Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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hi all.... some insightful comments here, as always. Kalan your calls sometimes amaze me. Should of taken your cue and turned to cash a month ago, currently 45% down on my gold and silver equities, very stressfull…. thinking about taking a heavy hit and rotating half into the physical gold and silver in case we see another sharp drop? or just sticking it through over the next few months? I see JLP also taken a beating...
Following this discussion with interest (purely academic, as I currently have no spare money to invest or risk.) I do note, however, that some professional wealth managers are now moving clients money from defensive securities (bonds etc) into FTSE and Dow tracker funds. Only time will tell, of course, but it's these people's full time job to get it right.
I concur with all you said TC - especially the bit about us being fodder. Sold GLR at 0.46p and haven't really looked back with Zinc falling. Could be something to be announced or just a few punters having a gamble. Can't see the project actually getting off the ground in the short term if we are right about what the markets are going to do next.
If FTSE goes up next week I will cut my losses and try again later for the big fall.
Yes - thanks Speedie - there is a warning from my broker when you buy this kind of product so I am aware but please don't hesitate to tell this Grandad how to suck eggs - any advice or help is greatly received.
As for deaths - the UK had 26,000 deaths due to flu last year. The predictions to get to herd immunisation were from 250,000 to 500,000 deaths in a year. We have gone down the route of letting it get hold a bit for some immunity and then locking down to keep the numbers down. Mr witty said that limiting deaths to 20,000 from Covid-19 would be remarkable but it seems it may be possible in the short run. The question is how can we sustain the economy through the next waves of the virus until a vaccine is available. The Government are having to react to newly gained knowledge but from what I have seen so far I trust them to do their best taking into account all factors, some of which conflict.
In Sweden they have gone for letting the virus spread and just isolating those in most danger to keep deaths down. The USA was giving it a bit of a blasé 'it's not all that bad' attitude, helped by Donald whose main priority is re-election and therefore the economy. They have reacted belatedly to minimising deaths as he has come to realise it may affect the election outcome if their death rate is say 10x that of other countries such as Germany.
We won't know for a few years who got this right but I think we need some normality in the Summer before we tackle another lockdown or Swedish type lockdown for the vulnerable next Winter.
Hi Kalan - Not heard of UK2s before so will have to take a look at that. I reckon you should be good there. American fund managers seem to still have their heads in the sand but Bloomberg are definitely chiming a different note !
My chart is highly likely to be a load of knackers but it's pointing to some decisive price action early next week. Been taking advantage of the resistance I'm seeing with some quick 5/2 day trades. £1 shorts with 20pt stops and 50pt limits. Got 3 out of 4 in which I'm well happy with. The loser was my first and probably final go on the S&P500. Any trade book will tell you the S&P500 is notorious for fake rises and very difficult to trade for non pros. That little 'text book' trade showed my I'm just fodder. That's fine. I know my place.
Anyhows the running short still going nicely and I think there will be a decent break either upwards or downwards within the next few days. More weakness should also coincide with the MACD signalling a sell which will add fuel. The percentage call has to be downwards but who knows in these crazy times. On the way down there may be a little support for the FTSE around 5290-5300 on the fibs but I doubt it will be too significant. After that 4950 and then 4300 (moving downwards daily). After that a look at some old historical data would probably be useful (or fib extensions). Assuming the downward slide continues we probably need to look out for rallies. Note the RSI is happy to wallow in oversold territory if the mood takes.
On a JLP note GLR is showing some interesting price action so there may be some JLP/GLR news on the horizon. Positive for JLP, more positive for GLR I would think so if the rise isn't fake (doesn't take a lot to move GLR) then one to watch.
Keep me posted. All teamwork, observations etc greatly appreciated
Have a good weekend all
Hi Kalan. Watch out for the compounding effect in shorting X2. Not a problem if you are closing out each day but be very careful of holding for longer, probably telling granny how to suck eggs, but beware. ATB Speedy
3card, the USA is possibly looking at the death toll being in the 100's of thousands, even Trump has been suggesting less than 200k would be a good result. Quite a change from claiming it was a hoax not so long ago.
Hi Hawk. Just as a matter of interest what level of deaths would you regard as catastrophic? Not a flippant question. Just curious to understand people's views on how serious CV is. Hopefully not looking for answer that one death is too many though.
Yes the dangers are all around - so being careful with the amount and the scale factor - the problem with cutting production is that Trump is trying to orchestrate a cut to save the US oil producers. The others can just kill it off by not agreeing to cuts. he would have to sweeten the deal for Saudi, Abu Dahbi, Russia et al. Also the Chinese move to buy cheap oil and store it is a double edged sword in that it creates demand but lowers future demand and prolongs the oil price drop. The short term twist and turns will bring up surprises but surely the direction of travel is down overall.
Interesting predictions Kalan, I hope the FTSE doesn't fall that far, but good luck to you if it does. Think you're right on the USA not factoring in the damage yet, but a bit too risky for me to guess on what that will translate to on the markets. Donald Duck has just been too slow to recognize that the virus a major problem, and I still don't think he grasps the enormity of the situation, their death toll is looking like it'll be nothing short of catastrophic. Look out for an OPEC announcement on Monday though, a new deal between OPEC, Russia and possibly the USA to cut oil production is on the cards. That could very well see markets bounce upwards, at least in the short term.
Spot on moneyhawk. Need zinc and copper prices to bottom before we can begin to assess the viability of Sable with 3rd party or Kabwe waste - a lot of clarification needed and time needs to pass before I get back into JLP - looks quite secure for holders though.
Joined TC in shorting the FTSE with £5,000 through SUK2 (avoiding spread betting as I haven't done it before and the mantra in a crisis is 'stick with what you know'). SUK2 aims to short the FTSE so any fall is doubled in your share value and vice versa. There is also a LUK2 which is for the FTSE bulls. Other shares and funds are available which can do 3x the movement long or short. Restricting the amount of money and the multiple to x2. Being very cautious - bought at 1.30pm and 5 seconds. Straight after the USA jobs report which they had at an estimate of -1,000 jobs but it came in at -7,000 jobs. The reality looks worse for the USA than they are factoring in to me. It looks like I have jumped the gun as the indicators haven't turned yet but they look like they are poised. The FTSE is back in 'correction' territory rather than bear market which looks ridiculous given the circumstances. Still predicting 3700 to 4300 on FTSE and 1600 on S and P 500. A bit of a contrarian on this one given recent market strength but history does chime if not repeat and history says there's a long way to go in this bear market.
Up the JLP. GLA.
Personally I'm expecting this year to be a write off for seeing that ramp up in profits. Fully expect to see the timetable for Kabwe delayed now. The priority now should be to the maintain whatever current production we can continue with, reduce costs and conserve cash until the world gets back to normal. Huge shame, the interim's had us on course for a decent profit this year, paving the way for even bigger gains next year. Profits for this year are obviously going to be reduced now from previous expectations, but at least we know we're in an excellent position to pick up from where we left off when the crisis is over.
Thanks Ronaldramp
2020 will be a defining year for JLP
With Kabwe coming fully into flow revenue and profits should increase dramatically
This should finally all reflect in the shareprice
I still expect this shareprice to hit double figures this year
5 to 6 bagger from here come christmas
thank so much il have to wait good luck to all shareholders
Hi Tiverton. I think the annual allowance is 20 K so if you haven't maxed it out already this year you can buy whenever you want. If you have used your allowance for this year already then you can add another 20k on April 6th.
best
hi all just wondering when can we buy into our I S A accts thanks
good luck with it - survive and prosper - we need you to pay taxes for the next x amount of years to pay for it all.
Ha, Thanks Kalan. That's about the long and short of it. Unfortunately small businesses that don't operate the PAYE system (much love by any government for obvious reasons) may not be quite as valuable and when you need to act fast you cover the majority - I get it so I have to roll with the punches ! Meanwhile I still have my short open on the FTSE, I'm learning a lot this week by monitoring it and I ve modified my chart a bit. My upper tramlines off this steep decline are being well and truly respected (5510 today) so if it continues I may be able to work with it. Incidentally the FTSE looks puffed up to fk and is skirting the top line. The bottom of the is roughly 4300 ! More chance of going down there than breaking out in my opinion so useful guidance for share trades too. Ig charges are small overnight but they took over £19 last night for the ex divi date effect (mm mark down). I'm pleased to say, and I can only assume it's because some of the 4 companies won't have paid divis that they reduced this charge to under £6 and reimbursed the difference this morning so they re not all that bad.
Good luck with everything
Good luck with the business TC - keeping a close eye on my brother in law who is a sole trader - he doesn't seem to make good business decisions so trying to act as a sounding board for him. (He owes me money). My son is at home on full pay and doing a fifth of the work he did previously and my daughter is at home on full pay most of the time. My step daughter has no overheads and has been put on leave / working from home on 70% wages, step son at home on 80% - all four have had a go at whingeing to some extent - but like you say - it looks like a paid holiday to me. Back in the 80's about 50% of the people on my street with bills and mortgages to pay were unemployed, with many on strike for a whole year - so things are much easier now. We should all think about the small businesses who do not have the benefit of the government riding to the rescue (although I think what the government has done is a remarkable response) - good luck with it - survive and prosper - we need you to pay taxes for the next x amount of years to pay for it all.
Hi TopCatz. IG create their own spread and sometimes that is huge, they do this to hit stops. They can see where your trades are, long or short, and move their spread to aim for your stops. It matters not a jot to them what price is shown on the LSE. They can move their spread any % they want. My punt on gold was very very small just to try out their system, i had a stop at 20% below spot and the spread was increased for minutes to hit the stop then closed me out only to return to normal levels. They are bent in the extreme. Give them due credit for warning punters up front that they will lose their money. ATB Speedy
They use the LSE and make their money on the spread, same as MMs. I may have been mistaken the other day when I said their FTSE pricing was different from the LSE. I think the chart I was using with real time prices may have had a hitch.
I know what you mean about the spikes that you can't detect. Previously I've had the same conversation with someone and they assured me there was one trade (a sell with a tail like you see on a candlestick chart). I checked later and it was true.
Best Policy is to work out your stops either way and add a bit more. It's tricky but it all falls into 'getting your trade off the ground' hence probably best to expect more than I go. It's the worst thing in the world to get stopped out by a fraction to see the trade go on and make you a 'virtual' fortune. I'm sure it's happened to us all !
Hi Topcatz. Where do IG get their prices for the FTSE from is it LSE or their own in house dealing prices? I have seen IG prices on commodities go past the high and low, to my cost. ATB Speedy
Morning Kalan
I hope your Mum and Dad will be ok
I imagine most households and close family can echo the situation in your house. I have a small business set up as a limited company. I take salary up to threshold and draw the rest of my pay in dividends. A lot of small business's and one man bands are set up as ltd companies. We fall into the pocket of people with very little help. We may be able to furlough ourselves for a couple of months and get about £500 a month for April and May but have to prove we are only continuing with basic statutory duties to keep our company going. I can't survive on that and we are losing business hand over fist. At the moment I'm spending most of my day wrapping up business going out the door with a smile and a bit of begging in the hope that they will be all coming back in 3 months time. Some will, some won't. Net outcome we earn practically nothing for a few months and then have to rebuild the business. It won't take as long as starting out but we're talking a few more months patching it up. We have some cash reserves in the business so we can hobble along for the next 2-3 months. If it lasts much longer we are in real trouble. Luckily I have my 'new house' savings so no one will be starving for a while in my house but it's a blow. There will be lots of small businesses in the same boat. My Mrs works for BUPA so she's alright and most other members (brothers etc) are on 80% but one in particular working for a builders supply merchant is very worried about losing his job. You are spot on and every household can probably relate and even those working for larger companies at home on 80% (sounds like a holiday to me) will probably find that there will be a percentage of lay offs in many blue chips after this. In short the economy will be in real trouble. Anyhow my 'bet' seems to be off the ground and running now and this is definitely a down day. As you say, a wobble or the continuation of the downward slide on the indices.
Good luck. CEY possibly coming in to range over the next few days
Top 'very interesting' Catz - keep us informed - looks like a 1 or 2 % drop may be on the cards at the off tomorrow but overall looking steady to me - do you steady yourself and then wobble a bit before you fall - I do when I have had a few - still think the markets are drunk on optimism.
So far my family is ok - no-one has the virus confirmed but my mum (77) has a cough and both her and my dad (79) are going to be tested they think tomorrow. On the finance front - my daughter is mostly at home on full pay and so is her husband. My son and his partner are both working as normal. My step daughter is working from home on 70% wages and my step son is working from home on 805 of basic salary. My brother is at home on no pay and trying to get benefits. If this is repeated across the country for 2 to 3 months then the economic downside has to have lasting effects - the consumer is not going to be spending a lot when we come out of this - never mind if we get a second and third wave. Anyway - the herd says up - so up it is - until it isn't. Waiting.
*better of skinning a few pips that should read a,nd of course you're and not your *