Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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What is about Bio*Axterix ?
What is about order supplier fashion industry ?
I think the future i bright.
Undoubtedly a disappointing RNS. Cleaning and beauty revenues down on prior year, noone expected that. No real explanation for why other than inventory build - I would not expect it to account for all the difference, so where has the growth been in these sectors? Cash also a growing concern with a likely raise in 2022, as break even isn't forecasted till next year. There are snippets to cling onto, together with the recent research note but as a whole this is underwhelming and there are growing question marks here - that leads to PI uncertainty which will depress the SP for some time.
It would be good if John could do another Investor Presentation, although the last couple have been underwhelming and haven't revealed much. These will be bottom drawer now for a while I feel, they're not going to experience the upturn I expected in the short term
Hi Blue
I guess it is easy to interpret a statement in any way you desire, a worst case or best case situation.
Yes they have $700K in cash, but what is sitting in finished goods and what revenues are still outstanding, as you say insurance payment for production disruption etc. so is it played down slightly.
Think that if you look back, the second half of the year has been where we have historically done better revenue wise.
I guess that a lot of this is conjecture on our behalf, I personally still believe that ITX will be very successful.
Remember there are quite a few within ITX who have sizeable holdings, so also have a vested interest in its success.
As they say time will tell, and patience is a virtue.
ATB
AJP
We are on something like 5.5x sales for 2022, here… (£3.5mn of revenues on a market cap of £19/20mn). This is a long, long way from the ‘bubble’ sales multiples currently being compressed by markets in the US.
The RNS clearly steers us towards additional revenue lines in the near term, too - all off a cost base which is low and well under control.
You don’t have to dream about ‘futures transformed’ to buy this stock. I view it as an early stage growth stock in the highly dependable and highly rated consumer staples sector. Buy.
Excellent dealing Kerry
I think that everyone should list their issues and raise them during the final results/investors presentation, which should be the end of March as it looks like we are following the same sort of schedule as last year.
ATB
AJP
Some of that was me! I am very disappointed with the tone of the RNS (as with previous RNSs). I understand the ‘undersell, over deliver’ comments below, but feel that more substance around company strategies could be added to the RNSs. Statements around certain sectors dropping should be countered with ‘and this is what we are going to do about it’.
That said, I have averaged down on this drop as I do have faith in the USP of this company
Hi All
Looks to me like someone is eagerly mopping up todays sells, quite a few 100,000 share purchases going through, must be rubbing their hands at this level.
Onwards and upwards.
ATB
AJP
Sales numbers are distorted by customers stock pilling Itaconix products - the customer has to have good supplies of product to make their retail products.
So, with relatively few customers peaks and troughs are inevitable.
I get investors frustrations with the RNS, BUT at 4 pence a share with an 18m market cap I still think it’s a sound investment. Just the Intellectual Property and Patents are worth more than the market cap. If they don’t deliver this year I imagine there are plenty of much bigger companies out there who would snap up Itaconix with the change in their pocket! At these levels I will continue to hold and add.
Not surprised with the fall given an awful RNS. No clarity of why market conditions meant some sales areas fell off a cliff and others improved. All well and good to say 2022 will meet market expectations but no explanation of how this will be achieved except for a lot of marketing waffle.
I would say ‘Market expectations’ are pretty miserable unless the company can provide some hard figures backed by analysis.
Proceeds from the last cash raise in June 2021 bolstered working capital and funded the purchase of a strategic stockpile of raw materials - todays update confirms that they are continuing to manage stock prudently.
So, with the news today that trading is in line with market expectations - that could mean that there will be a small net profit - therefore, I think that it is unlikely that there will be a need for a further fund raise.
Hi Blue
Is it not the case that the cash in hand is just a snapshot in time, so has to be taken as such, do not think that there will be any need at this point for a further cash injection, again as per finnCap report, but potentially in the longer term 1/2 years away
Definitely sitting on what I have and will be adding at these levels.
These are bargain basement prices.
ATB
AJP
Fair point Blue on the cash. We shall see & know pretty quick I think. The last fundraiser was mid-COVID and those investors, one can only assume, saw the runway being built to 2023/24 and beyond - so 12p wasn’t a problem. I do remember a few presentations back (for FY2020 I think) JS said “some months had already been breakeven.” If the company raises more cash that way, that is a truly thumping endorsement. If they need to go to market, he might need to give us a bit of help by addressing stuff like this:
I’d like to know his current view on when each month will be breakeven (won’t be this year) and some information on the new VP Sales successes on the Business Development front after more than a year in the job. Not forgetting BioAsterix. There was a revenue curve timeline also given a while back and I’d really like to how it’s recalibration is currently looking.
In fact, I’m going to email him on that last point!
Hi All
Do not think that there was anything that we had not been advised in the finnCap report earlier in the month.
"Although market volatility will continue in 2022, achievement of commercial milestones and advances in major customer projects in 2021 have already created substantial progress towards market expectations for 2022."
Market expectation for 2022 is $ 4.7 million so much to look forward too.
Think that we have see the usual knee jerk reaction this morning, but would expect this to rise consistently through the year as further advances are made in both current and future ingredients/products, think that we should come out of COVID in a much stronger position.
Huge opportunity to get in at these prices.
ATB
AJP
AIMHO
That about sums it up Bod. 2023 and beyond, which has always been on the cards. I’m looking forward especially to new initiative announcements during the course of this year, now that we are all learning to live with COVID.
"Under promise"!!!! I'll say, only 18% down today.
Short-term struggles, but long-term the future is looking good.
The market won't like the drop in numbers for a couple of their revenue streams, and will react only according to the bad news (just the general mood of the markets at the moment).
It will take a good RNS to properly lift the sp again, but for patient investors this will offer some great opportunities to add to holdings at a good price.
ITX is a well-managed company, fiscally responsible and preferring to under-promise. The global economy will only move towards what ITX is selling. Happy to hold for 2023 and beyond.
I think the news around VELAFRESH odour control sales is the big positive news i expected!
No doubt this 70% increase in revenue has a lot to do with their expansion into asian market.
I previously said I felt revenue from odour control would overtake revenue from dishwasher detergent once customers in china take off, this huge uptake in a short period of time suggests I may have been correct.
"Hygiene revenues are expected to be $0.5 million for FY21, a 70 percent increase from $0.3 million in FY20"
GLA
All looking good to me - onwards and upwards with plenty more to come from new market opportunities.
Also managing to pass on most cost increases.
At least there were no shocks and trading was in line with market expectations. The company’s hygiene ingredients seem to be the current star of the show. I think John Shaw’s comment at the end is very positive. "Although market volatility will continue in 2022, achievement of commercial milestones and advances in major customer projects in 2021 have already created substantial progress towards market expectations for 2022."
Makes disappointing reading. I am under water on this stock, and was hoping for more. Looks like a hold into 2023 for recovery