonwick exit off the A38 and on the left after 250m along the road to Avonwick - ample parking plus good food & ale
Cornish, it’s supposed to be funny but sadly it’s not….
cornish, if jog gets sold for £25 a share i think i'd **** my pants :-)
In your dreams Ed.
Word on the street is JOG will be sold to a buyer once confirmation of Serica goes through. £25.00 per share being talked abot. And in connection with a new role for our current CEO, well we all know where there is a vacancy. No wonder both CEOs are increasing there share holdings . Hence any day now watch this space. This is the worst kept secret ever. I am off to have another pint at the Globe in Buckfastleigh. I hope to meet Dick there once JOG is sold.
The Labour Party will create Great British Energy, a new, publicly-owned clean energy company.
We will harness Britain’s sun, wind and wave energy to:
Save £93 billion for UK households.
Deliver one hundred percent clean power by 2030.
Cut energy bills for good.
Create thousands of good local jobs.
Deliver energy security.
Make the UK energy independent.
Labour will build an energy system for the future, run for the British people.
I think the backdating was always virtue signalling . The industry wouldn't take that without a long and expensive legal challenge. Hopefully the industry has made it clear to labour that their tax revenues will decline in the face of increased rates - more must be ready to up-sticks and go elsewhere. Others can always soft-pedal the extraction plans so profits are pushed out until govt of the day play fair. My guess is the debate about the Laffer Curve (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve) will be raging within two quarters of NS production profits & tax revenues once Starmer et al are in power.
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/09/rishi-sunak-latest-news-labour-green-pledge-starmer-live/so increased and extended but not backdated, could be better, could be worse.
Has just announced it’s raising the ‘windfall tax levy’ from 75 to 78%. No idea if there is a minimum level for the oil px to be for levy to be introduced. With Gas at multi year lows I’m not sure what profits there will be if oil falls in a similar fashion. Think I’ve also read they r closing ‘the loophole’ re investment- which I think might be v v bad news for tge industry.
Why bother to invest if you’re going to get taxed at 75 or 78%? Wonder why I bother to invest in anything sometimes?!
Onthe6
If it was a sale the sp would have crashed. I am inclined to agree with Rollo, (Today 10:31).
If it’s not a transfer, imho it’s more likely to be a sell. But it’s kind of good, hopefully seller is now gone. Good luck all. Up and up we go!
"Or just a simple transfer transaction?? Who knows."
Thats the most likely event between related parties.
Or just a simple transfer transaction?? Who knows.
Not sure. It was clearly late reporting. If you look at the price actions over the last 5 days, it slumped all of a sudden yesterday or since Monday, Tuesday? That suggests a huge sell. Now buy around 185. It connects the dots. Whichever, does it really matter? Current price is below 190. We want it to be way above. Good luck. The only way for the directors and longtime holders to make any money is to sell the company, timing as per Dick’s posts. I said this many times before but was shouted down. Have a good weekend!
Based upon this mornings activity and price movement the 400k trade was clearly a buy and it looks as though MM's depressed the price earlier in the week to accommodate those purchases.
A lot of recent trades shown as sales have been buys going through below the share price. I suspect these were also buys.
Seems odd for the price not to have budged, I've never bothered transferring shares to a family member but could it be one is a buy and another a sell on a stock transfer?