The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi Rosewall. I'm no expert so kind of learning as I go along using basic principles. I don't want to buy now but am looking for a bit of exposure.
This is what i'm seeing.
The FTSE follows basic charting principles the same as anything, in fact as it's a huge collective it should follow the rules more rigidly, however and this is a big problem, the spikes and fluctuations can take anyone out in the blink of an eye.
As Kalan was quick to point out a while back. The FTSE follows the Dow or US 500 etc like a lamb so this also has to be taken into account. Charts look very similar to me which backs up this theory and is also pretty logical for analyst types out there.
So there are 2 obvious ways to play. Day ranging. shorting the highs or buying the lows if you think you can see them. A quick buck, I could have closed yesterday at £300+ and even now i'm £200 up. This is highly likely to be how most play the indices nicking a few quid here and there. With tight stops this is manageable but a lot of stress and I imagine becomes a bit of a habit that you probably don't want to get attached 2.
The 2nd is the long haul. If you think the ftse is on the way to 5000 at even a couple of quid a point that's £1400+ from the high this morning and in this climate we could get there as quickly as we came (ie a handful of days etc). However the big draw back is getting it off the ground. Tight stops get taken out PDQ as per my trade yesterday (doesn't matter as it's showing me the way) but loose stops if your wrong is going to cost a packet.
I'm favouring for this trade to give it 3 chances to get it off the ground with tight stops and in my case an accumulative risk (say £200 £40 yesterday, £80 today and another £80 for my final trade if it defies and continues it's trajectory upwards) so a kind of hybrid version and not unlike buying or selling in tranches to cover a wider range. If it starts running then I can be flexible, put trailing stops on etc, all that jazz.
There's also charges on ex divi days so you have to take that into account too and I haven't got the experience to tell you what the ex divi date for a few companies on 2nd April will cost.
I will report back. If It doesn't work I'm seriously missing how to catch the top or my methodology is incorrect and I would be skinning a few pips during day ranging. I'm quite happy to admit I'm cautiously playing this by ear as I go !
TC
This may be the wrong board to discuss the shorting of the FTSE but pleae carry on. This is an area I know little about so I am learning.
I'd hope they can't move the entire FTSE Speedy but know what you mean. I'm not a fan either but there's the possibility I can risk 40 or 80 quid at a time on stops etc and if I pull it off it wouldn't be impossible to make £500-£1000 on a nasty bear plunge. Sounds like a good 'bet' to me and that's what it is. I'm well aware that most people lose on IG so I'm very much respecting my stakes. Good day to you Speedie. I know you like you're gold. I'm wanting after CEY as a definsive stock but the price is too high at the moment
Hi Topcatz. I have used IG in the past for a gold punt and used a stop loss, bad decision, IG can see your settings and will take the price up or down to hit them. Its akin to having a bet on the outcome of a football match where the ref can add or take away goals. Good luck to you and only use it as entertainment. ATB Speedy
Thanks mate,
Just trying to nick a few quid here and there until I'm ready to commit properly. No one knows where the bottom is of course and lots think we've already bounced off it but plenty don't. Good luck
No need to apologise TC - it's interesting to hear what your up to in these unusual times
I'll probably regret this but i've slapped another short on at 5700 (IG which was probably 5710 in the real world). Pierced the top of the middle bolly band which it's respected during the downtrend). If it doesn't it's suggesting higher still which is hard to fathom. Stop 5740 (IG), so £80 on the line.
I'm going to allow myself one more if I get this wrong and then walk away so I'm willin to risk £200.
Last post on shorting the ftse I promise as I realise this is not the bb for it
Absolutely Kalan, I will be interested to hear what you come up with because the money will be in predicting the rallies. As you say there's probably more chance of any decline being punctured with decent buying spikes sucking in punters on the way, so getting in (and out) early on those could be really profitable. That will be trading phase 1. Phase 2 will be spotting the absolute bottom or shortly after etc and building a top quality portfolio to double, treble, or quadruple etc.
Sounds easy on a post doesn't it :)
looks like another up day on the cards but it's running out of steam. 5725 could be another ceiling if the bulls are losing enthusiasm
Herd not heard - dumbo, time for bed.
It's interesting stuff TC - my problem with this short term stuff is that if I back a winner then I tend to sell out too early and bank the profits. My strength is that I have learnt to take the hit when I get it wrong. I don't short so my opportunities in a falling market are few and far between.
Note your comments on the heard being a bit slow on the uptake - saw a commentator discussing the markets on Bloomberg and he was talking about much further to go down and the time frame being longer than most think - but he also said that in bear markets you often get 20% jumps in the indices - so worth trying to predict them - going to have a study of past bear markets to see if there is a discernible pattern in the heard behaviour. It should be around for about 3 years so better know the beast. To think that a 10 year bull market will be followed by a one month bear market looks rather optimistic - but still some shares doubled in last weeks rally so go with the heard when they are buying.
Closed out at a small loss. Should have booked the early profits but I thought that was just the start and I could let it run and run. I imagine it will plummet now. I'll watch for the MACD signal and then try once more if it doesn't. Sorry about the off topic everybody. Just putting it out there whilst it's quiet.
Just set the trailing stop at 5555 so i'm allowing myself to bomb out at - £40. I can live with that. Want to make sure I sleep well :)
You are right of course Kalan, but i've been here before and underestimated how stupid the collective market is. It can sometimes take an age for it to catch on. It could be stupid enough to drive the FTSE up to around the 6000 mark on pure optimism as you say. If it ever got there then that would have to be the short of the century. Just checked the ex divi dates and there is nothing until the 2nd of April for the FTSE so if i'm still up at close of play I might put a trailing stop around where I opened it just in case there's an after hours plunge at the tail end of Dow Jones trading. If it's hit no damage done and a valuable lesson in not being greedy but will give me a chance to let it run if it's winning. I guess anything around 70/80 pips on a day should be snapped up. You live and learn. Trading the indices is not something I want get too involved in. Don't think my nerves can handle it haha
Trust no-one but yourself TC - I think you have it right - too many people still think the virus numbers will fall and then we go back to work with little long term damage done and then it's boom time again. I would give that scenario about a 5% chance. The stockmarkets are usually out of tune with the economy - last week was another example - people think that Governments can print money and make it alright and so they buy and others join in and so on. Until the effect runs out and reality starts to dawn and then they are rushing for the door again. Even Trump realises it ain't going to be over by Easter so maybe just maybe the penny is beginning to drop across the pond.
Just realised IG have a margin of what looks like about 10 points above for selling ftse too as I've got the Trading View chart up and it's 10 points lower. I knew there was a reason i don't like spread betting firms
Cheers Kalan
I placed it pre open at 5538 as I couldn't believe that it was up and could have closed it for £300 + within half an hour! Still over £100 but want to let it run for a bit as I'm sure the shyte will have to hit the fan big time soon. Undecided whether to leave it overnight too as they charge when ex-divi dates come round due to the natural drop off the next day etc. Haven't used the old IG account for ages (not a fan) but the fact I can't see a long for love nor money lead me to shorting the lot in one fell swoop ! - Don't really understand the psychology over the pond though so I'm hopeful rather than confident that they start waking up to the economic devastation in front of us as I'm in agreement that the dow will lead the way North or South.
PS. Centamin too strong for me. I want some but want 110-112 and am standing firm on that
It often dips into the US opening on nervousness. Good luck.
A speculative £2 per point bet this morning. It was nearly 30 points up before opening. Risky as it's not a confirmed sell but i'm betting it's on the turn. GLA