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That's the silliest answer I have heard.
If chrome goes to $550 and PGM's go to a basket price of $10,000 dollars it will take even less time.
I do think Copper will get to $12000 eventually, but when you hear these Sultans of the market preach that XYZ will maybe go to ZXY they are talking up their own book and are very rarely correct, it's just noise. Even Golman aren't preaching that price
If £1.20 was the top of mount Everest we are at the bottom just putting a team of sherpas together.
C'mon Roan:)
If copper goes to $15,000 it won't take long ....
Shulvin
I hope you had a good a Pesach, the mount of shares DO matter as I posted in my first email today.
Gotreal that would have to be £250 million after Tax amortisation etc etc. Again I hope your correct, I even hope your correct if we get to half of the 60p. It's funny that there are always more than 2 types of people pessimists, optimists
and realists. You have Mikie and Gotreal in one corner, you have Lenard Cohen in the other with Suzanne in the pessimist corner and then you have Gray1,Dorfan Frokid and the wonderful MOI in the other
No I'm not Shuvlin just that 3 billion shares at £1.20 a shares is a £3.6 billion company really? I have posted my eps expectations for the next financial year a while back so I do know the difference.
Even in 5 years I'm not seeing the kind of net profit to bring this about but you maybe right I maybe wrong. We can only wait and see.
CAML have a current PE ratio of 13; SLP is 16. JLP today is 14. A bottom line profit of £250 million would push the SP to £1.20 @ 14. And you say that is never going to happen....??
If we can make 15 times the present profits Grey there is absolutely NO REASON why we cant get to £1.20 per share and before that we would have a better name in the business and future earnings would be taken into account in the sp. You are another one that seems to be mesmerised by the number of shares in issue.
Just for you Ardbeggar.
Bang on Dorfan
Gray, I think within a couple of years JLP will be in the position to do share buybacks which should support a higher upward curve in terms of the SP.
Possibly the holy trinity of growth, buybacks and a dividend (over time!) but all things in due course.
ATB
Northern
Hi Eddie
It makes sense to me that cost of copper production has risen from $4000 to $6000 per ton as now material is coming from third parties(small miners) and they need to get something for their material.As usual communication is not the best and if am right that needs to be stated in a RNS
I like how we are adopting the tagline 'Cmon Roan' now. I will do so going forwards.
Cmon Roan.
Gray1
Fully agree with you, when you consider that we were 22p admittedly in a better market, as the Palladium price and some other metals were very high, in a way we have replaced this type of profit with Chrome and then the Copper goes on top.
I think that although there are many more costs and greater control functions etc etc they should consider going onto the main market when they feel the time is right, mainly because the AIM market is so bad and having a near death experience. This will create a greater market for our shares . My hope is that because of the above calculations we will return to our highs of 22p sooner rather than later
We won't get to £1.20 Edzi we have 3 billion shares in issue certainly not in the next 5 years or more but 30-50p maybe be possible but a lot of work to be done even for that.
Cmon Roan:)
Hi Gray1 and others including Gotreal
I assume like me,I have been do my workings regarding profits on Copper for Sable and everything else not included with the IRH deal at about $4000 per ton.
If it is now about $6000 or less the erosion on profits on my workings is about 25-30%.
So referring to the graph that Gotreal showed us all it will be even more difficult to achieve the profits to
get to £1.20 unless there is a sizable bid when we are producing over 50,000 tonnes per annum excluding IRH
as we get a 30% free carry plus management which I agree is substantial but it still changes the numbers
Refining at Sable or a third party I should have said obviously they process it through the modules first will depend on oxide/sulphide split.
Thanks Gray1
Regards
RNS 12th of December Edzi. Costs less than $4k/ton for the waste copper project. This is what IRH signed up for. They can process this at Sable or a third party.
Gray1
Thank you for your post, I am happy to be corrected but the cost of $4000-$3800 was a costs that was referred to Sable
before IRH ever came into the picture. Please someone tell me I am right or wrong
Regards
Thanks Mikie, all sounds great, I just hope this constant flitting around is neither detrimental or distracting.
What you say Edzi is fine. I always find your comments to be reasonable and balanced. If you look at my post a little further down there is a difference in cost between the two processes.
Artisan mining is less than $6k per ton but the IRH processing costs has the potential to be as low as $3.8k that is where the confusion is I believe.
On a slightly different point
I see that there are a lot of questions regarding sites, how much is there, where they are, where they are going to
process, etc etc.. I'm sure that the artisan mines were not in the equation when they announced the IRH deal.
I am also sure that the Company has not yet made it's mind up regarding where things are going to happen because I'm sure there are various deals they are looking at and the whole Zambian business is so fluid.
I am the first to comment on the communication that has improved now Neal Reynolds is in charge of it.
However because everything is fluid I can to a certain extent understand why nothing has been said in Concret.
However even when it is said in Concrete ( I refer to the unit being painted and then sent to Zambia to start commissioning) It's still not factual, like all of a sudden we are talking about $6000 or below for processing Copper
when to my ears it was $4000 and below in fact a figure of $3800 was mentioned. That is the entire problem with
JLPbut it's not worth banging on about it because Mikie will say I'm rude and negative
Good afternoon all
I really don't know why I'm doing this but here goes.
Mikie
I wrote a post yesterday reffering to you and you responded to it bu saying I am rude.
If I have upset you I am forever sorry as that is not my feelings at all towards you.
I have shown the post that I sent to 4 people asking if it was rude because I was surprised
at your response. They all said it was direct, a bit blunt but certainly not rude.
I doubt that you are a snowflake so I would again apologise if you thought it rude but for the
life of me I can't see it. Keep your over enthusiastic posts going as it keeps you happy but to me they
are built on hope to realism. I'm sorry if you find the last comment rude.
Gotreal
I do not and will not apologise to you as unfortunately I find you as I said a waste of time.
Your graph that you showed yesterday (if my eyes are correct) shows the SP going up in
a straight line ( please correct me if I am wrong) but on that basis and on that basis only
I have only seen that in a share that has had a bid , which may happen. Do I see the SP going to
£1.20 and remember I said 3 years, If Copper goes through the $12000 mark and stays there for a considerable amount
of time maybe but JLP would have to be producing over 100,000 tons of Copper on it's own without IRH.
That is also possible but I always err on the side of caution and realism. Would I like the SP to go to £1.20?
NO I would like it to go to £100,00 per share at least, the answer is of course I would.
Shulvin
Regarding EPS. Ther are 2 ways of calculating EPS.
One way is if a Company is paying a dividend, and the other is without a dividend.
JLP are not paying a Dividend so you have to determine nett income from the previous year
Then determine the number of shares in the market aand the number of shares outstanding and use
both of these figures to get EPS. As I'm sure you know, you can get historic EPS and forward guidance
EPS and EPS in the F/Y you are in. So the number of shares in the market changes the EPS
I am not standing infront of a post blindfolded with my hands behind my back which are tied
PLEASE START SHOOTING !!
Mikie,
Monkoyo 25k/month starting in sept 24 to be processed at Sable. I don't know the full amount sable can process/month (output capacity 16k of contained copper).
2 artisan mines signed up at 120k processing material/per year each, 10k/month each.
3 more being worked on now from last RNS so a total of 50k/month from these. That's Roan full operating capacity I believe but some could be sent to Sable. Cost of processing these under $6k/ton but options to buy majority interests of each mine at $1.5 mill max thereby lowering future costs.
The IRH modules some to be sent to Sable to be refined but if Sable becomes full then can be sent for 3rd party refining. This is where they can reduce costs down to $3.8k with economies of scale. 30% to JLP after costs.
Output will depend on Copper percentage grade around 1.5% for IRH modules and 1-3% for artisan mines. Not sure about Monkoyo grades will have another look. Also will depend on copper oxide/sulphide mix. That is how I understand it
Seis, Gray, Frog, i think the original plan was to send material from the waste rock project and M to Roan and Sable late this year when they come on line. With Artisanal and opportunistic feed being used to fill in while they were waiting for M and the IRH deal. I am guessing the small mine plan has evolved so much, they have realised this is an industry in itself and will fill Roan and Sable many times over for many years. Plus the small mines have the potential to be developed into bigger mines like M. I now think all material from IRH deal will go direct to market or be refined at Mopani. Jubilee will soon need more refining capacity and i believe the earnings will soon be there to support it.
Thanks Ardbeggar been there with the kids no sleep turns you into a zombie in no time. Hope your baby gets better soon. They always seems to pick something or another up when they are little.