Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
BM - that's a pretty unpleasant post, not much of it supported by an evident understanding of how difficult and unpredictable it can be to run a junior oil co with very limited resources and a lot of outside factors to feed into the mix.
I've got used to putting up with the unsubstantiated nonsense peddled by JB, whenever there's a spark of life in the SP, but I'd have expected a bit more from you, given you're long in the shares and claim to have been around since the outset. This begs the question: why didn't you sell when the shares were near enough twice today's SP - which they have been on two or three occasions over the years?
Your comment about AB "failing to get signed disclosuresahead of the last fundraise" reveals a naivety that's generates a degree of sympathy for you finding yourself in water that's a bit too deep for your comfort. Are you sure you're cut out for this game (ie investing in oil juniors on AIM)? Do you not think you'd be wise putting your money into a Post Office savings account? I understand they're paying more than 2.5% in interest, which isn't to be sniffed at in these straitened times and there's no risk involved.
dyor
Everyone is entitled to their opinion . However , if what you’re saying is true then why has RL continued to hold his shares . When he got ousted he would have been the first one to sell up . In any event the ex Ithaca team wouldn’t put their name against a bum investment , so your opinion doesn’t match up . Are you sure your not Briggs ??
I disagree on the shareprice not moving on FO news, we've seen it double in October in a short space on no news so something tangible I think could drive a re-rating. At the moment JOG has a licence for a relatively significant asset but with no means of delivering it, the FO should at least confirm a credible delivery partner and the residual proportion of the asset JOG will continue to own, even if the timescales remain fuzzy they're 2 big current unknowns that if answered would remove a large chunk of the speculative element of the stock in my view. All that of course on the assumption a FO is signed which if it isn't then I'm sure it will have an equal affect in the opposite direction GLA
It isn't too often that I find myself agreeing with you, JB, but on all of this I must say I am inclined to agree:
Aim investors always seem to completely ignore caveats about things not being done til they're done;
Bungling Benitz has certainly managed to screw things up in the past, from his 2021/2/3 Year of JOG claims (boy who cried wolf?) through to failing to get signed disclosures ahead of the last fundraise which resulted in the placing getting away at a much lower price than intended;
The Vernier debacle seems to have completely passed some by vis a vis Benitz's credibility, which I would agree is pretty low these days if not completely non-existant.
Assuming this eventually gets a farm out, what will be next? JAB awarding himself huge pay rises for delivering shareholder value, even if the sp continues to languish? I see no reason for the sp to double or triple on news of a farm out as it will simply result in many years of delays waiting for revenue to arrive during which time I expect the leaders here will have milked most of the cash out of the company in ever higher salaries.
So much for those of us who bought into a company which was going to pick up cheap late life production assets, JOG hasn't produced a single barrel of oil in all the years I've owned my shares. Yet another Benitzism, which seems to be rapidly becoming a synonym for liar.
They would know that and have to call it early.. I dont think its them...
I think its either Harbour (waiting for the floor) or Ithaca, personally think more likely the latter
WDIK
DYOR
IMHO
Ha ha ha Briggs .
There is a four letter word and you are full of it !
So with Benitz's 16-week "certainty" coming to a close very shortly many are relying on yet another speculative milestone to pass (the other 5 were false prophets). The narrative goes that this is because this deal is really complex and hammering out the finer details has taken longer than the esteemed CEO has expected (is that hubris or naivety?).
So whilst many rely on the "certainly by the end of Q1 2023" wording from the ever-reliable and overly confident Benitz in the 29 November 2022 RNS, what is often overlooked is the forward-looking statement which I share here for those who don't read further than the hype:
This announcement contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to the usual risk factors and uncertainties associated with the oil and gas business. Whilst the Company believes the expectations reflected herein to be reasonable in light of the information available to it at this time, the actual outcome may be materially different owing to factors beyond the Company's control or otherwise within the Company's control but where, for example, the Company decides on a change of plan or strategy.
Those of you who have been around long enough (but don't care to talk about it) should also be reminded of the infamous Verbier "surprised and disappointed" blinder RNS from the same once uber-confident CEO who had previously intimated untold riches!
Buyer beware - this is AIM - missed deadlines, poor comms - never good.
All IMHO
Surety - Serica results due 13 April.
You have to believe they have a deal of sorts. Otherwise they surely would have had to flag by now - its too close to the end of Q1 otherwise..
I think there are two key questions
i) When does the floor news land from the government (Reuters says end of this month). Are the farminees waiting until then, so to not fuel the 'no floor is required' rhetoric..
ii) Who else has a market update scheduled next week, beyond Ithaca? Are they waiting for this
DYOR
Its starting to look a little better now pilgrims, deadline of end of Q1 fast approaching, so an update is surely pending for us the long suffering.
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Value
23-Mar-23 08:33:39 195.00 2,000 Buy* 3,900 O
23-Mar-23 08:15:49 194.00 2,000 Buy* 3,880 O
23-Mar-23 08:06:58 192.75 4,000 Buy* 7,710 O
23-Mar-23 08:05:14 190.00 2,000 Buy* 3,800 O
23-Mar-23 08:02:54 190.00 256 Buy* 486.40 O
22-Mar-23 16:33:59 187.00 5,000 Unknown* 9,350 O
22-Mar-23 16:33:59 187.00 -5,000 Unknown* -9,350
As I've said previously, if I was betting - which clearly I am on AIM ;-) I would have guessed this was their backup plan (and maybe why the NSTA waived through licence extension, and the Nomad the narrative)... but they were trying to strong arm someone else into a 2022 year end close out..
Who knows? Hopefully we will shortly
DYOR (and before you say it JS, no - I have no idea more than anyone else!)
Interesting, Varnish
It would also line up with the floor announcement from the government (by end of month), assuming the Reuters post was accurate last week.
DYOR
Exactly it isn’t a coincidence why Mr B has taken on ex Ithaca team . Very tightly held stock as soon as news lands the share price will re rate and todays price will seem a bargain .
If there is any link with Ithaca - and, based on JOG's non-execs that's surely within the realms of possibility - Ithaca's results next week would seem a reasonable time and place for farmout news to appear.
If conversations had materially broken down i'd have thought an RNS would be required. In the absence of that, one can only infer all hands must be at the pump trying to get something over the line
Sorry now moved to Thurs next week..... & still in Q1.
LTH but first time comment.
Results due from Ithaca next Wednesday (were always going to be in Q1?). With an 'unwavering commitment to the North Sea' they seem an ideal partner for JOG and like all of us I hope a deal can be done.
Let us hope there is no need to prepare to shed tears as a JOG shareholder.
I expect the next RNS will be "talks progressing well, more time needed" and another arbitrary date into the future, say end of Q2. This will allow the next RNS after that to also announce a placing to keep the lights on whilst they complete their deal. At some point I hope shareholders will reach the limits of their tolerance and boot out the board and bungling Benitz but I am not hopeful that they won't be pacified by just one small extension at a time.
And yes, if wrong very willing to apologies, as a shareholder I would actually do so with a smile on my face as it implies a deal will have been done within their own self imposed timeline.
Sounds rather like Marc Antony after the death of Caesar : “ If you have tears, prepare to shed them now…”
I too remain Everhopeful…
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Pierre-Andurand-Oil-Prices-Will-Hit-140-This-Year.html
If you have deep pockets and you are not near death's door then nowt wrong with JOG. Just got to get the politicians to stop nodding along to Schawbs WEF green BS.
MP.
I also have these twits on filter. JOGs a decent enough board except for those two.
Thst said, JOG is a speculative punt for me. Its impossible for me to weigh up the for and against argument and come out with anything more than large caps think in terms of multiples of years, SunakHunt are temporary. Winfall tax, temporary. Lots of capex needed here but 200m+ barrels... someone will/should want it. Happy to have spun the dial at ~180p and see what happens. Anyones guess... Find out within 28 days IMO.
Good luck.
Just my opinion.
CBee.
Me too. But spare a thought, care in the community and all that: https://youtu.be/rRZ-IxZ46ng
awash with green messages JS and Briggs have been Farmed Out
You are a PH Briggs full of it !
Very tightly held stock… PMSL