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Interesting views being expressed about various methods and techniques employed in decision making and where and when to invest . That’s absolutely fine and it’s what works for you at the end of day. I’ve always remembered something I read many years ago ( back In the eighties when I started buying a few shares) that once you’ve done your research and due diligence and decided on the share(s) / sector , always be happy with a profit even if selling at 10/15% lower than recent highs. Equally, buying on the lows in similar fashion in shares like ITM has worked for me.
If prices do slip, don’t be too tempted to chase a share down by averaging thinking it’ll be ok (you might get lucky but don’t count on it) and don’t be against using the ‘stop loss’ to help you sleep at night. I wouldn’t mind betting there’s a few in place to hedge against a negative reaction tomorrow.
GLA.
I used to forecast a lot too, our saying was " the forecast is always wrong". I spoke too a load of professional traders and reviewed fund managers and concluded that 11% was above average for the city. Since I take very little time to achieve it I feel comfortable.
Cheers Bilbs. Very interesting read and glad you can sleep at night. I would surmise that your approach is way more sensible than most. Part of my real job involved a great deal of forecasting. The one thing I learnt was you’re never right , just wrong by varying degrees. You ’re up , you’re down , hopefully they nett out and you end up roughly in the right ( political ) place. In terms of investments you win , you lose , the secret is to make sure none of the losses are significant. Conversely every now and then you win big. My big wins have come from sticking with my gut. Companies like Vestas , AMS , various others and latterly ITM. I’m pretty sure ITM has a long way to go , ups and downs expected for sure , Monday will be interesting and I’m expecting a chance to play. If the results don’t produce the normal retreat it could be we see the opposite and back up to highs , possibly more. Great place to be and good luck , hopefully ITM will carry on smashing your 11%’s.
10 years ago I paid out my £2k to Nakedtrader and went to one of his presentations followed by a friend's of his. While some of his identification processes are different from mine I discovered that he was very organised in his process, in selection, in timing and in selling. He used each deal as an experiment and challenged his thinking all the time, his friend, who operated a completely different process, did the same and was very honest with herself about success and failure.
She has stopped trading, she decided she was spending too much time working and too little meeting people, he continues (and of course makes a load of money from his shows) but the important issue is having a selection/timing process and have a management process and measure/review the results.
But you decide.
I described it as a Dog of a company as per the Boston Consultant Definition. A small share of a non-growing market and since no one cared where their hydrogen comes from the market was Hydrogen. I think my definition was about right. The environment has changed over the last year where green hydrogen is understood as a useful product and suddenly ITM has a growing opportunity but still no market . However, the sales are still not there only hope is there. One day it will become a "?".
You can read more about this here https://www.smartdraw.com/growth-share-matrix/
I described the CEO as useless/dull when compared to other CEOs in a new green market eg Musk.
I still think the CEO is dull/silent/useless and his dullness has stunted ITM's growth and Hydrogen's growth in the UK. That he now is making connections with Toyota, Shell and LInde confirm that he needs them to make a business and kinder of supports my view that he could do a lot better. I understand the guy is very nice and very British which probably restricted from doing what was needed. The board is getting better skills on it and we have gone a long way from the days of having M Thatcher's famous jumper wearer on the team.
In terms of the Share Price (which is something completely different) ITM is one of my few "commitment" investments. I carry out two different processes for all my assets
1) Selecting assets that I want to invest in
2) Managing those assets in terms of buying and selling
Normally I select assets that have a track record of earning year on year between 15% and 25% for 5 years and that offer a standard deviation of less than 7.5%. (so straight up with little noise) While not perfect this means that when I do invest, as long as nothing significant happens to the asset and it behaves as it has for 5 years, timing is not an issue. I know what I'm going to earn before I earn it.
In management, I monitor against the asset's historic SP growth rate (including Divi) and within 2 standard deviations of that historic rate. I allow assets to improve on the historic rate if there is a reason not fall. Hence I sell or hold, or buy more.
ITM does not fall into 1) at all, but from "commitment" but I now manage it the same way as all others since buying back in at 40p.
Most years I make +11% on capital invested, it lets me sleep at night and uses up virtually no time on a daily basis. I tried gut and I found I remembered the wins and forgot the losses. Like many gamblers, I thought I was winning but all I was doing was breaking even. I prefer knowing that I'm earniing +11% but each to their own.
Bilbs. Not long ago you described ITM as a dog of a share and the CEO as worse than useless. I’m guessing the SP was maybe in the 20p’s? We’re all still here though so how have your measurements stacked up pre , during , and post your remarks? I’m not disagreeing with you I just find it hard to believe a scientific approach will always win out. It’s like the chart guys , endless theories and patterns , all superseded by a simple RNS most of the time.
if you ain't measuring you ain't managing it
Well done Seaangler ... January has been good for me too. Sold out on two highs - bought back in on the lows. Always easier when the profit is funding the buys and your capital is nice and safe.
I’m a bit like you, if it dips after Monday I can live with that and see as opportunity!!
Ps. Have hit myself with a few darts in the past.... ( ref Bilbs )
It’s always a guessing game , made easier by volatility. I played a few yesterday too , bought at 95p , sold today at 107p. Didn’t want everything tied up on Monday morning and still hold a bundle. If it does drop , and I’m really unsure if it will , I will most likely buy that 30k back plus a few more. Made a quick £3200 , great work if you can get it. My system is called gut feel backed up by long term faith in a cracking prospect. GWA
You’ve got to keep a close eye on this stock at the moment. I’ve been invested in ITM for 9 years and as many on here seen the frustrating times where the news is slow but kept the faith. You no longer can park it up in your portfolio, it’s a daily task and over the last two months I have been constantly monitoring maybe three or four times a day, such has been the huge activity in hydrogen stocks all over. January has given investors good return - if you’ve played your cards right- after all , isn’t that why we’re here. A PROFIT IS A PROFIT!!
Do you have a system or are you winging it?
Having a system, if only monitoring your winging it, you would develop a method that works. No monitoring and you are playing blindman's darts.
Same here. I literally sat watching them all day. Usually I buy and then they dip but for once 93 was a good point to get in. Wish I had filled my isa. Greeeeeeed! :-)
Well thank you , paid 93.2p, though I wish I had trusted my instincts and purchased far more, hindsight a wonderful thing.
Now I just need to get the exit point right - or maybe just hold forever?